UPDATED: Week 15 Picks and Preview

December 12, 2020 by Staff

Two of the biggest college football games that had been scheduled for this week have been stricken from the slate due to Covid concerns - Michigan at Ohio State, and Cincinnati at Tulsa. Another game was canceled in player protest over comments allegedly made by the school president about its interim head coach. Week 15 now presents 37 contests, and the computer has 11 picks going opposite the opening line.

California at Washington State was canceled two hours before the kick-off on Saturday.

Also canceled are Utah State-Colorado, Washington-Oregon, Ole Miss-Texas A&M, Ohio-Kent State, and Charlotte-Marshall, Incarnate Word-Arkansas State, Purdue-Indiana, Texas-Kansas, Oklahoma-West Virginia, and Miami (O)-Bowling Green.

Among the more interesting and impactful games left on this week's schedule are Utah at Colorado, Nevada at San Jose State, UAB at Rice, Western Michigan-Ball State, and North Carolina-Miami.

Get the computer's pick of every game.

There are a handful of state matches with Arizona State at Arizona, Tennessee at Vanderbilt, and Virginia at Virginia Tech. There is also the city rivalry of USC-UCLA for the victory bell and, of course, Army-Navy in the biggest rivalry of them all.

Army-Navy

The 121st meeting of Army and Navy will take place in West Point today, making it the first time this rivalry has been hosted by Army since 1943. Navy hasn't hosted since 1942. This would have been the 90th meeting in Philadelphia but, of course, Coronavirus concerns and restrictions led to the move to Michie Stadium.

Army comes in to this year's game with the better record at 7-2, but just 4-2 vs. FBS schools and 3-0 vs. FCS teams. Navy enters on a 4-game losing streak with a 3-6 mark, all against FBS teams.

When: 3pm ET
TV: CBS
Series: 62-51-7, Navy
Last year: Navy, 31-7
Line: Army (-5.5)
Computer: Navy (-5.28)

Utah State-Colorado State Canceled In Player Unanimous Protest

The Utah State-Colorado State game was canceled on a unanimous vote by the players in support of interim head coach Frank Maile after an incident on a Zoom call between Maile, Utah State administrators and some players. The purpose of the call was for the players to lobby in support of Maile who is being replaced by Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson. Nothing about the incident or the cancellation was posted on the Utah State athletics website late Friday, nor did the football schedule even list the game as being canceled. The Colorado State website confirmed the cancellation and the Mountain West league office only said: "The football game between Utah State and Colorado State scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 12, in Fort Collins, Colorado, has been canceled. The official standing of the game will be determined at a later date."

In a statement provided to Stadium, Utah State's players wrote: "The Utah State football players have decided to opt out of our game against Colorado State due to ongoing inequality and prejudicial issues between the players, coaches, and the USU administration.

"On Tuesday, December 8th, the Utah State University Football Leadership Council held a zoom meeting with Noelle Cockett, President of USU, and John Hartwell, the Athletic Director. The purpose of the meeting was to have a say in the search for our new head coach. During the meeting, we voiced our support for Interim Head Coach Frank Maile. In response to our comments, their primary concern was his religious and cultural background. Players, stating their diverse faiths and backgrounds, then jumped to Coach Frank Maile's defense in treating everyone with love, equality, and fairness.

"It is not the first time issues of repeated discrimination have happened. In December 2019, our head equipment manager used a racial slur against one of our African-American teammates. After disregarding the incident, pressure resurfaced to investigate in the summer of 2020. After the investigation, the administration concluded he would continue to be employed."

Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson resigned on Thursday to become Utah State's new coach.

"We want our message to be clear that this has nothing to do with the hiring of Coach Blake Anderson, the recently-named head coach of the program," the players wrote. "We are sure he is an excellent coach; we look forward to meeting him and his staff. We are highlighting the ongoing problems of inequality and want to create a better future for the community of Logan and Utah State University."

Conference Championship Matchups and Possibilities

*-Denotes team has clinched a berth

American: *Tulsa at *Cincinnati
These two have clinched appearances in the conference championship game, but they were also supposed to face each other this week in the regular season finale with the winner getting to host the rematch. With that game being canceled due to covid concerns at Cincinnati, the Bearcats will host the title game by default as they already meet the bar of possessing the higher ranking. As of today, Cincinnati would be a roughly 16-point computer favorite.

