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Tonight begins a string of seven consecutive weeks of beginning the college football schedule on a Tuesday. Most of those in the month of October are CUSA games before November sees a MACtion takeover.
However, there is also a Sun Belt game tonight that looks good in names but falls short on expectations of how much this game could've meant in the standings. Nonetheless, it is particularly important for the home team, Appalachian State brings a 3-2 over-all record, but a 1-0 conference mark, into battle with a disappointing Coastal (Carolina) team that is only 2-3 over-all and 0-2 in the Sun Belt. If you think that means the Mountaineers are heavy favorites, we will have to do our best Lee Corso impersonation and say, "Not so fast!" The line opened at 6.5 in favor of the home team, but the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com are taking Grayson McCall and the Chanticleers by a scant 0.15 to pull off the upset for 1st-year head coach Tim Beck who replaced Jamey Chadwell when he left to take the reins at Liberty.
Speaking of Liberty, the Flames are one of the subjects of another contest tonight as they visit Rich Rodriguez' Jacksonville (Jax) State Gamecocks.
This is a battle between two of the three remaining teams that are undefeated in CUSA play, with Western Kentucky being the other. Liberty, in fact, is one of 14 teams in the FBS with an unblemished record over-all. The Flames hope to snag the best reward possible at the end of a season which, of course, is the lone automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl game. That bid goes to the school with the highest ranking from a Group of Five conference.
Because Jacksonville State is in a transition year from the FCS to the FBS, the Gamecocks can't officially be crowned CUSA champion. But, they can be invited to a bowl game if there aren't enough teams with a record of 6-6 or better to fill the available slots. In the regard, both teams are battling tonight to become bowl eligible.
The odds opened in favor of Liberty by 6-1/2 over Jax State, but the computer heavily favors the home team by 10.38.
(SEE: Weekly Picks)
The other game tonight has Louisiana Tech at MTSU. The Bulldogs are a somewhat surprising 2-1 in conference play, but just 3-4 over-all in Sonny Cumbie's second year as head coach. The Blue Raiders are just 1-5 over-all and 0-2 in the conference in head coach Rick Stockstill's 18th season in Murfreesboro. Despite the disparity in won-loss records, the oddsmakers liked MTSU by 3 at the open with the computer pushing that number up to 10.94.
Two more CUSA games are featured on Wednesday night. One sees that other new FBS team in play as Sam Houston heads to New Mexico State where the Aggies opened as 3.5-point favorites, but a slightly lower 2.58 computer pick. The other has FIU hosting UTEP with the oddsmakers taking the home Panthers by 1.5 while the computer goes opposite with the Miners by 3.10.
We'll tee 'em up and kick 'em off again on Thursday night with a pair of contests featuring an American Athletic Conference (AAC) clash, and a Big 12 encounter. Those games have SMU at East Carolina, and West Virginia at Houston. The Mustangs opened as an 11.5-point pick, but are well under that at 3.09 from the computer. And the WVU-Houston game is another computer opposite play as it likes the home team Cougars by 1.89 against a 2.5-point spread that favors the visiting 'Eers.
Three more games on Friday means we'll have ten in the books before the Saturday morning pre-game shows hit the airways. But don't worry as there are still 45 games left for Saturday.
The Friday Night Lights action will be absent head coach Eric Taylor and the Dillon Panthers of past Prime-Time TV fame. But it will feature head coach Troy Taylor as head coach taking on and Coach Prime when Stanford visits Colorado. The Buffaloes opened as 10.5-point sportsbook favorites while the computer weighs-in with a fractionally lower 10.40-point margin. Colorado will be looking to improve to 2-2 in PAC-12 play and pull within one more victory of becoming bowl eligible. The Cardinal are just looking to get off the snide as they bring marks of 1-4 over-all and 0-3 in conference play to Boulder.
Friday also gives us Fresno State at Utah State in a Mountain West battle that both teams must win to have any shot at staying in the hunt for the conference title. The Bulldogs are coming off a 24-19 loss at Wyoming in which they were favored by 6.5 at the sportsbooks but just 0.55 by the computer. The Aggies were 44-24 home winners over Colorado State as a 3-point underdog while the computer had Utah State by a 7.75.
