UPDATED: Week 10 Preview, Picks and Feature Picks

November 6, 2020 by Staff

This week's college football schedule continued to shrink on Friday and what began as a 59-game slate is now down to 49 contests. The MAC made its 2020 debut with 6 games on Wednesday, the Mountain West played a double-header on Thursday, and three more games will take place Friday night. That leaves us with a nice assortment of 39 matchups on Saturday, including the inaugural games for 8 of the 12 members of the PAC-12.

Every member of the PAC-12 had been slated to play on Saturday, but the Washington-Cal game was canceled due to Covid issues at Cal. On Friday, the Arizona-Utah game was also announced as canceled due to Covid issues at Utah. Also on Friday, Charlotte at MTSU, and UTSA at Rice were added to the list of cancellations or postponements that already included FIU-UTEP, Louisiana Tech-North Texas, Tulsa-Navy, Purdue-Wisconsin, Air Force-Army and Louisville-Virginia.

The game between the Cards and Cavaliers was pushed back to next week (November 14th), but there is no room to make up either the Washington-Cal or Purdue-Wisconsin games.

There is some consideration being given to moving the Air Force-Army game to December 19 to make certain that every contest in the round-robin competition for the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy gets played. Air Force can take possession of the coveted hardware with a win over Army as the Falcons have already defeated Navy, 40-7, back on October 3rd. The oddsmakers had the Black Knights favored by 6-1/2, but the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com had nearly the exact opposite outcome predicted with the Falcons giving 7.29. Now, the next contest between the three teams will be the Army-Navy showdown on December 12 at West Point.

Officials also announced on Friday that the Louisiana Tech-North Texas game had been rescheduled for Thursday, December 3. And FAU and UMass announced on that they had scheduled a game for Friday, November 20 in Boca Raton. The Minutemen now have 4 games scheduled, all on the road.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin's (1-0) cancellation of the Purdue game at home follows the decision not to play at Nebraska the previous week. The Badgers were a whopping 23.43-point computer pick over the Boilermakers, well over the 8-point Vegas spread. Wisconsin was the computer's preseason pick to win the Big Ten championship, but the opportunity to do so is now in jeopardy because the conference has stipulated that a team must play at least six of its planned 8 games to be eligible for the championship game. That requirement would be lowered if the average number of regular-season games played by all conference teams falls below six. If the average falls below six, the minimum would then become two fewer games than the average (i.e. a minimum of four games if all Big Ten teams play an average of six games)."

Let's turn our attention to the games that are still on the docket.

The three games tonight (Friday) feature an ACC matchup, another Mountain West tussle and a non-conference affair with BYU at Boise State which is one of four matchups this week between teams ranked in the AP Top 25. The Cougars are ranked 9th and the Broncos are 21st.

The top game this week involves a pair of ACC teams vying for a Final Four spot, but there's a possibility both could get into the playoff regardless of what happens this weekend. Somewhat surprisingly, No. 1 Clemson is still a touchdown Vegas favorite at 4th-ranked Notre Dame on Saturday, despite the fact that QB Trevor Lawrence is unavailable for the Tigers. The computer also likes Clemson, but well under the spread at 1.62 points. This past weekend, Clemson fell behind Boston College 28-10 in the 2nd quarter before rallying with a second-half shutout out the Eagles to grab a 34-28 win behind true freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei.

In the preseason, not many would have thought that Indiana would be ranked, let alone ranked higher than Michigan (#23) for their battle this week in Bloomington on Saturday. The Hoosiers followed their upset of Penn State with a 37-21 win at Rutgers to climb from 17th to 13th, and now look for their first 3-0 start since 1988. The computer projected Indiana to finish 6-2 with a 4-0 start that would include a win this week over the Wolverines, and next week at Michigan State. The computer has Indiana by 3.81 points while the oddsmakers installed Michigan as a 3.5-point pick. The Hoosiers have lost 24 straight to the Wolverines and have an all-time series record of 9-59.

