Weekend Preview: Could a Ho-hum Schedule Create Chaos?

November 10, 2022 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

It's funny, but we never know where this weekend preview is going to take us until the process of writing it gets underway.

We'll start by saying that 129 of 131 teams are seeing action this week with only BYU and UTEP getting a bye week.

Thus, it feels like one of those setups for a week where upsets could run rampant as it' also a week where only one game exists between teams in the Super 16 Poll. That game sends No. 10 Alabama to No. 11 Ole Miss as a 12-point opening favorite and an 11.45-point computer play.

The computer has 10 games where it has an opposite outright winner against the opening spread, but none of those involve a team ranked in the Top 25.

But, the playoff committee's top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs have to go face the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville where a loss would put a major kink on the entire existing flawed system. The numbers don't call for an outright upset, but the computer only favors Georgia by 8.17 against a 16.5-point opening line.

Conversely, the computer's top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are probably not in any sort of jeopardy of losing at home to Indiana. Ryan Day's team opened as a 40.5-point favorite and they are a 42.99-point pick by the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com.

Michigan also seems secure as a 28.5-point favorite against a projected 32.93-point computer spread, but stranger things have happened in the Big House, such as App State's win in 2007.

TCU always seems to put itself behind the 8-ball, then claw its way out of trouble. This week, the Horned Frogs visit Texas as a 6.14-point computer underdog against a 7-point opening line that favors the Longhorns. TCU wins the regular season Big XII title with a win.

Tennessee seems safe with Missouri at home. The Vols opened as a 20.5-point favorite and get a 21.06-point nod from the computer.

Oregon, which has won 8 straight since getting demolished by Georgia in the season opener, is a 12.5-point opening favorite at a dangerous Washington squad. And yet the computer pushes that margin to 18.37.

Southern Cal hosts Colorado on Friday night in a game that could serve as nothing more than an embarrassment to the Buffaloes who opened as 34-point underdogs but are somehow only 20.22-point dogs by the computer.

Meanwhile, UCLA hosts Arizona, Clemson looks to rebound at Louisville, Penn State has to deal with Maryland at home, and North Carolina can clinch the ACC Coastal with a win at Wake Forest.

SEE: Schedule and Picks

Some of the bigger games might be a bit off the radar as UCF heads to Tulane in a key American Conference matchup, while Bowling Green, Buffalo and Ohio continue to battle to the wire for MAC East supremacy.

After an upset loss at home to Michigan State, Illinois can still clinch the Big Ten West with a win on Saturday at home over Purdue.

UTSA has the upper hand in Conference USA and hosts Louisiana Tech with a solid chance to get to 6-0 in league play.

San Diego State hosts San Jose State in a key MWC West division showdown while Boise State can move a step closer to clinching the Mountain division with a win at Nevada.

FCS vs. FBS

There will be 119 FBS vs. FCS matchups this season with App State, Army and Marshall each playing two such games, and 116 other FBS schools playing one apiece.

New Mexico State hosts Lamar this week,, and the final FBS-FCS matchups occur on November 19 with Austin Peay at Alabama, Utah Tech at BYU, ETSU at Mississippi State, and North Alabama at Memphis.

The FBS is 106-8 vs. the FCS this year, and 1,680-148 (.919) since we began tracking this in 2003.

Here are the FCS wins in 2022:
September 2: William & Mary 41, Charlotte 24
September 3: Delaware14, Navy 7
September 10: Weber State 35, Utah State 7
September 10: Incarnate Word 55, Nevada 41
September 10: Holy Cross 37, Buffalo 31
September 10: Eastern Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 57 (7 OT's)
September 17: Southern Illinois 31, Northwestern 24
September 24: Sacramento State 41, Colorado State 10

Streaks - Current FBS Longest

CLEMSON - Won 38 straight home games. Had 14-game over-all winning streak end.
Last: Lost 35-13 at Notre Dame on Saturday, November 5.
Next: Visits Louisville on Saturday, November 12.

MICHIGAN - Won 11 straight conference games.
Last: Won 52-17 at Rutgers on Saturday, November 5.
Next: Hosts Nebraska on Saturday, November 12.

GEORGIA - Won 9 straight true road games.
Last: Won 27-13 at home over Tennessee on Saturday, November 5.
Next: Visits Mississippi State on Saturday, November 12.

AKRON - Lost 8 straight.
Last: Lost 27-9 at home to Miami (O) on Saturday, October 29.
Next: Hosts Eastern Michigan on Tuesday, November 8.

MASSACHUSETTS - Lost 12 straight to FBS schools, lost 22 straight road games.
Last: Lost 27-10 at UConn on Friday, November 4.
Next: Visits Arkansas State on Saturday, November 12.

NORTHWESTERN - Lost 7 straight at home.
Last: Lost 21-7 at home to Ohio State on Saturday, November 5.
Next: Visits Minnesota on Saturday, November 12.

VANDERBILT - Lost 26 straight conference games.
Last: Lost 38-27 at home to South Carolina on Saturday, November 5.
Next: Visits Kentucky on Saturday, November 12.