Week 4 Preview: Notre Dame at Georgia Highlights Schedule

September 18, 2019 by Dave Congrove

There are a few games this week that college football fans circled months ago as a matchup they wanted to see. The wait is over as this is the week that Notre Dame seeks to avenge its 2017 home loss to Georgia, Wisconsin gets to prove they are for real with a home date versus Michigan, the Big 12 conference slate heats up with Texas entertaining Oklahoma State, Utah plays a key PAC-12 opener at Southern Cal on Friday, Auburn visits Texas A&M in an SEC showdown, and UCF hits the road for a second straight clash with a Power 5 school as the Knights visit Pitt.

Georgia won 20-19 in 2017 at South Bend. and Notre Dame will look to return the favor by stealing one in Athens. The line opened at 13-1/2 and hasn't budged much as it sits on 14 on Wednesday afternoon as I write this. The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com has it well under the spread, favoring the Bulldogs by 6.54. Georgia has averaged 49 points and 565 yards in 3 games against out-manned opposition (Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State), while Notre Dame allowed over 200 yards rushing to Louisville and New Mexico.

Wisconsin has blanked USF (49-0) and Central Michigan (61-0), so the first key for Michigan is to score and, preferably, score early.  Then the goal becomes to simply play defense because the Wolverine offense hasn't demonstrated the ability to win a shootout. The Badgers are a 3.5-point Vegas favorite, but a surprising 2.71-point computer underdog.

Texas seems like a Big 12 title contender and could be on course to face Oklahoma again in Arlington, come December. But for now, the Longhorns have to figure out how to beat Oklahoma State which hasn't lost in Austin since 2008 and owns an overall 4-game winning streak in the series. In spite of all that, Vegas likes Texas by 5 and the computer says make it 10.81.

Utah at USC in the Coliseum on Friday could go along way in determining which of those schools will be in the hunt with Arizona State for the south division title. I know it's early, but Colorado and Arizona don't look like contenders, and UCLA hasn't got a chance. Vegas takes the Utes by 4 while the computer makes an even-tighter 2.88.

It would be easy to conclude that Pittsburgh has no chance at all at knocking off UCF, but the Panthers only fell by 7 at Penn State. Hmmm, would Lee Corse give this one a "not so fast". The computer has Pitt by 6.13 while Vegas installed UCF as a 12-point favorite. Not sure what the computer's smoking, but I want some. UCF ranks 3rd nationally in total offense and 13th on defense. Pitt ranks 85th on offense and 37th on defense.

Is Nebraska going to get upset on another road trip? The computer's taking the same Illinois team that lost to Eastern Michigan last week to knock off the 'Huskers this week. Illinois is just 1-5 vs. Nebraska since these teams began competing as conference foes in 2013 and the lone win by Illinois came by 1 point, 14-13, in 2015. Nebraska has won each of the last 3 by no fewer than 15 points.

Jimbo Fisher's lone signature win at Texas A&M, thus far, was the 74-72 insanity in College Station last year. He'll a have a more-than reasonable shot at another signature win this week when his Aggies host Auburn. The Tigers prevailed 28-24 last year on Jarrett Stidham's 11-yard TD pass to Seth Williams with 1:47 left in the game. Stidham's gone and Williams could be another weapon that Auburn might be missing after he injured his shoulder against Tulane and didn't play against Kent State. Vegas installed A&M as a 4-point favorite while the computer 'favors' the Aggies by a fraction of a point (0.13).

Northwestern was the computer's preseason pick to repeat as west division champs in the Big Ten and history would suggest that another victory is almost a certainty this week. The Wildcats face a Michigan State program that they have defeated 4 of the last 5 times, including the last 3 in-a-row. Yet, the Spartans are favored by 9 in Vegas while the computer takes the 'Cats by 1.47.

If you're wondering what the likes of Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson and LSU are doing this week, the answer is that they are all basically idle. The Buckeyes host Miami (Ohio), the Tide entertains Southern Miss, and Tigers welcome Charlotte. LSU's opponent is slightly more staunch as the Baton Rouge Tigers head to Vanderbilt.

In other games, Florida hosts a Tennessee program that it has dominated since 2005, and Kansas hosts West Virginia after breaking a 48-game road losing streak to FBS schools with a 48-24 win at Boston College last Friday night.

FBS vs. FCS

114 games this year pit FBS teams against FCS schools. That's two more than a season ago when FBS teams won 105 of 112 games.

There were 20 such games this past weekend with The Citadel giving the FCS its third win of the season. The FBS won the other 19 games. This week, only 9 such games take place.

FBS schools are 85-3 (.966) for the season  Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS schools are 1,409-127 (.917).

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2018
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 18 straight over-all (FBS longest). Won 20 straight regular season games.
Last: 41-6 win at Syracuse on September 14.
Next: Hosts Charlotte on September 21.

UCF - Won 18 straight conference games including consecutive AAC titles (FBS longest). Won 25 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
Last: 45-27 home win over Stanford on September 14.
Next: Visits Pittsburgh on September 21.

ALABAMA - Won 27 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: 47-23 win at South Carolina on September 14.
Next: Hosts Southern Miss on September 21.

OKLAHOMA - Won 21 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last:: 48-14 win at UCLA on September 14.
Next: Hosts Texas Tech on September 28.

RUTGERS - Lost 13 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: 30-0 loss at Iowa on September 7.
Next: Hosts Boston College on September 21.

Akron - Lost 8 straight overall (FBS longest).
Last: 45-24 loss at Central Michigan.
Next: Hosts Troy on September 21.

CONNECTICUT - Lost 17 straight vs. FBS teams (FBS longest).
Last: 31-23 home loss to Illinois on September 7.
Next: Visits Indiana on September 21.

RICE - Lost 13 straight road games (tied FBS longest).
Last: 48-13 loss to Texas at NRG Stadium on September 14.
Next: Hosts Baylor on September 21.
(Note: San Jose State has a 13-game road losing streak.)