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Pro Football Hall of Famer Tom Landry once said football is such an incredible game that at times it can be unbelievable.
Welcome to one of those times.
Just look at some of the historic implications at stake as the NFL closes its 104th regular-season schedule:
Twenty teams remain in Super Bowl contention, tied with 2006 for the most with one week remaining over the last 41 years, since a record 22 were still alive in 1982.
Five playoff berths remain unclaimed, the most entering the final week since there were seven in 2020.
Four division crowns are still undecided, the most entering a season finale since there were also four in 2014. For the 14th consecutive year, the NFL scheduled all 16 games in the final week as division clashes.
So please ensure your seat backs and tray tables are in their full and upright positions, and seatbelts are securely fastened. The NFL is preparing to land a fantastic regular season. Of this week’s 16 games, 14 involve one of those 20 teams still in contention. And 13 of 16 games have playoff implications.
And Super Bowl LVIII is only 40 days away.
Baltimore (13-3) leads the NFL this season in takeaways (29), sacks (57) and scoring defense (16.4 points allowed per game). Since the 1970 merger, no team has finished a season leading the league in all three categories. The Ravens host Pittsburgh (9-7) on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC). The Steelers’ easiest path to the playoffs is a win and help from other teams on Sunday.
Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt, who is tied for first in the NFL with 17 sacks, could establish an NFL record by leading the league in sacks for a third season. Watt, who led the league with 15 sacks in 2020 and 22.5 in 2021, is one of eight players who has led the NFL multiple times since sacks became an official individual statistic in 1982.
Baltimore also leads the NFL with a plus-12 turnover margin, while the Steelers (plus-11) rank second.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who turns 27 on Sunday, could become the youngest player to win a second NFL MVP award since Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Brown won his second NFL MVP at age 22 in 1958.
In last week’s win, Jackson became the second quarterback in NFL history with two career games of at least five touchdown passes and a 158.3 passer rating, joining Ben Roethlisberger. Jackson also had five touchdown passes and a 158.3 rating in Week 1 of the 2019 season. What’s more, Jackson has four career games with at least five touchdown passes, the third most by a player in his first six seasons in NFL history.
Only Patrick Mahomes (six games) and Pro Football Hall of Famer Dan Marino (five) have more.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson’s 32-yard completion last week to wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. had a completion probability of 13.3 percent, the most improbable completion of Jackson's career.
The number of NFL games this year decided by six-or-fewer points. Over a full season, only one other prior campaign has had more, 2022, when 122 games were separated by no more than six points.
Playoff seeding is important, but keep in mind that three of the last six Super Bowl teams, including the world champions in 2020 and 2021, have entered the postseason no better than a fourth seed. Seven Wild Card teams have won the Super Bowl.
In four consecutive seasons, an NFL team has rebounded to clinch a playoff berth after beginning with three or fewer wins over its first nine games. The Los Angeles Rams, who started this season 3-6, extended that streak last week, following the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021 Philadelphia Eagles and 2020 Washington Football Team. From 1990-2023, only nine teams have rebounded to reach the postseason after winning three-or-fewer of their first nine games.
Atlanta, Houston and New Orleans enter the season’s final week with an opportunity to complete a worst-to-first turnaround. Those clubs finished last or tied for last in their respective divisions last season. In 18 of the previous 20 seasons (2003-22), at least one team has won its division the year after finishing last or tied for last. Two division champions during that span, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, rebounded to win the Super Bowl after finishing in last place. Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars advanced to the AFC Divisional round after finishing last in the AFC South in 2021.
The Detroit Lions (NFC North) already have won their division after missing the playoffs in 2022. Atlanta, Indianapolis, Houston and New Orleans also have that opportunity this week. In 19 of the previous 20 years (2023-22), at least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs.
Three teams – Cleveland, Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams – have clinched playoff berths after missing the postseason in 2022. Atlanta, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Pittsburgh can join them this week. From 1990-2022 – a streak of 33 consecutive seasons – at least four teams have earned playoff berths after missing the postseason the year before.
Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has a career-high, NFL-leading and franchise-record 1,717 receiving yards this season, is the first player in NFL history to record 1,700 receiving yards in multiple seasons. Hill had 1,710 receiving yards last season. This week, look for Hill lined up against Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas. Since joining the Bills in an Oct. 31 trade, Douglas has four interceptions, tied for second in the NFL during that period, one interception-return touchdown, eight passes defensed, one sack and two fumble recoveries in eight games.
With a home win against Buffalo (10-6), Miami (11-5) can register a 12th victory for the first time since 1990 and secure its first AFC East division title since 2008 in the NFL’s final regular-season game on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Buffalo with a win would stamp an exclamation point on an impressive season-ending stretch and give the Bills a fourth consecutive AFC East championship. The last time the Bills captured four straight division titles was 1988-91.
