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Back in 2007, the college football world was left stunned as Appalachian State recorded a 34-32 win over high-flying Michigan. It was a huge upset, surprising just about everyone. In fact, 2007 was a vintage year for surprise results, including Navy breaking a 43-game losing streak over Notre Dame and Stanford doing something similar in a narrow win over USC.
Few fans predicted these results, and, as you might expect, the sportsbooks also got it wrong with the odds for each game. But could a supercomputer or AI have predicted the shocks? After all, using these systems has become very fashionable among sports bettors today. Indeed, some argue that bettors using AI and algorithms is the future of the sector.
However, to give a short answer to the question posed above: We can say that, no, an AI would probably not have predicted those results in 2007. Artificial intelligence can be useful in sports betting – and it certainly will play a big role in the sector – but you should not confuse “usefulness” with clairvoyance or omnipotence.
People have been talking about using supercomputers for sports bettingstrategies and predictions for years now, but the issue has become fashionable due to the explosion of AI tools, most notably ChatGPT. Now, first, a note of caution: the popularity of ChatGPT will mean there are lots of scam social media accounts and websites offering foolproof AI sports betting picks, sometimes for the price of a subscription. We would advise you to be very wary of this kind of association, some of which falsely use the ChatGPT brand. These mainstream AI tools are still very experimental, and none yet offer foolproof betting systems, even if that were possible.
Anyway, let’s get back to the main point of the debate. Yes, AI, including ChatGPT, can be used for betting on college football. AI tools can analyze vast sets of data much better than we humans can. Mostly, this comes into the realm of structured data. So, for example, it can quickly make an assessment on the track record of Penn State playing at home, factoring in player performances in the rain, how the quarterback when his team concedes a touchdown, and just about every quantifiable statistic imaginable.
But there is a limit to what supercomputers can do. In fact, we might argue that the biggest difference is that they can’t reason. They can make an assessment based on the available data, but they cannot reason as a human might, and that counts for a lot in sports betting. Sometimes, you can see what is not apparent in the statistics, and you make your wagers accordingly. Of course, it might not always go right, but you feel satisfied when you realize your contrarian position was the correct one.
We should also remember this salient fact: Football betting is not always about getting the correct result. By that, we mean it can be misleading to read statistics that claim AI predicts 80% of game results correctly. Anyone can look at the weekly schedule and pick a bunch of winners. The key to betting is securing value. That means beating the spread and creating parlay picks. Obviously, the more unlikely the outcome, the greater the odds.
In the end, we predict the future of betting to be a balance between technology and human intuition. Sportsbooks use algorithms to set odds, so they are not going to be caught out by everyone using AI to beat the system. As we said, betting success is about seeing value in the odds where others don’t, and that includes supercomputers. Use stats and systems by all means, but use your common sense and intuition too.