The third Friday night game will actually be the first one to kick off when Tulane visits Memphis for an AAC confrontation. The oddsmakers and computer both side with the visiting Green Wave as the line opened at 3.5 while the computer calls for a hefty 11.29-point margin. Both teams are 4-1 over-all and 1-0 in conference play. The home team has won six straight in the series after Memphis had won 11 in-a-row from 2002-2017.
(8) Oregon at (6) Washington
The homestanding Huskies opened as 2.5-point favorites, and the computer says they have a 6.37-point advantage.
This game features
- a pair of Heisman candidate quarterbacks - Bo Nix of Oregon and Michael Penix, Jr, of Washington,
- two of the fourteen remaining undefeated teams in the country,
- 2 of the 11 remaining undefeated teams among Power 5 conferences,
- 2 of the three remaining undefeated teams in the PAC-12,
- the No. 1 QB in the nation for average passing yards per game at 399.8 for Penix,
- the top-two offenses in the nation with Washington at 569.4 ypg and Oregon at 557.8 (USC is 4th),
- The nos. 2 and 3 scoring offenses in the nation with Oregon at 51.6 and Washington at 46.0 (USC is 1st),
- the No. 5 (tie) scoring defense in the nation with Oregon at 11.8.
(9) USC at (21) Notre Dame
The Irish opened as 2,5-point favorites while the computer agrees, but with a margin of 1.89. USC looks to stay undefeated and somewhat in control of its own destiny to make the college football playoff, but is coming off a narrow escape at home of an expected challenge from Arizona. The Trojans wound up with a 43-41 triple-overtime win as freshman QB Noah Fifita of the Wildcats threw for 303 and 5 TD's with 1 pick while completing 25-of-35 throws. USC's Caleb Williams, whom most consider to be favored to become only the second player to win back-to-back Heismans, wound up winning the game for USC, but was just 14-of-25 for 205 yards with 1 TD. Instead, he used his escapability and raw athleticism to score 3 TD's. The Irish are coming off a 33-20 loss at Louisville for a second setback of the season that ended any hopes of them reaching the 4-team playoff. Now, Notre Dame is simply playing to turn its best possible record and compete for a New Year's Six bowl bid.
(22) UCLA at (14) Oregon State
UCLA has a loss at Utah. Oregon State has a loss at Washington State. Both are fighting to stay in the PAC-12 conversation, but one of them will be saddled with a second conference loss.
(25) Missouri at (23) Kentucky
Both teams were surprising 5-0 starters. Both lost last week. Mizzou put up a fight at home, but fell 49-39 at home to LSU. Kentucky took their 'Cats to a 'Dawg fight and got mauled 51-13 in Georgia's most impressive win of the season. Neither of these schools want to lose a second straight game. Missouri is led by QB Brady Cook who is 9th nationally in passing yards per game, while Kentucky has leaned on RB Ray Davis who is 11th nationally with an average of 108.83 per game, but 280 of his 653 total came against Florida.
This is a list of games involving schools that feature a Top 25 team against a school that is also receiving votes, or games where both teams are just outside the Top 25.
(26) Miami, FL at (12) North Carolina
The 'Canes are back! Well, they might have been, had their head coach not snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by needlessly running the ball in the closing seconds vs. Georgia Tech. By now, everyone knows they fumbled the ball and wound up losing 23-20 just two plays later on a 44-yard TD passing with 1 second left. Had they won, they'd be in the fight with Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina and Duke for the ACC title, and there would be 15, not 14, undefeated teams in the FBS.
Can Miami overcome one of the dumbest head coaching moments in recent history?
Can the players rally around a coach who tried to throw his own player under the bus? In his postgame press conference, Cristobal appeared to blame the running back for a fumble on a play that that never should have been called. The comment was classless, and dumber than the play call itself.
Can Mario Cristobal not make a third bone-headed in-game decision? Remember, he did the same thing at Oregon in 2018 that caused a loss to Stanford.
