Week 13 Preview: Penn State-Ohio State, Plus a Conference-by-Conference Look at Every Divisional Race

November 19, 2019 by Dave Congrove

All eyes are on Columbus, Ohio this week as 9th-ranked Penn State invades "The Horseshoe" to battle 2nd-ranked Ohio State in a de facto championship game for the Big Ten east division title.

The Buckeyes opened as a huge 18-point favorite to capture their third straight division crown and stay on-course for their first appearance in the Final Four since 2016. According to the Weekly Picks based on the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com, Ohio State has a slightly larger advantage to win this game at 19.08 points. The Nittany Lions would like to overcome those odds and become only the 11th different team to crash the national championship playoff party.

Here are the playoff records of the ten teams that have been fortunate enough to participate, with number of titles won in parenthesis:

Alabama, 6-3 (2)
Clemson, 5-2 (2)
Florida State, 0-1
Georgia, 1-1
Michigan State, 0-1
Notre Dame, 0-1
Ohio State, 2-1 (1)
Oklahoma, 0-3
Oregon, 1-1
Washington, 0-1

Division Championship Races

Heading in to this week's games, only Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia, Miami (Ohio) and Oregon have clinched a division title in their respective conference. Here's a look at how each division race is shaping up.

American East: Cincinnati has clinched its first division title since the conference began staging a playoff in 2015.

American West: Memphis, Navy and SMU are all 5-1.
Navy is a 3-point Vegas pick, but a 3.98-point computer underdog to SMU in Annapolis.
Memphis is a 14.5-point Vegas choice and an 8.36-point computer favorite at USF this week.

ACC Atlantic: Clemson has clinched its 5th straight division title.

ACC Coastal: Virginia (5-2), Pittsburgh (4-2) and Virginia Tech (4-2) are the division front-runners. Pittsburgh visits Blacksburg this week as a 4-point Vegas dog and a 6.06-point computer underdog, but the Panthers have won 3 of the last 5 in the series and are 7-3 versus Virginia Tech since 2001. Meanwhile, Virginia (-17.5 Vegas, -23.53 computer) hosts Liberty.

Big Ten East: In addition to the Penn State-Ohio State game, Wisconsin (-22.5 Vegas, -19.78 computer) hosts Purdue.

Big Ten West: Minnesota (9-1, 6-1) and Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2) meet in Minneapolis next week in what will be a de facto division championship game unless two things happen this week - Minnesota wins at Northwestern, and Wisconsin loses at home to Purdue. The Gophers (-13, -8.27 computer) are a hefty favorite over the Wildcats and the Badgers (-22.5 Vegas, -19.78 computer) are even larger favorites over the Boilermakers.

CUSA East: Marshall and FAU are tied for the lead with records of 7-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference. The Herd own the tie-breaker with their 36-31 win at the Owls on October 18. Marshall is a 7-point Vegas favorite and a 9-point computer pick to win at Charlotte this week. FAU is a 19-point Vegas favorite and a 16.20-point computer pick to defeat FIU.

Marshall clinches with a win this week. FAU can clinch with wins in its last two games if Marshall loses to either Charlotte this week or FIU on November 30.

CUSA West: Louisiana Tech (8-2, 5-1), Southern Miss (7-3, 5-1) are tied for the lead. However, the Bulldogs own the tie-breaker with their 45-30 win over the Eagles on October 19. UAB (7-3, 4-2) trails by a game, but has also already been trounced by USM 37-2 on November 9.

The Blazers host Louisiana Tech this week as a 5-point Vegas favorite but a 4.26-point computer underdog. UAB's only hope to claim a second straight division title is to win both of its remaining games and have Southern Miss lose one to create a three-way tie at 6-2.

Louisiana Tech was rolling until a 31-10 loss at Marshall last Friday night which was precipitated by the suspensions of junior wide receiver Adrian Hardy, senior outside linebacker James Jackson and quarterback J’Mar Smith. Hardy and Smith are also suspended for this week's game, and freshman QB Aaron Allen suffered a hand injury in last week's loss. Add to that the fact that UAB has won 17 straight home games and the Vegas oddsmakers are looking smarter than the computer for this one.

Meanwhile, Southern Miss is a 4.5-point Vegas pick at home over Western Kentucky. The computer favors the Golden Eagles by 8.82 points.

MAC East: Miami has clinched its first division title since 2010.

MAC West: Central Michigan and Western Michigan are tied for the lead at 7-4 overall and 5-2 in the conference. The Broncos own the tie-breaker by virtue of having won the heads-up battle 31-15 on September 28. Western Michigan was the preseason pick to win the division, while Central Michigan was projected to go 1-11 overall and 0-8 in the MAC. The Chippewas were a unanimous pick by all of the major preseason magazines to finish last, or tied for last.

