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Sadly, there are just 3 weeks left in the 2023 FBS college football regular season. So far, very little has been decided.
Multiple teams still have the possibility of being invited to participate in the Final Four tournament which is marketed as the College Football Playoff and is designed to make us feel comfortable that we will crown a definitive national champion "on the field".
The top teams in contention have to be taken from the playoff committee's top four teams. The initial rankings were released last Tuesday, and the week 2 polling of its 13-member committee will be released tomorrow (Tuesday, November 7) at 7 p.m. eastern time on ESPN.
Before we look forward to this week's action, let's take a look back at a weekend that was challenging for the top contenders.
Oklahoma State couldn't be any happier than to have ended rival Oklahoma's shot at the playoffs. The Sooners' back-to-back losses, first to Kansas and then to the Cowboys, came the weekend before the rankings, and the weekend immediately after they saw that the committee still held them of value by penciling them in at No. 9.
Ollie Gordon II ran for 138 yards and 2 TD's. He has moved up to 7th on the Heisman Odds at FanDuel.com. The Oklahoma State running has 6 straight games of at least 121 yards, including back-to-back games of 282 and 271 against West Virginia and Cincinnati. He leads the nation with 1,225 yards and an average of 136.11 per game.
Oklahoma wasn't the only team to buckle this past weekend, though all of the other top teams survived.
The committee's top team, Ohio State, went to Rutgers and trailed at the half. The Buckeyes didn't pull away from the Scarlet Knights until a 93-yard interception return saved them from falling behind by as much as 16-7 and, instead, became a 14-9 lead. Ohio State scored again after a Rutgers punt to make it 21-9, but the home team answered to make it 21-16 with 14:07 to go in the game. The Ohio State defense took over from there, and the offense added two short TD passes of 4 and 2 yards from Kyle McCord to Heisman candidate Marvin Harrison, Jr, and the final score read 35-16. Harrison was limited to just 4 caches for 25 yards
Kyle McCord with a 4-yard TD pass to Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State up 28-16 pic.twitter.com/2NC2UnVYrT
— The Buckeye Nut (@TheBuckeyeNut) November 4, 2023
Georgia on Saturday got 254 yards passing and 2 TD's from Heisman candidate Carson Beck, but the No. 2 team needed two late interceptions to put away Missouri 30-21. The game was played "between the hedges" in Athens where the 'Dawgs have won 23 straight. Over-all, the defending champs have won 26 in-a-row and have been voted No. 1 in every traditional poll this year - the AP, the Coaches and the FWAA Super 16.
The committee's No. 4 team, Florida State, kept racking up yards but couldn't get the points needed to put Pitt away early. After taking a slim 10-7 halftime lead, the 'Noles went on a 17-0 second half surge for the 24-7 victory as Heisman candidate QB Jordan Travis was without his top two targets, Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman and still threw for a season high 360 yards (topped last week's 359) and 2 TD's. But the 24 point total ended a string of 14 games in which they scored at least 31 points, but gave the 'Noles a 15th straight victory.
The No.3 team in the committee rankings is a Michigan squad that has been No. 1 all year in the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. The Wolverines have won 27 straight games that weren't a part of the final four playoffs. Unfortunately for Jim Harbaugh, he still hasn't found a way to win one of those as he has seen his team eliminated in the semifinals the last two seasons.
This past weekend, Michigan was the only top 4 team to not encounter any trouble. The Wolverines jumped to a 17-0 first quarter lead and rolled to a 41-13 win over Purdue in the "Big House". Heisman candidate QB J.J. McCarthy didn't have a TD pass for the first time this year, but he did throw for 335 yards. Michigan has performed extremely well on the field, regardless of the off-field scrutiny that began with Cheeseburger-gate in the preseason and has since moved to Spy-gate. The former motivated the school to have Harbaugh sit out for the first three games of this season. The latter has led to fellow Big Ten coaches calling for Harbaugh, and the school, to be punished further. Indeed, head coaches from around the country have endorsed that notion.
