Possible upsets in Thursday's South region first round of NCAA Men's Basketball Tourney

March 18, 2025 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Last year, the Auburn Tigers were a 4-seed and fell 78-76 in the first round to 13-seed Yale. This year, Auburn is back to avenge that defeat and will start play on Thursday at 2:50 p.m. on CBS as the over-all No. 1 seed. First up for the Tigers will be the 16-seed play-in winner of tonight's opening First Four game in Dayton, Ohio between Alabama State (19-15) and St. Francis, Pa. (16-17).

The First Four doubleheader is exclusively on TruTV beginning with a 6:40 p.m. eastern time tip-off , with the second game featuring San Diego State (21-9) taking on North Carolina (22-13).

The setup for Auburn recalls nearly the same situation that occurred just six years ago when Virginia beat Texas Tech, 85-77 in overtime to capture the 2019 championship. The previous year, Virginia had become the first 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed when the University of Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) blasted the Cavaliers 74-54. The Cavs returned in 2019 as the over-all 2-seed and the 1-seed in the South region.

Who was Tech Tech's victim in the semifinals in 2019? That would be Auburn. Michigan State was UVa's victim in the other semifinal game.

The likelihood of Auburn being upset by either Alabama State or St. Francis is highly unlikely, but the Tigers aren't exactly entering the big dance with confidence after dropping three of their last four games.

However, the 8 vs. 9 game, which will produce the winner to face Auburn in the second round, could easily swing in favor of 9-seed Creighton (24-10) over Louisville (27-7) which enters out of a weak ACC.

Creighton made it to the Big East Championship where St. John's ended the Bluejays' four-game winning streak with a 82-66 statement victory. Creighton led 28-25 at the half, but the Red Storm put up 57 points in the second half.

Louisville fell 73-62 to Duke in the ACC Championship after the Cardinals entered that tournament as the 2-seed while the Blue Devils were the 1-seed. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite over the Bluejays.

Two NCAA men's first round upset plays can potentially happen in the same bracket where 5-seed Michigan has to face 12-seed UC-San Diego and 4-seed Texas A&M draws a 13-seed Yale team that will obviously not feel like it doesn't belong.

Michigan vs UC-San Diego

The Wolverines are 25-9 as they used the Big Ten tournament to right the ship after a season-ending 3-game losing streak cost them the regular season title. Michigan answered with 3 straight wins, including a 59-53 ouster of Wisconsin in the conference championship game. The Wolverines were the 3-seed in that game and the Badgers were the 5-seed. the 1-seed, Michigan State, fell to Wisconsin in the semifinals while Michigan took out the 2-seed Terps.

Michigan's opponent, the UC-San Diego Tritons, are 30-4 after capturing the Big West Championship as the 1-seed over the 2-seed Anteaters of UC-Irvine.

Texas A&M vs. Yale

Texas A&M is 22-10 after a heartbreaking and aggravating 94-89 double-overtime loss to rival Texas in the second round of the SEC tournament. The Aggies were the 5-seed and the Longhorns were the 13-seed. Head coach Buzz Williams hasn't gotten Texas A&M past the round of 32 in his six seasons in College Station. In his career, he had one Elite 8 appearance with Marquette in 2012-2013. He also had a pair of Sweet 16 teams at Marquette, and his only other team to go that far was his final Virginia Tech team in 2018-2019, after which Buzz went to A&M.

This year's Aggies team was ranked a high as No. 7 before a four-game losing streak from February 18 to March 1 included lopsided to defeats of 70-54 at Mississippi State and 89-70 at Florida with College GameDay in Gainesville.

Yale was 13-1 in the Ivy League, four games ahead of the second-place Cornell team that the Bulldogs defeated in for the conference tournament title. The only conference loss came at Harvard in the penultimate regular season game. Over-all, Yale is 22-7, but the loss to the Crimson is the only setback since the calendar flipped to 2025 and they enter the NCAA tourney with victories in 16 of their last 17 games.