Projected 2023 FBS Standings, Final Four, Champion

August 17, 2023 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Four schools from four different conference are projected by "the computer" to make up this year's Final Four in the College Football Playoff, and two of those teams would be making their first-ever appearance in the playoff.

"The computer" is the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. The website celebrates 25 years this season while the rankings themselves enter their 31 season.

Projected Final Four

Michigan, USC, Florida State, and Tennessee are the projected top 4 at the end of the regular season..

The Wolverines have made the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, bowing out both times with a loss in the semis. Michigan hasn't claimed a national championship since 1997, which the AP Poll put the Wolverines at No.1 while the Coaches' Poll gave the nod to Nebraska. That was the last season that the polls held the sole determination as the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) began the following year.

Tennessee and USC have never made the playoffs.

The Vols haven't competed for the national title since winning that inaugural BCS Championship game in 1998 over Florida State. It came a year after Peyton Manning was off to the NFL and Tee Martin was the QB. The Vols are only fourth on the list of SEC Champion favorites this year.

USC last competed for the national championship in the BCS days when the Trojans fell to Texas in the epic game that concluded the 2005 season. USC had won the BCS title the previous year by romping over Oklahoma. And the Trojans won a split title the year before that when the AP declared independence from the BCS Rankings and a majority voted for USC instead of LSU after USC had beaten Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines conceivably would have been voted champion by the AP had they won the game. LSU had defeated Oklahoma in the BCS title game in the Sugar Bowl.

Florida State made the playoff in the first year of its existence in 2014, but was crushed by Oregon. This came a season after the 'Noles had claimed the last title of the BCS era by edging Auburn in Pasadena.

Who's Missing?

No Georgia. No Alabama. No Clemson. No worries. Those teams only represent 7 of the last 8 national champions. The 'Dawgs and Tide are the top two betting favorites to win the championship this year The computer has them missing the playoffs, but not by much.

Georgia is out because Tennessee gets to host the 'Dawgs in the next-to-last week of the regular season and the Vols are 2.15-point computer favorites in that contest.

Alabama is out because the computer has the Tide falling to Tennessee twice.

Clemson is out because the computer has the Tigers as underdogs twice to Florida State.

Could There Be An Undefeated Champion?

One of the top questions asked every season is, "Will Any College Football Teams Go Undefeated in 2023?" We have had four undefeated national champions since the FBS College Football Playoff era began in 2014. All of those have come in the last five seasons with Georgia accomplishing that feat last year to match Alabama (2020), LSU (2019) and Clemson (2018)

The computer's top four are all projected to make it through the regular season unscathed. And, with all four schools hailing from four separate conferences, there is a mathematical chance that it could happen.  However, Michigan is the only team whose projected conference championship tussle is NOT a rematch of a regular season game.

Southern Cal hosts Washington on November 4 as 4.30-point favorite, Florida State goes to Clemson on September 23 as a 1.89-point pick, and Tennessee goes to Alabama as a scant 0.86-point choice on October 21

In the conference championship rematches, the computer has USC as just a 1.55-point pick over Washington, Florida State by 5.22 over Clemson, and Tennessee gets past Alabama as a 3.95-point choice.

Michigan is a decisive 19.19-point play over Wisconsin.

FBS Playoff Final 4

Semifinals

(1) Michigan by 5.57 over (4) Tennessee
(2) USC by 0.18 over (3) Florida State

Championship
Michigan by 5.36 over USC

Alternate Possibilities

The computer's projected Final Four could be blown up by having the usual suspects - Alabama, Georgia, Clemson - all pile back in.

It certainly isn't a reach to have Ohio State knock off Michigan, Clemson beat Florida State, Georgia beat Tennessee, and Alabama beat Georgia.

The PAC-12 is loaded in the year before it gets eviscerated by realignment. Washington, Oregon and Utah can all challenge the Trojans.

Texas looks like it could make a run at a perfect season in its final year in the Big 12. The computer does not see Oklahoma as a major threat, but no one would be surprised if the Sooners bounced back to the top. Texas Tech is a legitimate dark horse.

Penn State will pose a threat to the Buckeyes and Wolverines. Michigan has to visit the Nittany Lions two weeks before hosting Ohio State.

Notre Dame is only projected to go 9-3, but the expected losses are all by less than 5 points and two of those games are at home as the Irish host Ohio State (3.39) and USC (4.08). The other predicted setback is a 4.98-point disadvantage at Clemson.

Conclusion

Most of the playoff era has proven to be rather uneventful. 2023 could play out much differently. If it doesn't, there's always next year when we are guaranteed to have more excitement as the playoff expands to 12 teams.

