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Week 4 Picks - SEC Opens Play

September 20, 2020 by Dave Congrove

The SEC joins the party this week, boosting the college football slate to 35 games - if nothing gets in the way. Last week's 26-game schedule was reduced to 20 after 6 cancellations related to Covid.

This week's schedule has already been effected as the planned Memphis game at UTSA on Friday has now become a planned Middle Tennessee game at UTSA on the same date.

Covid could also have a profound effect on another game as Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is isolating after a positive test and will not be able to lead his team at Miami on Saturday.

But even with those stories grabbing a piece of the spotlight, a lot of attention will be focused on the 7 season-openers involving all 14 SEC teams, many of which are expected to be blowouts.

Alabama, currently the No. 1 team in my Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com, opens at Missouri as a 27.5-point favorite and a 19.35-point computer pick, while the defending national champion LSU Tigers are getting 19 points at home over Mississippi State and are a 27.71-point computer choice.

I am extremely curious to see how LSU fares without the 14 players that were drafted off last year's team, including 5 in the first round - most notably, Heisman Trophy winning QB Joe Burrow. Additionally, the Tigers' top returning wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase, opted out. Joining him were nickel back Kary Vincent, and a pair of defensive linemen - Tyler Shelvin and Neil Farrell.

Look for other another rout when Arkansas puts its 9-game overall losing streak (and 19-game conference losing streak) on the line at home against Georgia. The Hogs are a 23.5-point underdog while the computer puts the spread at 27.36.

Vanderbilt at Texas A&M won't be pretty, either. The Aggies are a 30-point Vegas choice and a 23.73-point computer pick.

Florida heads to Ole Miss as a 12.5-point favorite and a 17.17-point computer choice.

The oddsmakers treat South Carolina a lot better than the computer, listing the Gamecocks as a 3-point dog at home to Tennessee while the computer sees a 17.22-point advantage for the Vols.

The only SEC game with consensus expectations to be close is the matchup of Kentucky at Auburn. The lines for that game were favoring Auburn by 8.5 at the time this was being written, while the the computer has Kentucky favored by a scant 0.64 in an upset.

Two other projected outright upsets this week are FIU by 1.6 at Liberty (-6.5), and Syracuse by 0.41 at home over Georgia Tech (-7.5). I somehow doubt that anyone saw Georgia Tech as a road favorite in this game in the preseason.

FIU's game at Liberty will be the season opener for FIU and the Panthers are joined in that regard by FAU (hosting USF), Virginia Tech (hosting N.C. State), Virginia (hosting Duke), Baylor (hosting Kansas), TCU (hosting Iowa State), Houston (hosting North Texas), and East Carolina (hosting UCF).

Even after the conclusion of this week's games, Air Force, Rice and Temple will not have played a game. Rice isn't presently scheduled to begin its season until October 24 while Temple opens October 10 at Navy. Air Force is only playing Navy (10/3) and Army (11/7) this season.

See: Weekly Picks.

FCS vs. FBS

The number of FBS-FCS matchups had increased by 1. Memphis on Saturday agreed to play FCS member Stephen F. Austin on November 21. That addition came about after Memphis, for the second straight week, had to cancel a game due to Covid. The Tigers, who were supposed to have played Houston this past Friday night, have now also canceled this Saturday's contest at UTSA. The Roadrunners promptly filled the newly-open date with CUSA foe MTSU.

With the addition, 30 FBS teams will play a total of 34 games against FCS schools this season. Army has 3 such games on its schedule.

Only 3 such games are scheduled this week with Campbell at Appalachian State, Houston Baptist at Louisiana Tech, and Stephen F. Austin at SMU.

So far this season, the FBS schools are 15-0 in such matchups.

That makes the FBS teams 1,450-127 (.919) since we began tracking this in 2003.

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2018:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 31 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 23 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 24 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 13 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 49-0 at home vs. FCS member The Citadel on Saturday, September 19.
Next: Hosts Virginia on Saturday, October 3.

LSU - 16-game over-all winning streak (FBS longest).
Last: Won 42-25 over Clemson in the national championship game in New Orleans on January 13.
Next: Season opener at home vs. Mississippi State on September 26.

ARKANSAS - Lost 9 straight overall (FBS longest among teams playing this Fall).
Last: Lost 24-14 at home to Missouri on November 29, 2019.
Next: Season opener at home vs. Georgia on September 26.

RUTGERS - Lost 21 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest)
Last: Lost 27-6 at Penn State on November 30, 2019.
Next: Season opener at Michigan State on Saturday, October 24.

UTEP - Lost 15 straight to FBS schools, but won 2 straight over FCS schools.
Last: Won 17-13 at home vs. Abilene Christian on Saturday September 19.
Next: Visits Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday, September 26.

Streaks (Involving teams NOT playing this fall, but longer than those above)