Packers Host Saints Tonight on MNF

December 23, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

A 70% chance of snow showers in the afternoon with highs in the low 30's, before clearing with temps dropping to 22 tonight. That's the forecast for Green Bay where the Packers will host New Orleans tonight.

The weather forecast alone should greatly favor Green Bay against a team that plays its home game indoors in the south and is in a (mostly) warm weather division with Tampa Bay, Atlanta (also indoors) and Carolina.

The prospects of locking down the No. 2 wild card berth in the playoffs provides plenty of incentive for the Pack to get the job done, but the question is whether or not the 14.5-point spread for the Packers to win is too much. The computer (NFL Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com) has the margin well under that spread at 8.24 points, but it can't take the weather into consideration. How much of a difference does that add?

If you're above average in your wagering habits, you might want to look toward some player prop bets instead.

Josh Jacobs at o/u 93.5 rushing yards seems reasonable, given the Saints are 30th in adjusted rushing defense. Jacobs comes ino the game with the NFL's 7th-best total of 1,147 yards, and his 12 touchdowns is tied for 3rd-best with the ridiculously strong Detroit tandem of David Montgomery Jahmyr Gibbs.

On the other side, the Saints will be without the services of their top running back Alvin Kamara (950 yards, 6 TD's) who suffered a groin injury in last week's 20-19 loss to Seattle, and QB David Carr is still out with a hand injury. Kendre Miller is expected to get the start in place of Kamara and rookie QB Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) will make his 4th start.

In Rattler's last outing, he came off the bench against Seattle and rallied the tam to the precipice of victory until head coach Darren Rizzi opted to go for two after pulling to within a point at 20-19 and the pass attempt failed. But Rattler had taken an offense that produced 0 points and 2 first downs in the first half, and guided it to four scoring possessions.

The Packers have won 10 of their last 12 home Monday night contests at historic Lambeau Field which is one of the few NFL venues that combines college-like enthusiastic crowds with professional football. Though, in recent years, several more teams have seen their crowd support turn it up a notch.

Green Bay QB Jordan Love has some rather pedestrian numbers for an NFL starting QB with 2,953 yards (below middle of the pack), a completion rate of 63.7% and a TD-INT ratio of 23-11. Only 6 QB's have thrown more picks and half of those were benched this past weekend.

There were a number of years when a Green Bay-New Orleans matchup was anticipated with excitement of a game that would be high scoring an exciting, but tonight's over/under has rather low bar of 42.5 points.

The Packers enter with an over-all record of 10-4, but a mark of just 5-4 in the conference and 1-3 in their own NFC North division. Sitting right behind the Pack in the playoff chase are the Washington Commanders (10-5) who would love to see an upset.

New Orleans is, of course, eliminated from the playoffs with records of 5-9 over-all, 4-6 in the NFC and 2-3 in their division.

Stranger things seems to happen nearly every week in the NFL this season. So often, in fact, it might be a good idea to just go under the spread. Especially in light of the fact that just yesterday, the 14.5-point favorite Bills (16.49-point computer pick) only managed a 24-21 win over the Patriots.

The Packers are No. 6 in the NFL Congrove Computer Rankings while New Orleans is No. 23 .