Tulsa was preseason projected by the computer to win 1 game and finish 10th. Phil Steele, Lindy's and Athlon's all predicted 9th or 10th-place finishes in the 11 team race. The computer picked Cincinnati to be the champs.

ACC: *Clemson vs. *Notre Dame at Charlotte
This matchup is all set and both teams have completed their regular season. The computer, and virtually everyone else, preseason picked these teams to play the title. Right now, Clemson is a 5.39-point computer favorite in the championship game.

Big Ten: *Northwestern vs. *Ohio State at Indianapolis
The Michigan-Ohio State game was canceled on Tuesday, leaving the conference in a quandary over the edict that a team must play 6 games to be eligible for the conference championship game. Ohio State is 5-0, including a 42-35 win over Indiana, and would've clinched the title on the filed come win or lose vs. Michigan. Thus, the Big Ten waived the rule and Ohio State is in.

If the championship game were played today, and Ohio State was Northwestern's opponent, the Wildcats would be a 21.94-point underdog. But the 'Cats are used to getting no respect. After all, they were preseason picked by most major prognosticators to finish 5th, 6th or last in the 7-team division. Northwestern was picked to finish 2nd by ESPN's Football Power Index and 6th by the CCR.

Big Twelve: *Iowa State vs. *Oklahoma at Arlington
Note: Oklahoma State and West Virginia both lost on Saturday and were eliminated from the discussion.
Iowa State defeated Oklahoma 37-30 in Ames on October 3 and the Cyclones will have a chance to claim their first conference championship since 1912 when they were co-champions of the Missouri Valley Conference. Either way, they can claim a regular season title.

The computer's preseason projections had Oklahoma 1st and Iowa State 3rd. No other major on-line preview or publication had Iowa State higher than 4th.

Iowa State is idle this week while Oklahoma visits West Virginia as an 11-point Vegas favorite and a 17.53-point computer pick..

If the championship game were played today, the computer would favor Oklahoma by 12.19 points.

CUSA: (Most likely) FAU vs. (most likely) UAB at Huntington
Still alive: Marshall, UTSA

East division: The Charlotte-Marshall cancellation changed everything. Had that game been played, and had Marshall won, the Herd would have clinched the division. But now, it's all up to FAU - win and they're in, or lose and Marshall backs in to the division title. FAU is an 8-point Vegas favorite at Southern Miss on Thursday night, but a 1.30-point computer underdog.

West division: UAB is in with a win at Rice.

Western Kentucky was favored by most to win the east division and the computer had the Hilltoppers playing UAB. Athlon had Marshall playing UAB, while the ESPN FPI had Florida Atlantic playing UAB. Western Kentucky went 5-6 after a 2-6 start.

MAC: *Buffalo vs. Western Michigan or Ball State at Detroit
Buffalo is a 32.5-point Vegas favorite, and 26.51-point computer favorite to win at Akron on Saturday and improve to 5-0.

The west division comes down to this week's de facto division title matchup of Western Michigan at Ball State. Both Vegas (-3) and the computer (-3.77) like the Cardinals to prevail.

If played today, Buffalo would be favored by the computer over WMU and BSU.

The computer's preseason forecast had Buffalo playing Central Michigan with Western Michigan picked to finish 2nd in the west and Ball State 3rd. Virtually all other publications and predictors had Toledo winning the west.

MOUNTAIN WEST: (Most likely matchup and location) Boise State vs. San Jose State at Boise
Still Alive: Nevada

Boise State is favored by Vegas (-13) and the computer (-7.61) to clinch a title game spot with a win at Wyoming on Saturday.

San Jose State is favored by Vegas (-3) on Friday to clinch the other spot with a win over Nevada, but the computer has the Wolf Pack by 5.62 in this de facto playoff game. The Spartans had to relocate home base to Las Vegas due to lockdown measures in Santa Clara County.

If Boise State and San Jose State both lose, the conference would determine the championship game pairing by strength of schedule in MWC games. It would appear that such a scenario would still lead to a Boise State-Nevada matchup.

If played today, Boise State would be at least a 10-point computer favorite over either SJSU or Nevada.