No. 5 Washington secured a 52-42 win at USC, but that victory loses some luster since it was the third in four games for the Trojans. Michael Penix, Jr., had his lowest passing yardage total of the season (256) and threw his 7th interception (5 in the last 4 games) while his 2 TD passes raised his total to 26. The Huskies' QB has the best Heisman odds while USC's Caleb Williams has slipped into a tie for 10th. Williams threw for 312 yards, 3 TD's and 0 picks to run his totals to 28 TD's and 4 INT's on the season.
No. 6 Oregon joined Michigan as an exception to the rule and romped to a 63-19 win over Cal. Heisman candidate QB Bo Nix was hardly needed for the Ducks, but he still threw for 386 and 4 TD's with 1 INT. Nix has the second-best Heisman odds.
No. 7 Texas may have at ultimately lost at home to Kansas State after blowing a big lead. We'll never know because Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman decided to roll the dice and go for the touchdown on 4th-and-goal from the 4 when he only needed a field goal to head to a second overtime. In overtime, the best move is to take advantage of the OTHER team screwing up. Klieman volunteered to to do just that. Happy Birthday, Texas. Your gift was a 33-30 escape in one overtime.
No. 8 Alabama shut down LSU after falling behind 28-21 on the first drive of the third quarter. LSU QB Jayden Daniels was forced out of the game and into concussion protocols early in the 4th, and the Tide pulled away for a 42-28 win in Tuscaloosa.
No. 10 Ole Miss kept battling as Texas A&M kept coming back. The Aggies even rallied to take their first lead at 35-31 with 4;34 to play in Oxford. Nine plays, 75 yards and 2:54 later, the Rebels were back in front. But it wasn't over as Texas A&M drove to the Ole Miss 29 and in position to kick an overtime-forcing, 47-yard field goal. One big finger from Deantre Prince Bond grazed the ball and the kick failed to give the Fighting Kiffins a 38-35 win.
No. 11 Penn State methodically pushed aside Maryland with a 51-15 win in College Park and hosts Michigan on Saturday to make a statement after failing to make one against Ohio State.
No. 13 Louisville has had two impressive weeks in tossing aside other challengers for 2nd place in the ACC. First, the Cardinals blanked Duke 23-0, and then they shut down a hot Virginia Tech team, 34-3. Could 8-1 Louisville make a late charge out of nowhere?
Those are your 11 teams in serious contention for the Final Four. You have the five undefeated majors - Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington - and six schools with one loss that have a shot - Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State and Louisville.
That might even be the order of the top 11 come Tuesday night.
(THURSDAY)
Virginia at Louisville: This shouldn't even be close, but the ones you don't expect to lose can bite you in the back.
Line: (-20.5)
Computer: (-20.71)
(SATURDAY)
Michigan State at Ohio State - Maybe the predicted routs are the games to watch more closely.
Line: Ohio State (-30.5)
Computer: Ohio State (-30.62)
Ole Miss at Georgia - College GameDay will be in Athens for this one. Will Georgia make it 27 straight wins, or will the Rebels pull off a stunning upset?
Line: Georgia (-11.5)
Computer: Georgia (-7.13)
Michigan at Penn State - It's big for the B1G East race, and big for a Final Four spot.
Line: Michigan (-5.5)
Computer: Michigan (-4.62)
Miami at Florida State - It's not the Miami that Miami fans want to see, but the game is still Miami-FSU. And the "Noles can ill-afford a slip-up as they fight for the chance to return to make the playoffs for the first time since getting crushed 59-20 by Oregon in the 2014 semifinal Rose Bowl.
Line: Florida State (-14.5)
Computer: Florida State (-22.06)
Utah at Washington: The Utes will be looking for redemption after the 34-6 debacle at home against Oregon with College GameDay in town and a ton of excitement of reverberating around Salt Lake City. It was a big letdown.
