Weekly Picks + Feature Picks = 46 Games, 10 Projected Upsets

October 29, 2020 by Dave Congrove

A 46-game slate involving 92 FBS teams kicks off with a Thursday night double-header, followed by a 4-pack on Friday. If you've done the math, that leaves us with 40 games on Halloween Saturday for a spooktacular good time. The question is how many of the favored teams will get tricked rather than treated.

My Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com is projecting 10 outright upsets, a week after going 6-6 in its opposite picks and 7-5 ATS in those games. As you may recall, the computer picked the biggest upset of the year - Indiana's 36-35 overtime win versus Penn State.

The first opposite play on the board this week is on Thursday night with the computer taking home-standing Fresno State by 1.62 over Colorado State (-1.5) in a mild upset. Last week, the computer nailed Hawaii's upset of Fresno State.

This week, The computer is going against Hawaii (-2) on Friday night at Wyoming and taking the Cowboys as a 4.85-point upset pick.

Saturday's opposites include Baylor by a whopping 11.69 over visiting TCU (-3), and Georgia State by a comfortable 9.87 over undefeated Coastal Carolina (-4.5) in Atlanta.

Those picks, however, are far from being the computer's most surprising plays. That distinction would be a tie between the predicted upsets of Penn State over Ohio State, and Kentucky over Georgia.

Yes folks, the computer is projecting the Nittany Lions to recover from their opening loss at Indiana by edging the 13-point favorite Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium. The computer lists Penn State as the pick by just under a point (-0.95). Ohio State has won 7 of the last 8 in the series, including 3 straight, but 2 of those were by a single point. This is the only matchup this week of  two Top 25 teams in the AP poll with Ohio State ranked 3rd and Penn State 18th.

The computer is also taking Kentucky over 14.5-point favorite Georgia in Lexington. The Wildcats are a 0.62-point computer favorite, a week after taking their own 20-10 upset loss at Missouri. Georgia, which is coming off a bye week, has won 10 straight in the series and is 19-2 vs. the 'Cats in this century.

Check out all the other upset selections in our Feature Picks, along with six choices in the 'Easy Pickins' category and 4 in the "Hold Your Horses" arena.

Some of the other great games to watch this weekend include Michigan State-Michigan, Boise State-Air Force, TCU-Baylor, Memphis-Cincinnati, and Texas-Oklahoma State.

You can get the computer's pick of every game here.

Schedule Changes

San Jose State and New Mexico will now be played at San Jose State instead of in Albuquerque do to the restrictions in place in the Land Of Enchantment, and Covid-19.

The Louisiana at Appalachian State game which was originally suppose to have been played 3 weeks ago (Oct. 7) has now been rescheduled for Friday, December 4

FCS vs. FBS

31 FBS teams are playing a total of 35 games against FCS schools this season.

No such games are on the docket this week. this past week, the FCS recorded its first victory of the season against a FBS school when Jacksonville State upended FIU 19-10. Chattanooga almost notched another FCS upset, but Tyrrell Pigrome hit Craig Burt Jr. for a 4-yard TD and the 13-10 win with 1:21 to play. Mercer gave Army West Point no such concern in a 49-3 blowout loss. It was the third, and final, game versus a FCS opponent for Army.

NOT UPDATED - FBS teams are 27-1 in such matchups this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,462-128 (.919).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here are the FCS wins vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 34 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 28 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 26 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 14 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 47-21 at home vs. Syracuse on Saturday, October 24.
Next: Hosts Boston College on Saturday, October 31.

NOTRE DAME - Won 11 straight over-all (FBS-longest)
Last: Won 45-3 at Pittsburgh on Saturday, October 24.
Next: at Georgia Tech on Saturday, October 31.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 15 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight road games (tied with Akron for FBS longest).
Last: Game at Colorado State on Saturday was canceled due to Covid issues at New Mexico.
Next: Hosts San Jose State on Saturday, October 31.

AKRON - Lost 17 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 8 straight home games (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight road games (tied with New Mexico for FBS longest).
Last: Lost 52-3 at home to Ohio on November 26, 2019.
Next: Season opener at home versus Western Michigan on Wednesday, November 4.