Hill – who has 112 receptions this season and had 119 in 2022 and 111 in 2021 – is the third player ever to record 110 catches in three consecutive seasons, joining Antonio Brown (2013-15) and Wes Welker (2007-09). Hill has 710 receptions for 10,057 yards and 75 touchdowns since entering the NFL in 2016, is the second player in NFL history to reach 700 receptions, 10,000 receiving yards and 75 touchdown receptions in his first eight seasons, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison.
In last week’s win, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen rushed for two touchdowns. Allen has 15 rushing touchdowns this season, tied with Jalen Hurts (15 in 2023) for the most by a quarterback in a season in NFL history. Allen is the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games, joining Justin Fields (six consecutive games in 2022), Joshua Dobbs (five in 2023), Kyler Murray (five in 2020) and Cam Newton (five games in 2021). And, Allen has 12 games with a rushing touchdown this season, the most such games by a quarterback in a season in NFL history.
Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has 100 receptions this season and became the third player ever with at least 100 in four-or-more consecutive seasons, joining Antonio Brown (six consecutive seasons from 2013-18) and Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (four consecutive seasons from 1999-2002). Las Vegas’ Davante Adams can join this group in Week 18 with two receptions.
Houston (9-7) and Indianapolis (9-7) will take the first step toward breaking the logjam atop the AFC South when they meet on Saturday (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC). The winner will also capture the division if Jacksonville (9-7) loses at Tennessee (5-11) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). The team that loses on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium is eliminated from playoff contention. Regardless, the Jaguars can lock up a second straight South division title with a win over the Titans.
Saturday’s matchup spotlights two of the league’s most remarkable turnaround stories this season. Houston rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans with a victory would improve his team’s record by seven wins compared to 2022, when the Texans finished 3-13-1. Colts rookie head coach Shane Steichen with a victory would improve his club’s record by six wins compared to last year, when Indianapolis was 4-12-1. Last week, Steichen became the seventh rookie head coach since 2019 to improve his team’s record by five-or-more wins, joining Ryans (plus-six in 2023), Brian Daboll (Plus-Five In 2022), Kevin O’Connell (plus-five in 2022), Nick Sirianni (plus-five in 2021), Kevin Stefanski (plus-five in 2020) and Matt LaFleur (plus-seven in 2019).
Also in the division, Jacksonville linebacker Josh Allen recorded three sacks in last week’s win. Allen – who had three sacks in Weeks 1, 4 and 17 and 2.5 sacks in Week 12 – is the second player since 1982, when the individual sack became an official statistic, with at least 2.5 sacks in four games within a season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor (four games in 1986). This season, Allen ranks third in NFL with a Jaguars franchise-record and career-best 16.5 sacks.
Dallas kicker Brandon Aubrey, officially a first-year NFL player and not a rookie after beginning his pro career in the USFL, has connected on each of his first 35 career field-goal attempts, including nine from 50-or-more yards. Mike Vanderjagt holds the NFL record for most field-goal attempts without a miss in a season, 37 in 2003. Gary Anderson ranks second on that all-time list with 35 in 1998. Aubrey can break that record and Dallas (11-5) can capture the NFC East division title with a win at Washington (4-12) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
In last week’s win, Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb posted the fifth 200-yard receiving game in the NFL this year, the most in a season since there eight in 2014. Lamb, who had 13 receptions for 227 yards and one touchdown last week, has 1,651 receiving yards and an NFL-leading 122 receptions this season to surpass Pro Football Hall of Famer Michael Irvin (1,603 receiving yards in 1995 and 111 receptions) for the Cowboys’ single-season franchise records in each category.
Lamb also has four games with at least 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards this season (Weeks 8-10 and 17), tied with Pro Football Hall of Famers Tim Brown (1997), Calvin Johnson (2012) and Jerry Rice (1995) as well as Antonio Brown (2017) and Tyreek Hill (2022) for the most such games in a season in NFL history. And, Lamb joined Michael Thomas (six games in 2019) as the only players with six games of 11-or-more receptions in a season in NFL history.
Detroit’s Sam LaPorta has 81 receptions, tied with Keith Jackson (81 in 1988) for the most by a rookie tight end in NFL history. Plus, LaPorta has 860 receiving yards, and last week surpassed Charle Young (854 in 1973) for the fifth most by a rookie tight end in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Mike Ditka (1,076 in 1961), Kyle Pitts (1,026 in 2021), Jeremy Shockey (894 in 2002) and Keith Jackson (869 in 1988) have more. LaPorta and Detroit (11-5) host Minnesota (7-9) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
NFL scouts work every day of the year, covering other pro leagues, college practices and games through the National Championship. They also serve as valuable resources through college all-star games, spring campus pro days, scouting combines and the NFL Draft. And, with respect to NFL players drafted in the fifth round, scout fingerprints are all over some of the success NFL clubs have enjoyed this season.
Specifically, when the Los Angeles Rams (9-7) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4) conclude the regular season on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX), several fifth-round playmakers will be on the field.