Line: Washington (-9.5)
Computer: Washington (-5.08)
USC at Oregon: 3 losses in 4 games have destroyed USC's playoff chances and perhaps, undeservingly, Caleb Williams' back-to-back Heisman hopes. If USC had anything that even resembled a defense, they'd be fine.
Line: Oregon (-14.5)
Computer: Oregon (-12.78)
Texas at TCU: If you didn't go to school for either of these teams, or follow them closely, you would get this next question wrong. Which team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and 8 of the last 11? The answer is TCU.
Line: Texas (-10)
Computer: Texas (-12.46)
Alabama at Kentucky: Two schools with Bear Bryant in common. Not much else, aside from their membership in the SEC. The Tide are 38-2-1 all-time vs. the Wildcats with Kentucky wins in 1997 and 1922 to go with a 1939 tie.
Line: Alabama (-10.5)
Computer: Alabama (-9.20)
Only two teams remain undefeated after Air Force's surprising 23-3 loss to Army on Saturday in Denver. As everyone knows by now, undefeated James Madison is not eligible. The other unbeaten team is Liberty. Tulane, a 1-loss team, was the highest ranked team from a non-Autonomy conference in the Playoff Committee's first release.
(WEDNESDAY)
Easter Michigan at Toledo - With an 8-1 record, the Rockets are in the hunt.
Line: Toledo (-18.5)
Computer: Toledo (-18.41)
(SATURDAY)
Tulsa at Tulane: The Golden Hurricane are awful, but somehow have 3 wins. No way in h-e-double hockey sticks that they can win in New Orleans. Willie Fritz better hope his players didn't read this.
Line: Tulane (-22.50)
Computer: Tulane (-30.11)
Air Force at Hawaii - The Falcons are NOT completely out of the picture. Because the school plays 13 games, Hawaii (3-7) can still go bowling with wins it is last 3 games. The Warriors are coming off a 27-14 win at Nevada to snap a 4-game losing streak. The Falcons saw their 13-game winning streak end against Army.
Line: Air Force (-18.50)
Computer: Air Force (-20.92)
Old Dominion at Liberty: The Flames (9-0) are the only undefeated team from a Group of Five conference that is eligible to play in a New Year's Six game.
Line: Liberty (-13.5)
Computer: Liberty (-13.69)
(SEE: Complete Schedule/Picks)
So far, only Florida State and Liberty are locks for their respective conference championship games.
AAC (Home site of Regular Season champion): ? vs. ?
Tulane, SMU and UTSA are all 5-0 but 8 conference games are played.
ACC (at Charlotte): Florida State vs. ?
Florida State is locked-in and takes the outright regular season title with a win at home over Miami. Louisville (5-1) has the inside track to securing the other spot and would move a step closer with a win at home over Virginia this Thursday night. A slew of 2-loss teams move into the equation with a Louisville upset loss.
B1G (at Indianapolis): ? vs. ?
East: One would assume this is headed to the Ohio State at Michigan showdown, but Penn State hosts the Wolverines Saturday with hopes of changing that.
West: Iowa (4-2) has the inside track to the western half, but Nebraska, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all laying-in-wait at 3-3. The conference plays a 9-game slate so there is plenty of football left. A 7-way tie is possible. Don't believe us? Check this out.
Big 12 (at Arlington): ? vs. ?
Texas and Oklahoma State are both 5-1. Five teams are 4-2. Each school has 3 conference games left to complete a 9-game slate.
Conference USA (at Lynchburg): Liberty vs. ?
Liberty is locked-in and will host the game in Lynchburg. The Flames represent the only loss for both New Mexico State (5-1) and Jax State (5-1), but the Gamecocks are not eligible so it comes down to the Aggies or WKU (3-2). NMSU can clinch this Saturday with a win at the Hilltoppers. WKU opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and the computer likes the Tops to beat the spread with a projected margin of 6.99.
MAC: ? vs. ?