Projected Conference Standings

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 3 Florida State ACC 95.98 95.98 12 0 8 0 36
2 10 Clemson ACC 91.09 83.5 11 1 7 1 13
3 11 North Carolina ACC 89.38 81.93 11 1 7 1 40
4 37 Duke ACC 84.48 56.32 8 4 5 3 38
5 41 Pittsburgh ACC 78.47 52.31 8 4 5 3 31
6 55 North Carolina State ACC 76.33 44.53 7 5 4 4 51
7 53 Miami (FLA) ACC 77.55 45.24 7 5 4 4 55
8 42 Syracuse ACC 77.54 51.69 8 4 4 4 61
9 67 Louisville ACC 75.14 37.57 6 6 4 4 63
10 66 Wake Forest ACC 75.19 37.6 6 6 3 5 33
10 77 Boston College ACC 66.42 33.21 6 6 3 5 66
12 113 Virginia Tech ACC 65.15 10.86 2 10 1 7 58
13 115 Virginia ACC 60.6 10.1 2 10 1 7 30
14 114 Georgia Tech ACC 61.8 10.3 2 10 0 8 26
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 7-1. Clemson beats North Carolina
2 Teams tied at 5-3. Duke beats Pitt
4 Teams tied at 4-4
- NC State 2-0 vs. other 3. Beats Miami and Louisville
- Miami 1-1 vs. other 3. Loses at NC State, beats Louisville
- Syracuse 0-0 vs. other 3
- Louisville 0-2 vs. other 3. Loses at NC State and Miami
2 Teams tied at 3-5. Teams do not play each other
2 Teams tied at 1-7. Virginia Tech beats Virginia
CHAMPION: Florida State

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 13 UTSA American 85.25 78.15 11 1 8 0 73
1 32 Southern Methodist American 71.26 59.38 10 2 8 0 117
3 24 Tulane American 81.51 67.93 10 2 7 1 71
4 50 Florida Atlantic American 70 46.67 8 4 6 2 83
4 71 Navy American 62.95 36.72 7 5 6 2 106
6 70 North Texas American 63.66 37.14 7 5 4 4 99
7 87 Temple American 58.32 29.16 6 6 4 4 108
8 82 Memphis American 61.2 30.6 6 6 4 4 107
9 79 East Carolina American 65.53 32.77 6 6 3 5 69
10 98 Rice American 61.79 20.6 4 8 3 5 75
11 109 Ala.-Birmingham American 54.31 13.58 3 9 1 7 74
12 118 Tulsa American 53.37 8.9 2 10 1 7 84
13 121 South Florida American 49.29 8.22 2 10 1 7 91
14 130 Charlotte American 41.2 3.43 1 11 0 8 100
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 8-0. Teams do not face each other and are co-champs
- UTSA hosts and wins conference title game
2 Teams tied at 6-2. FAU and Navy do not play each other
3 Teams tied at 4-4
- North Texas 2-0 vs. other 3
- Temple 1-1 vs. other 3. Beats Memphis, loses to North Texas
- Memphis 0-2 vs. other 3.
2 Teams tied at 3-5. ECU beats Rice
3 Teams tied at 1-7
- UAB 1-0 vs. other 3. Beats USF
- Tulsa 0-0 vs. other 3
- USF 0-1 vs. other 3. Loses to UAB
CO-CHAMPIONS: UTSA, SMU

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 1 Michigan Big 10-E 103.47 103.47 12 0 9 0 54
2 6 Ohio State Big 10-E 95.5 87.54 11 1 8 1 16
3 16 Penn State Big 10-E 92.88 77.4 10 2 7 2 60
4 45 Maryland Big 10-E 74.25 49.5 8 4 5 4 67
5 73 Michigan State Big 10-E 72.55 36.28 6 6 4 5 5
6 89 Rutgers Big 10-E 65.73 27.39 5 7 2 7 52
7 117 Indiana Big 10-E 55.83 9.31 2 10 0 9 23
 
1 22 Wisconsin Big 10-W 83.18 69.32 10 2 7 2 65
2 21 Iowa Big 10-W 83.73 69.78 10 2 7 2 62
3 36 Minnesota Big 10-W 86.53 57.69 8 4 6 3 19
4 65 Illinois Big 10-W 76.56 38.28 6 6 4 5 37
5 84 Purdue Big 10-W 72.46 30.19 5 7 3 6 17
6 97 Nebraska Big 10-W 62.82 20.94 4 8 1 8 56
7 125 Northwestern Big 10-W 52.28 4.36 1 11 0 9 44
TIE-BREAKER:
2 Teams tied at 7-2. Wisconsin beats Iowa
CHAMPION: Michigan

