UPDATE: Championship Week Picks and Preview; Sun Belt Championship Canceled

December 18, 2020 by Staff

Covid issues at Coastal Carolina caused the Sun Belt Championship game to be canceled. The Chanticleers (11-0, 8-0) were scheduled to host Louisiana (9-1, 7-1) on Saturday in a rematch of a regular season game which Coastal Carolina won 30-27 in Lafayette.

This is the third CCU game to be canceled this season by covid, but the first time that the cause has been rooted in the Chanticleers' program. The TRoy and Liberty games were scratched due to issues at each of those schools.

The Sun Belt ruled that both teams are recognized as co-champions.

Washington has had to back out of the PAC-12 Championship game, making way for Oregon to play for the conference title at USC on Friday night.

A statement posted on the Huskies' website read as follows: "This decision was made under the Pac-12's football game cancellation policy and Football Championship Game policy due to Washington neither having the minimum 53 scholarship student-athletes available for the game nor the minimum number of scholarship student-athletes at a position group, in each case as a result of a number of positive football student-athlete COVID-19 cases and resulting isolation of additional football student-athletes under contact tracing protocols."

The statement went on to explain, "Under Pac-12 Football Championship Game policy, the team with the next best record in the North Division, Oregon, will represent the North Division against South Division Champion USC."

The switch not only means that Washington's (3-1) regular season is over, but so is Colorado's (4-1) as the Buffs were scheduled to play Oregon in Los Angeles on Saturday.

The Louisiana-Monroe (0-10, 0-7) game at Troy (5-6, 3-4) on Thursday has also been canceled due to Covid issues in the Warhawks' program. Both teams finished with the exact records the computer predicted in the preseason, overall and in conference play.

Arizona-Cal and Vanderbilt-Georgia are also off the list. And Covid also forced Indiana at Purdue to cancel the 'Old Oaken Bucket' game for the second straight week.

The Michigan-Iowa game has fallen victim to the Covid fate, as well. It's the third consecutive cancellation of a Michigan game which finishes 2-4 while the Hawkeyes conclude the regular season at 6-2.

Michigan State at Maryland has been canceled for a second time. The two were originally slated to play on November 21 but that game was also canceled by covid issues in the Terrapins' program. Maryland has had 4 games canceled against three different opponents, and three of those cancellations were due to issues with Maryland. Michigan State had no other games canceled or postponed. The Spartans finish the first season under Mel Tucker with a 2-5 mark which was excatly what the computer projected. The Terrapins finish 2-3 after the computer projected a 1-4 campaign.

Florida State (3-6, 2-6) at Wake Forest (4-4, 3-4) was canceled and the Seminoles said they would opt out of a bowl game, if invited. The Demon Deacons await their fate. Both teams played just once after November 14.

The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have projected the winner and margin of each of the ten title tilts, plus the 9 other games on this week's slate.

Get all of this week's picks.

Most of the computer's picks are not surprising. For instance, Clemson is favored to avenge its regular season loss to Notre Dame, and Oklahoma is predicted to do the same vs. Iowa State. So is Louisiana at Coastal Carolina.

Ohio State and Cincinnati are big favorites over Northwestern and Tulsa, respectively.

Two of the biggest surprises come in the computer margin projections for Boise State over San Jose State at Las Vegas, and USC (at home) over Washington.

The top surprise was the extent of Louisiana 's favored status at Coastal Carolina which was 10.15 points, but as mentioned earlier, that game is now canceled.

Conversely, the Ball State underdog margin to Buffalo is lower than we would have anticipated.

Conference Championship Matchups

American: Tulsa (6-1, 6-0) at Cincinnati (8-0, 6-0)
Teams were scheduled to meet in regular season finale but that game was canceled due to Covid issues in Bearcats' program.
Computer pick: Cincinnati (-19.10)

ACC: Clemson (9-1, 8-1) vs. Notre Dame (10-0, 9-0) at Charlotte
Notre Dame won regular season meeting 47-40 in double-overtime on November 7.
Computer pick: Clemson (-4.87)

Big Ten: Northwestern (6-1, 6-1) vs. Ohio State (5-0, 5-0) at Indianapolis
Ohio State beat Northwestern 45-24 in the 2018 title game.
Computer pick: Ohio State (-16.29)

Big 12: Iowa State (8-2, 8-1) vs. Oklahoma (7-2, 6-2) at Arlington
Iowa State won regular season meeting 37-30 on October 3 in Ames.
Computer pick: Oklahoma (-10.95)

CUSA: UAB (5-3, 3-1) at Marshall (7-1, 4-1)
Host was determined by old BCS computer rankers on Sunday. FAU played its way out with a 54-31 loss at Southern Miss on Thursday. UAB played its way in with a 21-16 win at Rice on Saturday. Despite being in the same conference, UAB and Marshall haven't met since 2014 and the Herd lead the series 8-2.
Computer pick: Marshall (-5.14)

