Recap - Ohio State Saves Big Ten From Awful Weekend

September 16, 2018 by Dave Congrove

Ohio State rallied from a 21-13 deficit early in the third quarter and defeated TCU 40-28 in Arlington. The Buckeyes outscored the Horned Frogs 27-7 down the stretch, behind a defense which yielded 511 yards but forced 3 turnovers, 2 of which directly resulted in touchdowns.

It was the lone win for a Big Ten team over another Power 5 conference team.

Here is the carnage:
- Nebraska lost home to Troy (Sun Belt), 24-19
- Northwestern lost at home to Akron (MAC), 39-34
- Maryland lost at home to Temple (American), 35-14
- Illinois lost in Chicago to USF (American), 25-19
- Wisconsin lost at home to BYU (Independent), 34-31
- Purdue lost at home to Missouri (SEC), 40-37
- Rutgers lost on the road at Kansas (Big 12), 55-14.

Besides Ohio State, the conference's winners on Saturday were:
- Minnesota over Miami, Ohio (MAC), 26-3
- Indiana over Ball State (MAC), 38-10
- Penn State over Kent State (MAC), 63-10
- Michigan over SMU (American), 45-20
- Iowa over Northern Iowa (FCS), 38-14.

That's a record of 1-2 against the Power 5 Conference schools, 0-1 vs. Independents, a mark of 4-4 vs. Group of Five conference schools, and 1-0 vs. the FCS.

Perhaps it's enough said that the American Conference was 2-1 vs. the Big Ten, and the Sun Belt was 1-0.

Good thing Michigan State was idle.

PAC-12 Wasn't That Much Better

The PAC-12 had its' share of ugly results this weekend, too, as USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, and UCLA all lost. The latter three turned in their losing performances against Mountain West Conference schools.

USC went to Texas and got roped, 37-14. The Trojans led 14-3 at the end of the first, but were outscored 34-0 the rest of the way.

A week after beating Michigan State at home, Arizona State went to San Diego State and lost 28-21.

Fresno State controlled nearly 40 minutes of the clock in a 38-14 destruction of UCLA at Rose Bowl Stadium.

Oregon State fell short in its comeback bid, 37-35 at Nevada.

Other than Washington's win at conference rival Utah, and Oregon's lackluster 35-22 victory over San Jose State, no PAC-12 team played and defeated another FBS team. Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Stanford and Washington State all faced FCS teams.

The conference was 1-3 vs. the MWC, 0-1 vs. The Big 12, 1-1 vs. itself, and 5-0 vs. the FCS.

Hurricane Subtracts from Schedule

Six games were stricken from the slate by incoming Hurricane Florence. Southern Miss at Appalachian State, East Carolina at Virginia Tech, Marshall at South Carolina, West Virginia at N.C. State, UCF at North Carolina, and Norfolk State at Liberty. The game between Ohio and Virginia was moved from Charlottesville to Nashville.

Upset Picks Have First Losing Week Out Of the Last 10

For the first time since early November of the 2017 season, the Congrove Computer Rankings' outright upset picks had a week that fell below the .500 marks. The computer projected 8 outright upsets, but went 3-6 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. 

It was correct on its picks of Duke over Baylor, UAB over Tulane and Syracuse over Florida State. It missed on picks of USC over Texas, Tulsa over Arkansas State, UCLA over Fresno State, Rutgers over Kansas, Illinois over South Florida (correct ATS), and New Mexico State over New Mexico.

Picking the Syracuse game correctly gives the computer three wins in the last two weeks for underdog teams that were on very long losing streaks against their opponent. The Orange hadn't beaten Florida State since 1966. Last week, the computer nailed the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak, and Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida.

The computer's upset picks are a cumulative 30-15 SU (.667) and 33-12 ATS (.733) over the last 10 weekends (bowl season counts as 1 week).

Worth Noting

Oklahoma State shook off Boise State with relative ease in a 44-21 win in Stillwater. An upset win would have boosted Boise State into the conversation of 'legitimate' playoff contenders.

Alabama went to Oxford and destroyed an Ole Miss team that could only play for pride, thanks to NCAA probation. It's doubtful the Rebels are feeling very prideful after the 62-7 can that was opened up on them by the Tide.

Oklahoma, the computer's No. 1 team, went to Iowa State and earned a measure of payback with a 37-27 win. The Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 in Norman a year ago for Iowa State's first win in the series since 1990. The Sooners have an FBS-best 17-game road winning streak.

Notre Dame survived Vanderbilt's comeback effort with a 22-17 win in South Bend, but a second straight unimpressive victory may not help the Irish in the polls. Last week, Notre Dame scraped past Ball State 24-16.

LSU upset Auburn 22-21 on a 42-yard field goal as time expired. The Bayou Bengals scored the last 12 points of the game to rally from a 21-10 deficit.

BYU's 34-31 upset win in Wisconsin wasn't sealed until the Badgers missed a 42-yard field goal on the final play.

Wyoming's touchdown with 17 seconds left avoided the upset to FCS member Wofford. The Cowboys won 20-17.

FBS vs. FCS

As it stands right now, 106 FBS teams will play 109 games versus FCS schools this season. Army, Florida and Liberty will each play two. There were 108 such games scheduled sat the start of the year, but Iowa State's game versus South Dakota State got washed out on Labor Day weekend, and Liberty's game versus Norfolk State was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.

The schedule could conceivably climb back to 108 such matchups. Iowa State has conditionally scheduled Incarnate Word on December 1, which is also the date that Liberty and Norfolk State have scheduled their makeup game.

FBS schools went 17-0 vs. the FCS this week and are 83-6 in such games for the 2018 season. Since 2003, the FBS is now 1,302-123 (.914).

Here are all of the FCS victories over FBS teams this season:

August 30: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28

Streaks

UCF - Won 15 straight overall (FBS longest), Won 10 straight conference games including AAC title last year (FBS longest). Game at North Caroilna on Saturday was canceled due to Hurricane Florence.

FAU - Won 9 straight conference games (FBS second-longest). Won 49-24 vs. Bethune-Cookman on Saturday.

Alabama - Won 20 straight home games (FBS longest). Won 62-7 at Ole Miss on Saturday.

Oklahoma - Won 17 straight road games (FBS longest). Won 37-27 at Iowa State on Saturday.

UTEP - Lost 15 straight overall (FBS longest). Lost 24-0 at Tennessee on Saturday.

Ball State - Lost 13 straight conference games (FBS longest). Lost 38-10 at Indiana on Saturday.

Oregon State - Lost 21 straight road games (FBS longest). Lost 37-35 at Nevada on Saturday.