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11 of the 31 games on this week's schedule could be decided by less than 4 points, according to predictions based on my Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. By comparison, the computer only had 2 games in that range a week ago.
The college football slate kicks off on Thursday with Tulane favored by 3.31 points to ruin Houston's season-opener in a CUSA matchup. Thursday also delivers a Sun Belt affair with Texas State visiting Troy as 6.,76-point underdog.
Prepare for an ACC clash on Friday night with Louisville favored by 9.79 at Georgia Tech.
The games on Saturday with the narrowest margins are:
Picks for Syracuse, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Navy and Texas A&M, are all opposite the Vegas line.
A sixth computer upset pick has Virginia Tech by 6.34 on the road at North Carolina.
Marquee matchups are scarce, even as Florida State visits Notre Dame and Oklahoma tackles Texas. The "Noles aren't expected to come close against the Irish, while the Longhorns and Sooners are both coming off losses.
The downtrodden Seminoles are a hefty 20.5-point underdog by the oddsmakers and the computer puts the margin at 21.86. The Irish won 42-13 in South Bend two years ago. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is a 2.5-point Vegas choice and a 6.16-point computer pick in the renewal of their Red River Rivalry. The Sooners have yet to defeat a FBS team with the only victory occurring the opener against FCS member Missouri State. It's the first 0-2 start for the Sooners since 1996.
While those games have lost their lustre, there is a pair of ACC tilts worthy of "marquee" recognition as Clemson hosts Miami, and North Carolina welcomes Virginia Tech.
Clemson is the top-ranked team in the AP and Coaches' polls and No. 2 by the computer. Miami is ranked 7th in the AP and Coaches polls, but just 23rd by the computer. Even with its lofty ranking, Miami is still a whopping 15-point Vegas underdog, and the computer likes Clemson by a full touchdown more than Vegas at 22.61 points. These teams haven't met since 2017 when the Tigers won 38-3. They have only played 6 times this century.
A game that figures to be much closer than the Tigers-'Canes is the Hokies and Tar Heels battle in Chapel Hill. North Carolina (2-0, 2-0 ACC) is 8th in the AP poll, 9th in the Coaches' poll and 18th in the computer rankings. Virginia Tech (2-0, 2-0 ACC) is ranked 7th by the computer, 18th by the coaches, and 19th in the AP. UNC is a 5.5-point favorite in most sportsbooks, but the computer has Virginia Tech as a 6.34-point choice. The Hokies have won the last 4 meetings and 6 of the last 7. This is one of six opposite picks offered by the computer this week. Perhaps Virginia Tech's new defensive coordinator, Justin Hamilton, will finally get to make his debut after missing the first two games for issues related to the coronavirus.
An unexpectedly huge game in the Big 12 is this week's Kansas State-TCU matchup. The Wildcats downed Oklahoma two weeks ago, and the Horned Frogs upset the Longhorns this past Saturday. Kansas State is tied with Oklahoma State and Iowa State atop the Big 12 standings at 2-0, while TCU is 1-1. The computer gives the Frogs a slim 0.21-point advantage, but the sportsbooks list TCU by 10.
Alabama, the nation's 2nd-ranked team in the polls and top-ranked team by the computer, visits Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. The Rebels are 37th in the AP, 43rd in the Coaches, and 52nd in the computer rankings. Alabama is listed as 23.5-point Vegas favorite and gets a 24.25-point nod by the computer. Kiffin spent three season on Nick Saban's staff as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2014-2016. The Rebels are 1-1 after losing the opener to Florida 51-35 and edging Kentucky 42-41 in double-overtime. The offense has averaged 38.5 ppg but the defense has allowed 45.5 ppg. The Tide enters this contest fresh off a 52-24 blowout of Texas A&M.
Speaking of Texas A&M, the computer likes the Aggies by 3.25 to pull off the upset this week at home versus Florida. The Gators are a 7-point selection by the oddsmakers.
Get the computer's pick of every single game.
31 FBS teams will play a total of 35 games against FCS schools this season. Army has 3 such games on its schedule.
Just two such games take place this week as Arkansas State hosts Central Arkansas, and Army West Point entertains The Citadel.
FBS teams went 4-0 vs. FCS squads a week ago and are 22-0 in such matchups this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,457-127 (.920).
Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.
These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19
CLEMSON - Won 32 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 24 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 25 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 13 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 41-23 at home over Virgnia on Saturday, October 3.
Next: Hosts Miami on Saturday, October 10.
AIR FORCE - 9-game over-all winning streak leads nation.
Last: Won 40-7 at home versus Navy.
Next: visits San Jose State on Saturday, October 24.
NOTRE DAME - 8-game over-all wining streak is second in the nation.
Last: Won 52-0 vs. USF at home on Saturday, September 19.
Next: Hosts Florida State on Saturday, October 10.
ARKANSAS - Snapped a 10-game over-all losing streak, and a 20-game losing streak to conference teams, with a 21-14 upset win at Mississippi State.
Last: Won 21-14 at Mississippi State on Saturday, October 3.
Next: Visits Auburn on Saturday, October 10.
RUTGERS - Lost 21 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest)
Last: Lost 27-6 at Penn State on November 30, 2019.
Next: Season opener at Michigan State on Saturday, October 24.
AKRON - Lost 17 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 8 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 52-3 at home to Ohio on November 26, 2019.
Next: To be announced