News/Commentary

Was Your Team Over-rated or Under-rated in the Preseason Forecast?

October 19, 2019 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Using the Congrove Computer Rankings, here is the difference in power rating for all 130 teams from their preseason expectation to their current standing. The ranking is order for the team that has seen the greatest increase in power rating from its expectation (Navy, +11.32), to the greatest decrease in power rating (Virginia Tech, -10.2)

105 of the 130 FBS teams, or 80.7% of all teams, have seen a difference of less than 5 power points in either direction. 78 teams have fluctuated by 3 points or less.

TEAM START POWER NEW POWER + OR -
Navy 38.93 50.25 11.32
Central Michigan 38.00 46.56 8.56
Wisconsin 82.42 90.98 8.56
Central Florida 63.96 71.81 7.86
North Carolina 58.70 66.13 7.44
Tulane 58.70 65.75 7.05
Southern Methodist 57.15 64.15 7.00
Louisiana-Lafayette 59.55 66.14 6.59
Alabama 87.71 93.94 6.23
Penn State 82.45 88.49 6.03
Ohio State 95.84 101.18 5.34
Boise State 63.63 68.02 4.39
Wyoming 52.22 56.60 4.38
Florida Atlantic 53.73 57.84 4.10
FCS 32.22 36.29 4.07
Houston 57.24 60.96 3.72
Maryland 65.03 68.69 3.66
Rice 41.50 44.95 3.45
Kent State 47.30 50.71 3.42
Ala.-Birmingham 48.87 52.04 3.17
Georgia State 47.71 50.55 2.84
Louisiana Tech 53.91 56.64 2.73
Southern California 73.78 76.50 2.72
Air Force 55.59 58.28 2.69
Utah State 60.14 62.69 2.55
Temple 58.67 61.03 2.36
Memphis 62.10 64.42 2.32
Colorado State 44.10 46.40 2.30
Louisville 64.20 66.46 2.26
Cincinnati 72.35 74.61 2.26
San Diego State 55.46 57.68 2.21
Western Michigan 60.20 62.34 2.14
San Jose State 43.42 45.51 2.10
Army 54.53 56.57 2.03
Western Kentucky 51.07 52.93 1.86
Washington 81.03 82.87 1.84
Old Dominion 43.08 44.86 1.78
Toledo 53.96 55.74 1.78
Ball State 54.21 55.96 1.75
Hawaii 61.39 63.04 1.65
Iowa 81.91 83.47 1.56
Liberty 51.98 53.49 1.51
Utah 83.27 84.75 1.48
Clemson 91.58 92.91 1.32
Nevada-Las Vegas 50.91 52.23 1.32
Indiana 71.51 72.78 1.27
Appalachian State 66.27 67.53 1.27
Oklahoma 87.92 88.94 1.02
Oklahoma State 72.98 73.74 0.75
Oregon 89.73 90.39 0.67
Auburn 87.97 88.58 0.61
Southern Mississippi 60.12 60.64 0.53
Coastal Carolina 53.42 53.89 0.48
Kansas State 71.16 71.61 0.44
East Carolina 44.46 44.87 0.41
Arkansas 58.23 58.62 0.39
Texas Tech 67.25 67.62 0.37
Charlotte 47.79 48.13 0.35
Florida 84.49 84.69 0.20
Texas 81.49 81.62 0.12
Baylor 76.42 76.50 0.08
Kansas 57.09 57.11 0.02
Georgia 92.84 92.77 -0.07
Louisiana State 96.57 96.49 -0.08
Buffalo 53.00 52.88 -0.11
South Florida 57.66 57.54 -0.13
Tulsa 51.44 51.25 -0.20
Fresno State 57.35 57.02 -0.32
Texas Christian 73.92 73.56 -0.36
Miami (O) 52.48 51.89 -0.60
Iowa State 85.23 84.57 -0.66
Missouri 84.71 83.99 -0.72
Purdue 72.16 71.43 -0.72
Miami (FLA) 71.03 70.26 -0.76
Bowling Green 41.18 40.36 -0.81
California 72.33 71.51 -0.82
New Mexico 41.41 40.57 -0.83
South Alabama 44.91 44.04 -0.87
Northern Illinois 56.79 55.85 -0.93
Louisiana-Monroe 56.09 55.07 -1.02
Oregon State 65.78 64.67 -1.11
Nebraska 70.8 69.64 -1.16
Texas-El Paso 38.75 37.43 -1.33
Middle Tennessee 58.30 56.90 -1.40
Colorado 65.87 64.40 -1.47
Ohio 58.45 56.94 -1.51
Troy 61.02 59.46 -1.56
Eastern Michigan 52.47 50.85 -1.62
Mississippi 72.30 70.28 -2.02
Notre Dame 90.46 88.42 -2.04
Boston College 68.68 66.56 -2.13
Texas State 50.35 48.04 -2.31
Arkansas State 58.15 55.82 -2.33
Duke 80.91 78.57 -2.34
South Carolina 85.08 82.72 -2.36
North Texas 59.44 56.82 -2.62
Brigham Young 66.71 64.03 -2.68
Florida State 75.76 73.07 -2.69
Virginia 78.09 75.09 -3,00
Arizona 72.18 69.16 -3.02
Arizona State 79.34 76.14 -3.20
Connecticut 44.97 41.37 -3.61
UTSA 45.29 41.66 -3.63
Texas A & M 84.40 80.73 -3.67
Minnesota 83.44 79.57 -3.88
Wake Forest 75.48 71.57 -3.91
Illinois 72.28 68.28 -4.00
Pittsburgh 75.38 71.37 -4.01
Florida International 63.23 59.21 -4.02
New Mexico State 47.95 43.92 -4.03
North Carolina State 75.92 71.88 -4.04
Stanford 82.25 78.15 -4.10
Georgia Southern 65.73 61.13 -4.60
West Virginia 73.58 68.94 -4.64
Michigan State 87.66 82.92 -4.74
UCLA 72.53 67.75 -4.78
Kentucky 78.30 73.46 -4.84
Marshall 65.41 60.28 -5.13
Mississippi State 82.94 77.60 -5.34
Tennessee 77.70 72.15 -5.55
Northwestern 86.43 80.77 -5.66
Michigan 96.68 90.43 -6.26
Rutgers 59.54 52.98 -6.56
Washington State 86.58 79.99 -6.59
Akron 44.84 37.90 -6.94
Nevada 56.45 49.17 -7.28
Georgia Tech 68.21 60.19 -8.02
Massachusetts 38.73 30.33 -8.39
Syracuse 85.57 76.63 -8.94
Vanderbilt 73.48 63.95 -9.53
Virginia Tech 78.90 68.70 -10.20