Each team plays 8 conference games so this isn't decided yet.
East: Miami (4-1) has 1-game edge over a trio of 3-2 schools - Bowling Green, Buffalo and Ohio.
West: Toledo is 5-0 while Central Michigan and Northern Illinois are 3-2.
MWC: ? vs. ?
There are no divisional races so the top two teams go, and only Colorado State and Hawaii are eliminated . Air Force saw its unbeaten run end against Army, but that was a non-conference game. The Falcons (5-0) lead Fresno State (4-1) and UNLV (4-1).
PAC-12: ? vs. ?
The final year of the conference, as we know it, looks like it will come down to a rematch of Washington and Oregon. The Huskies won 36-33 at home on October 14 and sit alone atop the standings at 6-0 with the Ducks at 5-1. Each team plays 9 conference games so USC (5-2) needs to win-out, beginning this week at Oregon. The trio of 4-2 schools consists of Arizona, Oregon State, and two-time defending champion Utah. Five teams are eliminated - Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Stanford and Washington State.
SEC: ? vs. ?
Teams play an 8-game slate and all but Missouri and Tennessee have played 6.
Eastern: Georgia (6-0) is 2 games up and clinches with a win at home over Ole Miss. Tennessee has a shot if Georgia loses as the Vols host the 'Dawgs the following week. Everyone else is locked-out. Tennessee visits Missouri which is eliminated and would love to put the Vols in the same boat. Tennessee's game starts at 3:30 eastern and Georgia follows at 7 eastern.
Western: Alabama and Ole Miss are the only teams left with a chance to win the division. 'Bama is at Kentucky at Noon eastern where a win makes it a done deal for the Tide. As mentioned above, Ole Miss is at Georgia at 7 eastern so the Rebels will know their own fate but could still thrown a wrench in Georgia's fate.
SUN BELT: ? vs. ?
East: James Madison is not eligible. Marshall is eliminated. The rest have a shot with Georgia Southern in control of its destiny while Coastal Carolina and App State have the next-best routes.
West: Troy controls its destiny. Southern Miss and UL-Monroe are eliminated. The rest need help.
Get more detail on all of the conference races.
This season has 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army playing two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that do NOT play a FCS program, 7 are in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three are Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
One FBC-FCS game will take place this week, with the remaining 4 on November 18. This week's game has Holy Cross at Army.
The FBS programs are 109-4 this year against the FCS schools. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,795-152 (.922) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Here are the FCS wins in 2023, so far:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
GEORGIA - Won 24 straight home games, 26 straight over-all, and 13 straight true road games.
Last: 30-21 home win over Missouri on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Hosts Ole Miss in its final home on Saturday, November 11.
MICHIGAN - Won 21 straight conference games.
Last: 41-13 home win over Purdue on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Penn State on Saturday, November 11.
SAM HOUSTON - Ended 10-game losing streak. Still has 8 straight losses to FBS teams since entering the FBS.
Last: 24-21 home win over FCS member Kennesaw State on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Louisiana Tech on Saturday, November 11.
VANDERBILT - Lost 8 straight over-all.
Last: 31-15 home to Auburn on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits South Carolina on Saturday, November 11.
UMASS - Ended 8-game home losing streak.
Last: 31-21 home win over FCS member Merrimack.
Next: Visits Liberty on Saturday, November 11.
STANFORD - Lost 7 straight home games.
Last: Won 10-7 at Washington State on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Oregon State on Saturday, November 11.
NORTHWESTERN - Lost 14 straight road games.
Last: 10-7 home loss to Iowa on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Wisconsin on Saturday, November 11.
MICHIGAN STATE - Ended 7-game conference losing streak.
Last: 20-17 home win over Nebraska on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Ohio State on Saturday, November 11.
ULM - Lost 8 straight conference games.
Last: Lost 24-7 at Southern Miss on Saturday, November 4.
Next: Visits Louisiana on Thursday, November 9.