Weather to be an Issue for Three of the NFL Conference Semifinal Games This Weekend

January 17, 2025 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Other than the Ravens at Bills, all of this weekends games have spreads of at least a touchdown at the FanDuel Sportsbook. As of this morning, the odds on all four games includes the "hook" which is the extra 1/2-point that makes a push impossible and improves the payout of a winning wager. It also opens the door for losing your bet by the hook which can be extremely frustrating when it leads to the 'bad beat'.

Cold weather will have a direct effect on three of the games (one is indoors at Detroit), and possibly heavy snow could bring its own set of problems in Philadelphia.

Baltimore is a somewhat surprising 1.5-point favorite for a night game (6:30 p.m. ET) in Buffalo while the NFL Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have the home team by a scant 0.81. The over/under is 51.5 for a game that will feature some of the top offensive players in the game with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson at QB, and Derrick Henry at running back, just to name a few. But, the game will also be played in extremely cold conditions with temps in the mid-teens, accompanied by winds of 10-15 mph that will make it feel like it's near zero, or even below. Given that the high is only expected to be around 19, the ground is going to feel like concrete and the offenses may have a difficult time time topping the 51.5-point total. By the way, there's also a 40% chance of flurries or snow showers.

By the time this one kicks off on Sunday, we'll already know which teams will play for the NFC Championship as the Rams-Eagles game precedes it at 3 p.m., and the Commanders-Lions contest is on Saturday night at 8 at climate-controlled Ford Field. The other AFC contest is also on Saturday with the Texans and Chiefs kicking off at Arrowhead at 4:30 where the weather will be only slightly warmer than Buffalo, but with no snow expected.

In Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon, there is a 90% chance of heavy, wet snow with temps hovering around 32.

The Chiefs and Lions are both 8.5-point favorites in their respective games, while the Eagles are sitting at 6-and-a-half. The computer has an under number on Kansas City at 5.95, and puts Detroit over the spread at 12.71. It also has the Eagles slightly over at 7.29.

Consider the snow in the forecast when contemplating taking the over or under of 43.5 for the Rams and Eagles. We see this one as a bit of a toss-up of reaching that total, while we would go over on the 41.5 in Kansas City.

Meanwhile, the Lions and Commanders could have no trouble topping the 55.5 total with the perfect indoor conditions for two offense that were in the top five for scoring in the regular season with Detroit averaging 33.2 and Washington averaging 28.5. As for scoring defense, Washington was 18th at 23 points per game while Detroit surrendered an average of 20.1 to rank 7th-best. The biggest concern in the Motor City will be for travel to the game as there is an 80% chance of morning snow that will taper off in the afternoon.

For the record, the Cowboys-Packers "Ice Bowl' game on December 31, 1967 remains, by a mile, the coldest NFL game ever played. The Pack won the NFC Championship contest by a score of 21-17 in negative-13 air temps with a wind-chill of minus-48. Not only does it top the list of coldest games, it also ranks near the top of all-time greatest games ever played as a Bart Starr quarterback sneak secured the win with 13 seconds left in the game.