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by Joseph Santoliquito, MaxwellFootballClub.org
Models, simulations and probabilities.
With apologies to Bing Crosby, they’re nothing more than ringing sleigh bells and new-bird whistles on the NFL’s playoff picture. Entering Week 16, only one thing matters on the snow-glistened lane to the postseason: Winning.
“You’ve earned the right to play in these important games late in the season,” said CBS analyst and two-time Pro Bowler Trent Green, “and everyone you win, the next one becomes that much more important.”
The first one was so important that it might as well have been a playoff contest. The first game on the NFL’s Week 16 slate saw the LA Rams (8-7) prevail 30-22 at home down over the New Orleans Saints (7-8) on Thursday Night.
The last game on the Week 16 slate, the finale of a Christmas Day tripleheader, features the teams with the NFL’s best records, the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) at the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC).
In between, get ready for a pair of Saturday games and 10 more on Christmas Eve. With three weeks remaining, 26 teams are still in contention and 22 of those clubs are either in playoff position or within one game of joining that group.
Wins, not reputations or analytics, will keep those teams in contention. And in the NFL, a win is a win. No one cares about votes in a poll. Impressive wins, ugly wins and exciting, improbable wins all count equally in the fight for Super Bowl LVIII.
The number of scrimmage touchdowns scored by Lions rookies this season, most in the NFL. The Lions are the first team to have multiple rookies – tight end Sam LaPorta (nine) and running back Jahmyr Gibbs (eight) – score eight-or-more touchdowns since Reggie Bush and Marques Colston did it with the 2006 Saints. Detroit general manager Brad Holmes acquired the selections he used to draft Gibbs and LaPorta, No. 12 and 34 overall, respectively, in a draft-day trade. Since the 1970 merger, the 2016 Cowboys and 1983 Rams are tied for the most single-season touchdowns scored by rookies, 22.
Detroit (10-4) heads to Minnesota (7-7) for a Sunday divisional showdown (1 p.m. ET, FOX). The teams will meet twice over the season’s final three weeks, including the Week 18 finale at Ford Field.
The Lions with a win can clinch their first division title since 1993. Since the 1970 merger, only the Browns’ current streak of 30 seasons without a division championship (1990-95, 1999-2022) is longer than Detroit (29).
LaPorta is the first rookie tight end ever to reach 70 receptions, 700 receiving yards and seven touchdown catches. His nine touchdown receptions this season are tied with Junior Miller (nine in 1980) for the third most ever by a rookie tight end. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Mike Ditka (12 in 1961) and Rob Gronkowski (10 in 2010) have more. LaPorta’s 71 receptions represent the third most by a rookie tight end in NFL history, behind Keith Jackson (81 in 1988 with Philadelphia) and Jeremy Shockey (74 in 2002 with the New York Giants).
Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is the third player in NFL history to reach 90 receptions and 900 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, joining Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas. St. Brown has 290 career receptions and can join Justin Jefferson (324), Thomas (321) and Christian McCaffrey (303) as the only players ever with 300 in their first three seasons.
Minnesota linebacker Danielle Hunter leads the NFL with 21 tackles for loss and ranks second with a career-high 15.5 sacks.
Peacock will stream its first exclusive NFL game when the Buffalo Bills (8-6) meet the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) at SoFi Stadium (8 p.m. ET, Peacock) in the nightcap of the league’s Saturday doubleheader.
In last week’s win, Bills quarterback Josh Allen registered his 10th game this season with both a touchdown pass and a rushing touchdown, surpassing Kyler Murray (nine in 2020) for the most such single-season games in NFL history.
Also last week, Buffalo running back James Cook posted career highs in both rushing yards (179) and scrimmage yards (221), the most scrimmage yards by a Bills player since Fred Jackson had 227 on Jan. 3, 2010.
When the Los Angeles Rams (7-7) host the New Orleans Saints (7-7) on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), look for Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua lined up across from Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo. Nacua, selected 177th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, has the most receiving yards (1,163) by a rookie not drafted in the first 100 selections in the common-draft era (since 1967). Nacua surpassed Marques Colston, the 252nd overall choice in the 2006 draft, who had 1,038 receiving yards as a rookie for the Saints. Adebo, meanwhile, has career bests in interceptions (four), passes defensed (15), forced fumbles (two) and fumble recoveries (two). His 15 passes defensed are tied for fifth in the league.
