Preview: Houston at Baylor

September 18, 2020 by Staff

NOTE: Baylor announced on Friday it would have to cancel this game due to Covid-19 tracing issues. But, hey, it's a really good preview if you still want to read it.

Houston was supposed to be playing at Memphis this week, but the Tigers had to cancel due to Covid. So the Cougars quickly pivoted and found nearby Baylor was ready, willing and able to host this game in Waco on Saturday and reunite the former Southwest Conference foes who haven't met on the gridiron since 1995.

Baylor has a slight edge in the series with a record of 14-13-1.

Houston is in its second year under former West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen. He's no stranger to Texas football, or Houston, in particular. Holgorsen spent 8 years on the other side of the state, in Lubbock, working as an assistant under offense guru Mike Leach. He took his talents as offensive coordinator to Houston for the 2008-2009 season where QB Case Keenum led the nation in total offense. Then, it was on to Oklahoma State for a season in 2010 where he got to work with QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackman, and RB Kendall Hunter.

Holgorsen drew some heat last year after a 1-3 start led him to controversially redshirting QB D'Eriq King and WR Keith Corbin. King ultimately transferred to  Miami, but Corbin returns.

Clayton Tune replaced King at QB and registered less-than-stellar numbers with 11 TD's and 9 INT's while completing 59% of his throws for 1,533 yards. Compare that to King, who in his last full season in Houston in 2018, threw 36 TD passes against just 6 INTs and completed 63.5% of his passes.

Holgorsen objected when fans and sports analysts said he was 'tanking' the season' and, perhaps, that terminology was too harsh. But it was clear that he wanted to save his talent for better things to come 'next year'.

The pundits and prognosticators say those 'better things' aren't expected to pan-out. The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have Houston projected to go 5-5 overall and just 3-4 in the American Athletic Conference. All the preseason projections from major publications and websites put Houston in the middle-of-the-pack of the conference which is no longer split into divisions.

Meanwhile, Baylor is under first-year head coach Dave Aranda, the former defensive coordinator of the reigning national champion LSU Tigers. He is the school's third different head coach since the start of the 2016 season. Aranda replaces Matt Rhule who was hired by the NFL's Carolina Panthers.

The computer projects the Bears to finish in the middle of the Big 12 with a 6-4 overall record and a 5-4 conference mark, but Aranda inherits just 2 defensive starters to compliment a solid offense led by QB Charlie Brewer, experienced RB's John Lovett, Gerry Bohanon and Trestan Ebner, and WR's Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed.

Baylor's 9 returning starters overall is the fewest among all FBS programs.

With 30 career starts, Brewer enters the season with 7,742-career passing yards which ranks as 3rd-best in BU history. He's the younger brother of former Virginia Tech standout QB Michael Brewer.

Last season, Baylor became the first Power 5 program to win 11 games within two seasons of losing 11 games. The Bears finished 2019 with an 11-3 season that culminated with appearances in the Big 12 Championship game and Sugar Bowl.

Consensus Odds: Baylor (-4) after opening at -7
Congrove Computer Rankings: Baylor (-15.95)
Matchup