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 9 Texas Big 12 91.68 84.04 11 1 9 0 4
2 12 Texas Tech Big 12 89.18 81.75 11 1 8 1 7
3 19 Kansas State Big 12 87.8 73.17 10 2 7 2 9
4 27 Central Florida Big 12 84.67 63.5 9 3 7 2 50
5 33 Brigham Young Big 12 78.76 59.07 9 3 6 3 48
6 54 Houston Big 12 77.37 45.13 7 5 5 4 11
7 39 Kansas Big 12 79.63 53.09 8 4 5 4 27
7 40 Texas Christian Big 12 79.11 52.74 8 4 5 4 45
9 81 Oklahoma State Big 12 74.94 31.23 5 7 3 6 39
10 69 Oklahoma Big 12 74.71 37.36 6 6 3 6 49
11 83 Baylor Big 12 73.33 30.55 5 7 3 6 32
12 104 West Virginia Big 12 71.97 17.99 3 9 3 6 18
13 106 Cincinnati Big 12 67.68 16.92 3 9 1 8 41
14 112 Iowa State Big 12 70.22 11.7 2 10 0 9 21
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 7-2. Kansas State beats UCF
3 Teams tied at 5-4
- Houston 1-0 vs. other 2. Beats TCU. Does not play Kansas
- Kansas 0-0 vs. other 2
- TCU 0-1 vs. other 2. Loses at Houston. Does not play Kansas
4 Teams tied at 3-6
- Oklahoma State 1-1 vs. other 3. Beats Oklahoma. Loses to WVU
- Oklahoma 1-1 vs. other 3. Loses to Oklahoma State. Beats WVU
- Baylor 1-0 vs. other 3. Beats WVU
- WVU 1-2 vs. other 3. Beats Oklahoma State. Loses to Baylor & Oklahoma
CHAMPION: Texas

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 46 Middle Tennessee CUSA 64.57 48.43 9 3 7 1 116
2 47 Jacksonville State CUSA 63.53 47.65 9 3 7 1 126
3 56 Texas-El Paso CUSA 59.03 44.27 9 3 6 2 132
4 58 Western Kentucky CUSA 61.93 41.29 8 4 6 2 124
5 74 New Mexico State CUSA 56.15 34.55 8 5 4 4 133
6 96 Liberty CUSA 51.83 21.6 5 7 3 5 131
7 110 Sam Houston CUSA 54.1 13.53 3 9 2 6 112
8 124 Louisiana Tech CUSA 46.44 7.74 2 10 1 7 122
9 128 Florida International CUSA 46.35 3.86 1 11 0 8 123
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 7-1. MTSU beats Jacksonville State
2 Teams tied at 6-2. UTEP beats Western Kentucky
CHAMPION: Middle Tennessee

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 25 Notre Dame Ind. 89.11 66.83 9 3     42
2 49 Army Ind. 70.13 46.75 8 4     79
3 64 Connecticut Ind. 66.29 38.67 7 5     93
4 111 Massachusetts Ind. 50.42 12.61 3 9     95

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 43 Ohio MAC-E 67.12 50.34 9 3 8 0 129
2 57 Miami (O) MAC-E 64.59 43.06 8 4 6 2 128
3 72 Bowling Green MAC-E 62.71 36.58 7 5 5 3 113
4 94 Buffalo MAC-E 56.91 23.71 5 7 3 5 119
5 119 Akron MAC-E 51.38 8.56 2 10 1 7 121
6 131 Kent State MAC-E 40.3 3.36 1 11 0 8 103
 
1 26 Toledo MAC-W 71.69 65.72 11 1 8 0 120
2 60 Eastern Michigan MAC-W 60.72 40.48 8 4 6 2 130
3 92 Central Michigan MAC-W 59.08 24.62 5 7 4 4 82
4 88 Northern Illinois MAC-W 56.05 28.03 6 6 4 4 127
5 93 Ball State MAC-W 57.57 23.99 5 7 3 5 94
6 126 Western Michigan MAC-W 51.13 4.26 1 11 0 8 77
TIE-BREAKER:
2 Teams tied at 4-4. Central Michigan beats NIU
CHAMPION: Toledo

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 15 Boise State MWC 84.69 77.63 11 1 8 0 72
2 23 Air Force MWC 74.25 68.06 11 1 7 1 110
3 52 Wyoming MWC 68.33 45.55 8 4 6 2 86
3 59 San Jose State MWC 69.9 40.78 7 5 6 2 76
5 62 San Diego State MWC 67.64 39.46 7 5 5 3 78
6 61 Fresno State MWC 68.36 39.88 7 5 4 4 118
7 103 Utah State MWC 54.44 18.15 4 8 3 5 81
8 95 Nevada MWC 53.53 22.3 5 7 3 5 102
9 105 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 53.66 17.89 4 8 3 5 85
10 107 Hawaii MWC 52.26 16.08 4 9 2 6 105
11 108 Colorado State MWC 54.41 13.6 3 9 1 7 109
12 129 New Mexico MWC 43.49 3.62 1 11 0 8 98
TIE-BREAKERS:
2 Teams tied at 6-2. Wyoming and SJSU do not play each other
3 Teams tied at 3-5
- Utah State 1-0 vs. other 3. Beats Nevada. Does not play UNLV
- Nevada 1-1 vs. other 3. Beats UNLV, Loses at Utah State
- UNLV 0-1 vs. other 3. Loses at Nevada. Does not play Utah State
CHAMPION: Boise State

