UPDATED: Week 14 Picks, Preview

November 30, 2020 by Staff

Before week 14 begins, we had the remnants of week 13 to clean up with the Western Kentucky-Charlotte game on Tuesday. On Monday, however, Charlotte officials said it could not move forward with that contest. No update was provided on the status of Charlotte's scheduled home game this Saturday against FIU. For now, it is still part of what would be a 53-game slate, barring the almost certain cancellation of some games. Over 25% of the schedule was affected last week.

Alabama finds itself back atop the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. Tuesday night, we expect the playoff rankings committee will reach the same conclusion. We projected the committee's opening top seven perfectly with the exception of having Clemson and Ohio State flipped.

It will be interesting to see how the committee treats Ohio State, given that the Buckeyes have only played one game since November 7, and just 4 games for the season. We personally would not demote them for that reason if the committee is truly relying on the "eye test" to guide their collective decision. Therefore, don't be a bit surprised if, once again, the top seven is Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida, and Cincinnati.

This week, Alabama visits LSU, Notre Dame hosts Syracuse, Clemson heads to Virginia Tech, Ohio State visits Michigan State, Texas A&M travels to Auburn, and Florida visits Tennessee.

Cincinnati is idle before its all-important trip to Tulsa next week for a matchup between the only teams that are undefeated in American conference play. The Bearcats have already clinched a spot in the title game. If Tulsa handles Navy in Annapolis this week, it will clinch the other spot and the regular season finale with Cincinnati next week will decide which of those two teams gets to be the host of the championship game rematch.

The week opens with a pair of Thursday night games when Air Force visits Utah State, and Louisiana Tech goes to North Texas.

There is also a pair of games on Friday with Louisiana visiting Appalachian State, and Boise State visiting UNLV.

Appalachian State is already eliminated from the Sun Belt championship game after a 4-year run of titles or co-titles. Louisiana has clinched the west and will face Coastal Carolina for the league crown. The Chanticleers, which defeated the Ragin' Cajuns 30-27 in Lafayette on October 14, will host the rematch.

This week, Coastal Carolina is involved in one of the two matchups of Top 25 teams in the AP Poll. The No. 14 Chants will host 25th-ranked Liberty, while No. 10 Indiana visits 18th-ranked Wisconsin.

The computer has 9 picks this week in which it favors the Vegas underdog to win outright. Commonly referred to as "opposites" or simply "upsets", the computer is taking BGSU narrowly over Akron, Arizona easily over Colorado, Ohio by a slim margin over offense juggernaut Buffalo, Tennessee shockingly over Florida, Hawaii over San Jose State on the mainland, SMU over Houston, Miami (O) over Kent State, Memphis over Tulane, and Navy over Tulsa.

The computer was 4-1 straight up and against the spread with last week's upset plays.

SEE: Weekly Picks

Conference Championship Matchups and Possibilities
(As best we can determine)

American

Likely Matchup: Cincinnati (clinched) vs. Tulsa at Cincinnati
Still Alive: Memphis (barely)

ACC

Likely Matchup: Clemson vs. Notre Dame at Charlotte
Still Alive: Miami (barely)

Big Ten

Likely Matchup: Northwestern (clinched) vs. Ohio State at Indianapolis
Still Alive: Indiana (If Ohio State does not complete requisite number of games)

Big Twelve

Likely Matchup: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma at Arlington
Still Alive: Oklahoma State, West Virginia (barely)

CUSA

Likely Matchup: Marshall vs. UTSA or UAB, most likely at Huntington
Still Alive: No one has clinched and half the field is still mathematically aive

MAC

Most Likely: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan at Detroit
Still Alive: Up to 8 teams are in the chase

MOUNTAIN WEST

Most Likely: Boise State vs. San Jose State, most likely at Boise
Still Alive: Nevada, Fresno State, San Diego State (barely)

PAC-12

Most Likely: Washington vs. USC at home site of team with best conference win percentage
Still Alive: Dang near everyone, but Colorado, UCLA, Oregon and Oregon State are most realistic

SEC:

Most Likely: Alabama vs. Florida at Atlanta
Still Alive: Texas A&M, Georgia

SUN BELT:

Most Likely: Coastal Carolina (clinched) vs. Louisiana (clinched) at Conway, SC
Still Alive: No one

Thanks For Trying, UMass

It wasn't a good season for UMass which finished 0-4 and was outscored 161-12, but we truly do appreciate the effort with no home games on a very strong schedule. They began at Georgia Southern on October 17 and lost 41-0. Three weeks later, the Minutemen fell 51-10 at Marshall. Two more weeks went by before UMass traveled to FAU and lost 24-2. A week later - on the Friday after Thanksgiving - the Minutemen lost 45-0 at Liberty.

The current combined record of their opponents is 27-7. Heading into this week's games, Marshall is 7-0, Liberty 9-1, FAU 5-1, and Georgia Southern 6-4.

FCS vs. FBS

30 FBS teams are playing a total of 35 games against FCS schools this season.

There were no such games this past week and only two remain for the season. Western Carolina visits North Carolina this week, and Incarnate Word goes to Arkansas State on December 12.

FBS teams are 32-1 in such matchups this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,467-128 (.920).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here is the only FCS win vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

NOTRE DAME - Won 15 straight over-all (FBS longest).
Last: Won 31-17 at North Carolina on Friday, November 27.
Next: Hosts Syracuse on Saturday, December 5.

OHIO STATE - Won 19 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 8 straight road games (FBS longest). Won 20 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
Last: Game at Illinois on Saturday, November 28 was canceled due to Covid issues within the Buckeyes' program..
Next: Visits Michigan State on Saturday, December 5.

CLEMSON - Won 28 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 52-17 at home versus Pitt on Saturday, November 28.
Next: Visits Virginia Tech on Saturday, December 5.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 20 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 41-27 at Utah State on Thursday, November 26.
Next: Plays Wyoming in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 5.

AKRON - Lost 20 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight home games (FBS longest). Lost 11 straight road games (FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 38-7 at home to Miami (O) on Saturday, November 28.
Next: Hosts Bowling Green on Saturday, December 5.