MAC: Buffalo (5-0, 5-0) vs. Ball State (5-1, 5-1) at Detroit
Ball State played its way in with a 30-27 home win over Western Michigan. The wild finish saw the Broncos score on a game-ending multi-lateral play, but it was nullified on review as replay showed one of the laterals was actually a forward pass. Buffalo's only MAC title was won in 2008 by defeating Ball State 45-24. Ball State is going for its fifth title, but first since 1998. Buffalo lost the 2018 title game to Northern Illinois 30-29 as NIU rallied from as many as 19 down and scored the game-winning points with 1:09 to play.
Computer pick: Buffalo (-7.30)

MOUNTAIN WEST: Boise State (5-1, 5-0) vs. San Jose State (6-0, 6-0) at Boise
San Jose State played its way in by rallying past Nevada for a 30-20 win on Friday after trailing 20-7 at the half. Boise will host due to a halt on sports in Santa Clara County, California. These teams were scheduled to meet in regular season on November 28 but that game was canceled due to Covid issues in Broncos' program.
Computer pick: Boise State (-16.36)

PAC-12: Oregon (3-2, 3-2) at USC (5-0, 5-0)
USC played its way in with a comeback 43-38 win over UCLA. Washington secured its spot when its game versus Oregon was canceled due to Covid issues in the Huskies' program. But in an ironic twist, Washington had to also back out of the championship game and Oregon was next in-line to take the spot. The Trojans were a 13.92-point computer favorite over Washington, but are only a 6.85-point choice over Oregon.
Computer pick: USC (-6.85)

SEC: Alabama (10-0, 10-0) vs. Florida (8-2, 8-2) at Atlanta
Florida basically wrecked its chances of a Final Four bid with a 37-34 loss to LSU. This will be the 10th time these teams have played for the title with Alabama winning 5 of the previous 9 and the Gators' last beating the Tide in the championship game in 2008.
Computer pick: Alabama (-8.21)

SUN BELT: Canceled - Coastal Carolina (11-0, 8-0) vs. Louisiana (9-1, 7-1) at Conway, SC -
Coastal Carolina won the regular season meeting 30-27 at Lafayette on October 14 and is 2-1 all-time vs. the Ragin' Cajuns, but 0-1 in Conway.
Computer pick: Louisiana (-10.15)

FCS vs. FBS

This past Saturday's scheduled final FBS-FCS matchup of Incarnate Word at Arkansas State was canceled and no other FBS-FCS games are remaining to be played.

A total of 30 FBS teams played a total of 34 games against FCS schools this season with the FBS going 33-1. Since we began tracking this in 2003, the FBS teams are 1,468-128 (.920).

Last year, FBS teams were 111-3 (.974) in such games.

Here is the only FCS win vs. the FBS this season:
October 23: Jacksonville State 19, FIU 10

These were the FCS wins vs. the FBS in the previous 2 seasons:

2019:
August 29: Central Arkansas 35, Western Kentucky 28
September 7: Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20
September 14: The Citadel 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT)

2020:
August 29: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

Streaks

NOTRE DAME - Won 16 straight over-all (FBS longest).
Last: Won 45-21 at home over Syracuse on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Regular season complete. Plays Clemson in Charlotte for ACC title on Saturday, December 19.

OHIO STATE - Won 20 straight conference games (FBS longest). Won 9 straight road games (FBS longest). Won 21 straight regular season games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 52-12 at Michigan State on Saturday, December 5.
Next: December 12 game vs. Michigan canceled. Plays Northwestern in Big Ten Championship game at Indianapolis on Saturday, December 19.

CLEMSON - Won 28 straight home games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 45-10 at Virginia Tech on Saturday, December 5.
Next: Regular season complete. Plays Notre Dame in Charlotte for ACC title on Saturday, December 19.

NEW MEXICO - Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest).
Last: Won 49-39 vs. Fresno State in Las Vegas (New Mexico's adopted home) on Saturday, December 12.
Next: Regular season complete.

AKRON - Lost 12 straight road games (FBS second-longest).
Last: Lost 56-7 at Buffalo on Saturday, December 12 at Buffalo.
Next: Regular season complete.

KANSAS - Lost 13 straight overall (FBS longest), 6 straight home games (tied with Rutgers for FBS longest).
Last: 16-13 loss at Texas Tech on Saturday, December 5.
Next: December 12 game vs. Texas canceled. No more games presently scheduled.

UTEP - Lost 15 straight conference games (FBS longest).
Last: Lost 45-43 at North Texas on Friday, December 11.
Next: Regular season complete.