The Rams have won four of their last five games. In that stretch, since Week 11, they rank third in the NFL with 395.6 offensive yards per game and fourth with 29.8 points per game.
In last week’s win, Rams running back Kyren Williams posted 152 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. His 114.5 scrimmage yards per game ranks third in the NFL this season behind Christian McCaffrey (128.6) and Tyreek Hill (119.8).
New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr completed 23 of 28 attempts (82.1 percent) for 218 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions for a 134.8 rating in the Saints' victory last week. Carr has 3,098 passing yards in 2023 and became the third player in NFL history with 3,000 in each of his first 10 career seasons, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson.
The Dolphins lead the NFL with 274.4 passing yards per game. The Cowboys are allowing 176.9 passing yards per game, fourth fewest in the league. Those units will be on the same field when Dallas (10-4) travels to Miami (10-4) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert has 18 rushing touchdowns this season, tied with LeGarrette Blount (18 in 2016) for the third most by an undrafted player in a season in the common-draft era (since 1967). Only Priest Holmes (27 rushing touchdowns in 2003 and 21 in 2002) has more. Mostert, who has 18 rushing touchdowns and two touchdown receptions in 2023, also is the third undrafted player since 1967 to record at least 20 touchdowns in a season, joining Austin Ekeler (20 in 2021) and Priest Holmes (27 in 2003 and 24 in 2002).
In last week’s win, Miami wide receiver Jaylen Waddle had eight receptions for 142 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown catch. Miami’s seven scrimmage touchdowns of 60-or-more yards are tied with four other teams for second most by any club since the 1970 merger. In that span, only the 1998 San Francisco 49ers (eight) have more.
Dallas is 5-1 and averaging a league-best 35.2 points per game since Week 10. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has 15 touchdown passes and one interception over his last 209 attempts.
Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice has at least seven receptions in each of his last four games. Only four rookies over the last 30 seasons – Amon-Ra St. Brown (six games in 2021), Odell Beckham Jr. (six games in 2014), Jaylen Waddle (four games in 2021) and Rice – have had streaks of at least four games with seven-or-more receptions.
Rice and the Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) host the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) in the first of three Christmas Day games (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has 217 touchdown passes in 94 career games, tied with Pro Football Hall of Famer Dan Marino (217) for the most touchdown passes by a player in his first 100 career games in NFL history. Last week, when the Raiders scored a franchise-record 63 points, Las Vegas became the first team since the Los Angeles Rams on Oct. 22, 1950, to have eight players score touchdowns.
Bengals quarterback Jake Browning, who has 1,180 passing yards and a 76.0 completion percentage as a starter, is the first player since at least 1950 to pass for more than 1,000 yards and complete at least 75 percent of his passes in his first four career starts. Cincinnati (8-6) makes the short trek to Pittsburgh (7-7) in the first game of the NFL’s Saturday doubleheader (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Bengals have won three straight games, two in overtime. Bengals running back Joe Mixon has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games.
Pittsburgh linebacker T.J. Watt, who leads the league with 16 sacks in 2023, has 21 career games with at least two sacks, tied with his brother J.J. Watt for the fifth-most games by a player in his first seven NFL seasons since 1982, when the individual sack became an official statistic. Only Pro Football Hall of Famers Reggie White (30 games) and Richard Dent (23) as well Simeon Rice (23) and Jared Allen (22) have more.
The Texans’ DeMeco Ryans (49ers defensive coordinator) and the Colts’ Shane Steichen (Eagles offensive coordinator) coached against each other in the NFC Championship Game last year. This year, they could become the first pair of rookie head coaches from the same division to lead their teams to the playoffs since Jim Haslett and Mike Martz in 2000. Entering Week 16, they’ve led their teams to a three-way tie with Jacksonville (8-6) atop the AFC South.
Indianapolis (8-6) has a takeaway in 19 consecutive games, the NFL’s longest active streak. The Colts, who look to extend that stretch at Atlanta (6-8) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX), are the only team in the league with a takeaway in every game this season. The Colts also have 46 sacks, tied for third in the NFL.