No. 8 Florida and No. 5 Georgia stage their annual rivalry game in Jacksonville this week with the Bulldogs listed as a 4-1/2-point Vegas pick and a 0.26-point computer choice. The schools are tied for the lead in the SEC's eastern division, two games ahead of any other challengers. The winner of this game has gone on to secure the division title in each of the last 5 seasons. Georgia has won the last 3 meetings.

The AP's second-ranked team, Alabama, is one of just 10 programs idle this week. 6 of those schools are in the Southeastern Conference.

Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State share the Big12 lead, each with 1 loss. This week, the Wildcats and Cowboys go toe-to-toe in the "Little Apple" with the visitors favored by 10 at most prominent sportsbooks while the computer likes Mike Gundy's team by 9.30. This past Saturday, Kansas State was whipped 37-10 at West Virginia and Oklahoma State fell 41-34 at home in overtime to Texas. Meanwhile, the Cyclones visit Baylor as a 13.5-point Vegas favorite, but just a 3.43-point computer pick.

In one of just four non-conference games this week, undefeated and 25th-ranked Liberty (6-0) takes the 2-hour bus ride from Lynchburg to Blacksburg to face unranked Virginia Tech (4-2) as a 14.5-point underdog. The other three non-conference games are North Alabama (FCS) at Southern Miss, BYU and Boise State (Friday) and UMass at Marshall.

The computer sees the Liberty-Virginia Tech contest as a rout with the Hokies favored by 37.08 points. Their only previous meeting occurred in 2016 - when the Flames were a FCS program - with Virginia Tech prevailing 36-13 in Justin Fuente's first season as head coach of the Hokies. We highlight this game because it has all the makings of a mighty upset, similar to Tech's 49-35 loss at Old Dominion in 2018. Liberty's offense is statistically solid, generating 423 yards and 33 points per game, and both defenses have been horrendous.

BYU, ranked 9th in the latest AP Poll, will be looking for its first win in Boise on its sixth trip. Overall, the 21st-ranked Broncos lead the series 7-3, but find themselves as 3.5-point underdogs in the sportsbooks after the line moved up form an open that had BYU giving 2 points. The computer sees it differently, taking the home team by 2.33 points. The computer has the Cougars ranked 27th and the Broncos 28th. (Among teams having played at least one game, BYU is 17th and BSU is 18th).

Northwestern was projected by the computer to win just 2 of its 8 scheduled games with the victories coming over Maryland in week 1 and Nebraska this week. But thanks to a week 2 comeback triumph over Iowa, the Wildcats will be 3-0 if they prevail on Saturday against Nebraska in Evanston. The 'Cats are a 4-point Vegas favorite and a 3.43-point computer choice.

Saturday's football action gets underway really early if you live and play on the west coast where Arizona State at USC will kick-off at 9 a.m. local time. The Trojans are a 10-1/2-point Vegas favorite and an 11.16-point computer pick.

See the computer's pick for every game this week.

Also see our Feature Picks.

FCS vs. FBS

31 FBS teams are playing a total of 35 games against FCS schools this season.

Only one such game is on the docket this week with Southern Miss hosting North Alabama.

FBS teams are 27-1 in such matchups this season. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,462-128 (.919).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here are the FCS wins vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 35 straight regular season games (FBS longest) games. Won 29 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 27 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 14 straight true road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 34-28 at home vs. Boston College on Saturday, October 31.
Next: Visits Notre Dame on Saturday, November 7.

NOTRE DAME - Won 12 straight over-all (FBS-longest)
Last: Won 31-1 at Georgia Tech on Saturday, October 31.
Next: Hosts Clemson on Saturday, November 7.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 16 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 10 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 38-21 at San Jose State on Saturday, October 31. Game was originally scheduled to be played at New Mexico but had to be moved due to Covid issues in Albuquerque.
Next: Visits Hawaii on Saturday, November 7.

AKRON - Lost 17 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 8 straight home games (FBS longest). Lost 9 straight road games (FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 52-3 at home to Ohio on November 26, 2019.
Next: Season opener at home versus Western Michigan on Wednesday, November 4.