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 2 Southern California PAC 12 96.19 96.19 12 0 9 0 53
2 7 Washington PAC 12 94.89 86.98 11 1 8 1 43
3 14 Utah PAC 12 93.26 77.72 10 2 7 2 35
4 31 Oregon PAC 12 90.26 60.17 8 4 6 3 64
5 30 Oregon State PAC 12 83.67 62.75 9 3 6 3 59
6 28 UCLA PAC 12 84.3 63.23 9 3 6 3 70
7 75 Washington State PAC 12 67.01 33.51 6 6 4 5 68
8 85 California PAC 12 71.31 29.71 5 7 3 6 22
8 90 Arizona PAC 12 63.25 26.35 5 7 3 6 57
10 116 Arizona State PAC 12 56.23 9.37 2 10 1 8 29
11 127 Colorado PAC 12 48.18 4.02 1 11 1 8 46
12 132 Stanford PAC 12 46.7 0 0 12 0 9 28
TIE-BREAKERS:
3 Teams tied at 6-3
- Oregon 1-0 vs. other 2. Beats Oregon State. Does not play UCLA
- Oregon State 1-1 vs. other 2. Loses to Oregon. Beats UCLA
- UCLA 0-1 vs. other 2. Loses at Oregon State. Does not play Oregon
2 Teams tied at 3-6. Cal and Arizona do not play each other
2 Teams tied at 1-8. Arizona beats Colorado
CHAMPION: USC

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 4 Tennessee SEC-E 95.97 95.97 12 0 8 0 8
2 5 Georgia SEC-E 96.82 88.75 11 1 7 1 47
3 29 Kentucky SEC-E 84.09 63.07 9 3 5 3 20
4 48 Missouri SEC-E 80.88 47.18 7 5 4 4 6
5 80 South Carolina SEC-E 78.4 32.67 5 7 3 5 1
6 91 Florida SEC-E 75.41 25.14 4 8 2 6 2
7 102 Vanderbilt SEC-E 73.07 18.27 3 9 0 8 25
 
1 8 Alabama SEC-W 92.11 84.43 11 1 7 1 3
2 18 Mississippi SEC-W 90.5 75.42 10 2 6 2 10
3 20 Louisiana State SEC-W 93.18 69.89 9 3 6 2 12
4 35 Texas A & M SEC-W 86.55 57.7 8 4 4 4 24
5 51 Auburn SEC-W 79.72 46.5 7 5 3 5 15
6 76 Mississippi State SEC-W 80.27 33.45 5 7 1 7 14
7 101 Arkansas SEC-W 74.19 18.55 3 9 0 8 34
TIE-BREAKER:
2 Teams tied at 6-2. Ole Miss beats LSU
CHAMPION: Tennessee

 

CONF
RANK
NAT'L
RANK
TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 44 Coastal Carolina Sun-E 66.41 49.81 9 3 7 1 115
2 34 James Madison Sun-E 70.12 58.43 10 2 6 2 111
3 68 Marshall Sun-E 64.3 37.51 7 5 5 3 101
4 86 Georgia Southern Sun-E 58.93 29.47 6 6 4 4 125
5 99 Appalachian State Sun-E 60.7 20.23 4 8 3 5 90
6 100 Georgia State Sun-E 58.34 19.45 4 8 2 6 97
7 133 Old Dominion Sun-E 42.84 0 0 12 0 8 96
 
1 17 South Alabama Sun-W 83.81 76.83 11 1 8 0 92
2 38 Troy Sun-W 72.51 54.38 9 3 7 1 89
3 63 Southern Mississippi Sun-W 67.36 39.29 7 5 6 2 88
4 78 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun-W 56.89 33.19 7 5 5 3 114
5 120 Arkansas State Sun-W 49.42 8.24 2 10 1 7 104
5 122 Louisiana-Monroe Sun-W 49.13 8.19 2 10 1 7 80
5 123 Texas State Sun-W 47.97 8 2 10 1 7 87
TIE-BREAKER:
3 Teams tied at 1-7.
- Arkansas State 1-1 vs. other 2. Loses at ULM, Beats Texas State
- ULM 1-1 vs. other 2. Beats Arkansas State. Loses to Texas State
- Texas State 1-1 vs. other 2. Loses to Arkansas State. Beats ULM
CHAMPION: South Alabama