The oddsmakers installed North Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite. The computer says this may get to blowout level with the Tar Heels favored by 14.61.
(27) Wyoming at (28) Air Force
Air Force is now the team with the best odds for a perfect season. The Academy is the only team from a Group of Five conference that is in the Top 25 of the Congrove Computer Rankings, sitting at No. 20. Wyoming is ranked 45th, but is tied with the Falcons and Boise State at 2-0 in the conference. The Cowboys are 5-1 over-all, but the loss was a respectable 31-10 defeat at Texas. Air Force opened as a 10.5-point favorite and the computer tacks on an extra 2.42 points to make it 12.92. Wyoming was a 17-14 upset winner in Laramie a year ago in the conference opener for both teams.
(29) Iowa at (33) Wisconsin
Who will win the other half of the B1G and get a shot at Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State in the conference championship game? The odds have always favored Wisconsin or Iowa so, this week, we get to see which one emerges with the upper hand. The oddsmakers have the Badgers by 9.5 while the computer sees it much closer with a 4.95-point separation.
(7) Oklahoma, (11) Texas, (13) Ole Miss
Fourteen teams enter the week undefeated. The Oregon-Washington game is the only head-to-head matchup of the schools on this list. But the computer also sees losses by Liberty (at Jax State), and USC (at Notre Dame).
Here are the odds, and the computer picks, for the games involving those unblemished programs.
ACC
Florida State, 5-0 (-17.5) by 20.70 vs. Syracuse
Louisville, 6-0 (-7.5) by 3.05 at Pitt
North Carolina 5-0 (-3.5) by 14.61 vs. Miami
B1G
Michigan, 6-0 (-33.5) by 46 vs. Indiana
Ohio State, 5-0 (-19.5) by 19.13 at Purdue
Penn State, 5-0 (-42.5) by 49.25 vs. UMass
Big 12
Oklahoma, 6-0 - Idle
CUSA
Liberty, 5-0 (-6.5) lose by 10.38 at Jax State
MWC
Air Force, 6-0 (-10.5) by 12.92 vs. Wyoming
PAC-12
Oregon, 5-0 (+2.5) lose by 6.37 at Washington
Southern California, 6-0 (+2.5) lose by 1.89 at Notre Dame
Washington, 5-0 (-2.5) by 6.37 vs. Oregon
SEC
Georgia 6-0
SUN BELT
James Madison 5-0
CUSA
Sam Houston 0-5
MWC
Nevada 0-5
This season has 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army playing two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that do NOT play a FCS program, 7 are in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three are Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
FBS schools were 2-0 this past week as Virginia beat William & Mary 27-13, and Northwestern hung on for a 23-20 win over Howard.
No FBS-FCS games take place this weekend.
The FBS programs are 106-4 this year against the FCS schools. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,792-152 (.922) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Here are the FCS wins in 2023, so far:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
GEORGIA - Won 23 straight home games, 23 straight over-all, and 12 straight true road games.
Last: 51-13 home win vs. Kentucky on Saturday, October 7.
Next: Visits Vanderbilt on Saturday, October 14.
MICHIGAN - Won 18 straight conference games.
Last: 52-10 win at Minnesota on Saturday, October 7.
Next: Hosts Indiana on Saturday, October 14.
NEVADA - Lost 15 straight over-all, 15 straight to FBS teams, and 7 straight home games.
Last: 27-9 loss at Fresno State on Saturday, September 30.
Next: Home vs. UNLV on Saturday, October 14.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - Lost 7 straight home games.
Last: 55-14 win at Akron on Saturday, October 7.
Next: Hosts Ohio on Saturday, October 14.
NORTHWESTERN - Lost 13 straight road games.
Last: 23-20 home win over FCS member Howard on Saturday, October 7.
Next: Visits Nebraska on Saturday, October 21.
NEW MEXICO - Lost 13 straight conference games.
Last: Lost 35-26 at Wyoming on Saturday, September 30.
Next: Hosts San Jose State on Saturday, October 14.