The computer's preseason forecast had Boise State playing San Diego State in the championship game. Some had BSU playing Nevada. None had SJSU pocked to finish in the upper half of the conference.

PAC-12: Washington or Oregon vs. USC or Colorado

North division: Oregon hosts Washington in a de facto playoff game. The Ducks are favored by Vegas (-5) and the computer (-10.15).

South division: USC is in with a win at UCLA, or a Colorado loss. The Trojans are favored by 3.5 in Vegas and a whopping 15.04 in the computer. A USC loss and a Colorado win at home over Utah puts the Buffaloes in. Colorado is favored by 2 in Vegas, but the computer has the Buffs as a huge 8/24-point underdog.

The computer's preseason forecast had Cal topping Oregon in the north and USC winning the south. Everyone had Colorado 4th or lower in its division.

SEC: *Alabama vs. *Florida at Atlanta

If played today, the Tide would be favored to defeat the Gators by 8.28. This will be the 10th time these teams have played for the title with Alabama winning 5 of the previous 9 and the Gators' last beating the Tide in the  championship game 2008.

The computer's preseason forecast had a Georgia-Alabama matchup in the championship game.

SEC Championship Games involving Alabama and Florida:

Date Result Site
12/5/92 Alabama 28, Florida 21 Birmingham
12/4/93 Florida 28, Alabama 13 Birmingham
12/3/94 Florida 24, Alabama 23 Atlanta
12/7/96 Florida 45, Alabama 30 Atlanta
12/4/99 Alabama 34, Florida 7 Atlanta
12/6/08 Florida 31, Alabama 20 Atlanta
12/5/09 Alabama 32, Florida 13 Atlanta
12/5/15 Alabama 29, Florida 15 Atlanta
12/3/16 Alabama 54, Florida 16 Atlanta

SUN BELT: *Coastal Carolina vs. *Louisiana at Conway, SC

Louisiana is idle this week while Coastal Carolina completes the season at Troy.

If played today, Louisiana would be an 8.11-point computer pick in this rematch which Coastal won 30-27 on October 14 in Lafayette. UL-L was a 15-point computer pick in that game.

The preseason forecasts unanimously had Appalachian State playing Louisiana for the championship, just as they had in the previous two seasons. Most predictors had the Chanticleers last in their division, but the computer picked them to go 7-4.

FCS vs. FBS

This Saturday's schedule final FBS-FCS matchup of Incaranate Word at Arkansas State was canceled and no other FBS-FCS games are remaining to be played.

A total of 30 FBS teams played a total of 34 games against FCS schools this season with the FBS going 33-1. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,468-128 (.920).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here is the only FCS win vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

NOTRE DAME - Won 16 straight over-all (FBS longest).
Last: Won 45-21 at home over Syracuse on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Regular season complete. Plays Clemson in Charlotte for ACC title on Saturday, December 19.

OHIO STATE - Won 20 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 9 straight road games (FBS longest). Won 21 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 52-12 at Michigan State on Saturday, December 5.
Next: December 12 game vs. Michigan canceled. Plays Northwestern in Big Ten Championship game at Indianapolis on Saturday, December 19.

CLEMSON - Won 28 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 45-10 at Virginia Tech on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Regular season complete. Plays Notre Dame in Charlotte for ACC title on Saturday, December 19.

NEW MEXICO - Ended 14-game losing streak and FBS longest 20-game conference losing streak with 17-16 win over Wyoming in make-shift home of Las Vegas. Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 17-16 vs. Wyoming in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Hosts Fresno State in Las Vegas (New Mexico's adopted home) on Saturday, December 12.

AKRON - Ended FBS longest losing streaks of 20 straight overall and 9 straight home games with 31-3 rout of Bowling Green.
Still owns 11-game road losing streak (FBS second-longest).
Last: Won 31-3 at home over Bowling Green on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Saturday, December 12 at Buffalo.

KANSAS - Lost 13 straight overall (FBS longest), 6 straight home games (tied with Rutgers for FBS longest).
Last: 16-13 loss at Texas Tech on Saturday, December 5.
Next: December 12 game vs. Texas canceled. No more games presently scheduled.

UTEP - Lost 14 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 52-21 at UTSA on November 14.
Next: Visits North Texas on Friday, December 11.