Both Houston (8-6) and Cleveland (9-5), who meet in a key AFC showdown at NRG Stadium on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), won thrillers last week. The Texans’ Ka’Imi Fairbairn converted a 54-yard field goal to lift Houston with no time remaining in overtime. The Browns’ Dustin Hopkins hit a game-winning 34-yard field goal with 32 seconds left in regulation. Houston erased a 13-point deficit in the win while Cleveland came back from 10 down.
Browns tight end David Njoku had 104 yards and a touchdown on a career-best 10 receptions in last week’s victory. He has three touchdown receptions over his last two games.
Under Pete Carroll (since 2010), the Seahawks now have nine wins against opponents that entered with records of seven-or-more games above .500, including their storybook victory in Week 15. Quarterback Drew Lock engineered a 10-play, 92-yard drive in the final two minutes, hitting rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a 29-yard touchdown with 28 seconds remaining to keep Seattle (7-7) firmly in contention for the seventh and final NFC playoff spot.
The Seahawks, who travel to Tennessee (5-9) for an interconference matchup Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), got their second game-winning, fourth-quarter touchdown reception of the season from Smith-Njigba, the only rookie since 1960 with two game-winning touchdown receptions in the final minute of the fourth quarter (also Week 8 with 38 seconds left). On that final drive last week, Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf had three catches for 58 yards. Seahawks safety Julian Love had two fourth-quarter interceptions, including a spectacular play to seal the win with six seconds on the clock.
Las Vegas defensive tackle John Jenkins reached a top speed of 14.95 miles per hour on his 44-yard fumble-return touchdown, the fourth-fastest speed by a 320-pound ball carrier in the NGS era (since 2016).
Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield passed for 381 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions for a 158.3 rating, the highest attainable mark, in last week’s win. Mayfield is the third player with at least 375 passing yards, four touchdown passes and a 158.3 rating in a road game in NFL history, joining Philadelphia’s Nick Foles (Nov. 3, 2013, at Oakland) and the Jets’ Ken O'brien (Nov. 2, 1986, at Seattle). Tampa Bay (7-7) hosts Jacksonville (8-6) in a battle of teams with a share of first place in their divisions on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS).
For only the second time since the 1970 merger, two teams with a share of the league’s best record will meet in Week 16 or later when Baltimore visits San Francisco on Christmas night. The only other game in that period involving teams that shared the league’s best record this late in a season was Jan. 2, 1994, when Dallas defeated the New York Giants en route to victory in Super Bowl XXVIII.
Last week, the Ravens clinched their fifth playoff berth in six seasons and need a Christmas win to continue the march toward their first AFC North division title since 2019. Baltimore also owns the NFL’s best winning percentage (.857, 6-1) in road games.
In last week’s win, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson recorded 97 yards on 12 carries. His 54 career games of 50-or-more rushing yards are tied with Michael Vick (54) for the most by a quarterback in NFL history. Jackson also has 13 career victories against teams at least three games above .500, more than any starting quarterback since 2018, when he entered the league.
Also last week, Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike became only the third player since 1982, when the individual sack became an official statistic, to record at least half a sack in 11 consecutive games during a season, joining Trey Hendrickson (11 straight games in 2021) and Chris Jones (11 straight games in 2018)
Baltimore (163.8) leads the NFL in rushing yards per game while San Francisco’s defense (89.4) has allowed the third-fewest ground yards per contest in 2023.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy leads the NFL in both touchdown passes (29) and passer rating (119.0), and ranks second with 3,795 passing yards. Purdy has six games with a passer rating of 130-or-higher this season, tied for the most such games in a season in NFL history.
San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey has 6,018 rushing yards and 4,265 receiving yards since entering the NFL in 2017. He’s the third player ever with 6,000 rushing yards and 4,000 receiving yards in his first seven seasons, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig. McCaffrey also has 499 receptions in 89 NFL games and can surpass Faulk (112 games) as the fastest running back to reach 500 career catches all-time. Baltimore leads the all-time series, 4-2, winning four of the last five that including Baltimore’s 20-17 victory over San Francisco, at Baltimore, on Dec. 1, 2019.
Joseph Santoliquito can be followed on twitter @JSantoliquito.
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