What Statistics Matter Most in Football Predictions

March 5, 2024 by Staff

Statistics have always been a major part of football. While a great deal of the data collected in the sport's early years centered around basic score and individual stats, like wins/losses, interceptions, touchdowns, and field goals, new stats began to pop up as the game evolved. 

Soon, teams began to keep records of rushing yards, passing yards, and defensive tackles, and by the ‘70s, analytical publications started to gain traction. The inception of the passer rating system in 1973 marked a significant turning point for stats in football.

Today, statistics have become an integral part of the sport, with almost all professional teams in the major leagues having an analytics department. Everything is being scrutinized now, from draft picks to individual player movements.

Nevertheless, it's not just the players and teams who are benefiting from these stats. Fans all over the world, like the ones on https://sportzino.com/sports-book/overview, are also using them for their football predictions. Some might even argue that the increased availability of these stats has led to more accurate forecasts in recent years. But in order for you to excel in your data-driven predictions, you need to use the right information.

No one can guarantee success at all times — however, some stats are more important than others, and in this guide, we'll share them with you. 

Top Football Stats to Consider When Making Predictions

The influence of stats in modern football cannot be overstated. From the scouting of talents to players’ every move on the field — every move is calculated to perfection. You can take advantage of the abundance of these stats to make better football predictions. Here are the ones to consider.

• Current form: When predicting a football game, the first statistic to consider is the current form of both teams, which can be done by checking the data of their last seven games. While some teams will naturally be favorites based on their history, we've seen big teams falter over certain periods. If you're looking to back them in a specific matchup, it's best you judge based on their current form.
  
  
• H2H records: Some teams tend to play a certain way against specific opponents, which is mostly due to their tactical approach and player quality. Analyzing head-to-head records can help you identify trends between the two teams, which can lead to better predictions.
  
  
• Time of possession: Teams that hold possession longer tend to win more often because they limit their opponent’s scoring opportunities and wear out their defensive players early in the game. More control also means more chances to score.
  
  
• Turnover margins: Many might argue that pass interceptions and fumbles are heavily influenced by luck. Nevertheless, data has shown that teams with higher turnover margins win games. The fewer giveaways a team record, the more solid their defensive stats will be.
  
  
• Yardage: A team’s offensive and defensive yardage statistics are sometimes better performance indicators than total points scored or past results. Teams with higher passing and rushing yards tend to score more, while those that allow fewer offensive yards are usually better defensively. 
  
  
• Injuries and suspensions: Good players help win games. Some teams have players who are far more important than others in terms of contribution to the overall gameplay. The absence of these stars can heavily influence team performance. So, before making any predictions, ensure you're up-to-date with the team news regarding suspensions, injuries, and even burnouts.

Conclusion

While stats have definitely helped improve the quality of football predictions, they don’t offer an almighty formula. Ultimately, luck still plays a major role in the outcome of games. Moreover, the interpretation of statistics varies among players; different stats may tell different stories, so you shouldn't rely on a single parameter.