In fact, two of the most significant reasons the Rams are returning to the playoffs are their fifth-round selections in each of the last two drafts, wide receiver Puka Nacua (2023) and running back Kyren Williams (2022). Nacua has 101 catches, tied with Anquan Boldin (101 in 2003) for the second-most receptions by a rookie in history. Only Jaylen Waddle (104 in 2021) has more. And, Nacua has 1,445 receiving yards, surpassing Justin Jefferson (1,400 in 2020) for the third most by a rookie all-time. Only Bill Groman (1,473 in 1960) and Ja'Marr Chase (1,455 in 2021) have more. Williams has 1,144 rushing yards, second in the NFL this season behind the 49ers’ Christian McCaffreY (1,459). Williams is also tied for third in the league with 15 scrimmage touchdowns.
Three other fifth-round selections, 49ers tight end George Kittle (2017), linebacker Dre Greenlaw (2019) and tackle COLTON McKivitz (2020), have helped San Francisco to the NFC’s No. 1 seed and lone first-round bye in 2023. Another fifth-round choice, All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga (2021), helped the Niners to the Super Bowl last year. And fifth-round defensive back Deommodore Lenoir (2021) has stepped up to fill the void left by Hufanga’s season-ending injury this year.
Across the NFL, notable fifth-round selections include running backs Tyler Allgeier, Jerome Ford and Aaron Jones, wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill Aand Dontayvion Wicks, linebackers Damone Clark, E.J. Speed and Andrew Van Ginkel and cornerbacks Daron Bland and Riq Woolen.
The Rams’ Sean McVay has led his team to a fifth playoff appearance, surpassing Pro Football Hall of Famer JOHN MADDEN (four) for the most postseason berths ever by an NFL head coach prior to his 38th birthday.
This week, San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel (4,101 receiving yards, 996 rushing yards) can join Pro Football Hall of Famer Charley Taylor as the only players ever to reach 4,000 receiving yards and 1,000 rushing yards within their first five seasons.
Niners running back Christian McCaffrey, who will rest this week with a league-leading 1,459 rushing yards, could become the first player in 28 years and only the fourth since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in rushing after every week of a full season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith (1995), Walter Payton (1977) and O.J. Simpson (1973 and 1975).
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy, who leads the NFL with a 113.0 passer rating, could become the youngest player to finish first in that category over a full season since Pro Football Hall of Famer Dan Marino (108.9) led the league in 1984.
Since Week 11, the Chicago Bears (7-9) have held opponents to a 61.5 passer rating, lowest in the NFL during that time. Also during that span, the Green Bay Packers (8-8) have a 110.5 passer rating, third in the league.
Chicago travels to Lambeau Field on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) with an NFL-best 22 interceptions this season. Should the Bears finish the season first in that category, the Bears will establish an NFL record by leading the NFL in interceptions for an 11th season (also 1935-36, 1941-42, 1946, 1963, 1985, 1990, 2012 and 2018). They currently share the mark (10 seasons) with the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers.
Denver cornerback Pat Surtain aligned across from Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston on 32 of 34 routes in Week 17, allowing just two receptions for 20 yards on four targets. When Denver (8-8) visits Las Vegas (7-9) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX), in the last NFL game at Allegiant Stadium prior to Super Bowl LVIII, Surtain figures to draw Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams. Last week, Adams had 13 receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns. He now has eight career games with at least 10 receptions, 125 receiving yards and two touchdown catches, surpassing Antonio Brown (seven) for the most such games in NFL history. What’s more, Adams has 17 games with at least 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns, tied with Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Owens (17) for the fifth-most such games in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famers Jerry Rice (27), Randy Moss (26), Marvin Harrison (22) and Don Hutson (18) have more.
The Cleveland Browns (11-5) can reach their highest win total in 37 years and match their single-season franchise record with a 12th win when they visit Cincinnati (8-8) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Cleveland’s most wins in an NFL regular season was 12 in 1986, when the Browns had one starting quarterback, Bernie Kosar. This year, the Browns have deftly won 11 games with four starting quarterbacks, Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker and Deshaun Watson.
Since the 1970 merger, the 2023 Browns are the just the eighth team to earn a postseason berth after starting four-or-more quarterbacks, joining the 2015 Houston Texans, 2013 Green Bay Packers, 2003 Denver Broncos, 1988 Cleveland Browns and the 1987, 1986 and 1984 Chicago Bears.
Cleveland in 2023 also is only the third team over the last 25 seasons (1999-2023) to have four starting quarterbacks win at least one game, joining the 2015 Texans and 2007 Panthers.
Cleveland quarterback Joe Flacco passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception for a 121.2 rating in the Browns' win last week. Flacco became the first player in NFL history to record at least 250 passing yards and two touchdown passes in each of his first five games with a team.
Flacco also became the second player ever to record at least 300 passing yards in four of his first five games with a team, joining Brian Hoyer (four of his first five games with Chicago in 2016).
Joseph Santoliquito can be followed on twitter @JSantoliquito.
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