Both Central and Western are idle this week. Western can clinch with a win at Northern Illinois next Tuesday (11/26). Central will win the division if Western Michigan loses to the Huskies and the Chips win at home over Toledo next Friday (11/29).

MWC Mountain: Boise State (9-1, 6-0) leads Utah State (6-4, 5-1) and Air Force (8-2, 5-1) by a game. BSU's lead over the Falcons is essentially two games by virtue of a 30-19 win on September 20. The Broncos visit Utah State this week as a 7.5-point Vegas favorite and a 4.10-point computer pick. A win this week gives Boise State its third straight division title.

MWC West:: Hawaii (7-4, 4-3) hosts San Diego State (8-2, 5-2) in a de facto division championship game this week. The computer's Mountain West Season Preview had this to say: "The surprise in the computer's projections for 2019 is the expected success for Hawaii.... If everything plays out as predicted, San Diego State's visit in the final regular season conference game on November 23 would be for the West division title."

PAC-12 North: Oregon has clinched the division for the first time since 2014 when the Ducks also made the inaugural College Football Playoff Final Four and walloped Florida State 59-20 before bowing to 42-20 to Ohio State in the championship game.

PAC-12 South: Utah (9-1, 6-1) leads USC (7-4, 6-2). USC won the head-to-head battle 30-23 on September 20. The Trojans can win the division if they defeat UCLA this week as expected and the Utes lose to either Arizona (away) this week or Colorado (home) next week.

SEC East: Georgia has clinched its third consecutive division title.

SEC West:: LSU (10-0, 6-0) has a 47-41 win over its closest chaser in the division, Alabama (9-1, 6-1). The Tigers host Arkansas this week as a 44-point Vegas favorite and a 46.39-point computer pick. They end the season with a home game against Texas A&M (7-3, 4-2). Alabama hosts FCS member Western Carolina this week which will be an important tune-up for a team that must finish the season without star QB Tua Tagovailoa and visits Auburn next week. A Georgia-LSU matchup should be on the horizon for the SEC Championship in Atlanta on December 7.

Sun Belt East: Appalachian State (9-1, 5-1) leads Georgia Southern (6-4, 4-2) by a game and Troy (5-5, 3-3) by 2 games. The Mountaineers lost to the Eagles and face the Trojans in the season finale. This week, they are a hefty 28.5-point Vegas home favorite over Texas State and a 30.77-point computer pick. Georgia Southern is a 1-point Vegas underdog at Arkansas State, but a 2.77-point computer favorite. Troy is a 13.5-point Vegas dog and a 10.03-point computer underdog at Louisiana.

Sun Belt West: Louisiana (8-2, 5-1) leads Arkansas State (6-4, 4-2). As noted above, the Ragin' Cajuns are a substantial favorite to defeat Troy this week. Also as noted above, the Red Wolves are a Vegas favorite but a computer underdog at home against Georgia Southern.

By the time the dust settles, we should be looking at a repeat of last year's conference championship game with Louisiana once again having to travel to Appalachian State.

FBS vs. FCS

114 games this year pit FBS teams against FCS schools. That's two more than a season ago when FBS teams won 105 of 112 games.

Six FBS teams face a FCS school this week and five of them are in the SEC - Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. The other is North Carolina.

Those games finish out the FBS-FCS matchups for 2019.

FBS teams are 105-3 (.972) for the season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS schools are 1,429-127 (.918).

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

FCS victories over FBS teams in 2018
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 26 straight over-all (FBS longest). Won 28 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 21 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 22 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 11 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 52-3 at home over Wake Forest on November 16.
Next: Visits South Carolina on November 30.

RUTGERS - Lost 19 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 56-21 at home to Ohio State on November 16.
Next: Hosts Michigan State on November 23.

AKRON - Lost 15 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 7 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 42-14 at home to Eastern Michigan on November 12.
Next: Visits Miami (O.) on November 20.

NEW MEXICO STATE - Lost 15 straight vs FBS teams (FBS longest).
Last: Defeated FCS member Incarnate Word 41-28.
Next: Hosts UTEP on November 23.

RICE - Snapped a 15-game road losing streak which had been the FBS longest.
Last: Won 31-28 at MTSU on November 16.
Next: The Owls will look to halt a 6-game home losing streak when they host North Texas on November 23.

SOUTH ALABAMA- Lost 14 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 37-27 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette.
Next: Visits Georgia State on November 23.