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Nine teams are 0-2 heading into week 3 of the NFL season. Six are in the AFC and just three are in the NFC. Since 2020, there have been just 2 of 32 teams that started 0-2 and made the playoffs and both are in the AFC - the Houston Texans last year and Cincinnati in 2022. No NFC team in that same time period has managed to accomplish that feat.
We use those years because 2020 is when the playoff expanded to 14 teams, taking the four division winners and 3 wild card teams from each conference. The team with the worst record among the four division winners has to play the team with the best record among the wild card qualifiers, while the other three get a free pass to the divisional round.
In 2022, the Bengals wound up 12-4 and won the AFC North to take the 3 seed in the playoffs. From there, they knocked out the 6-seed Ravens and the 2-seed Bills before falling to the 1-seed Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, 23-20, in Kansas City. The Chiefs beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.
Last year's Texans rebounded to become the 4-seed as AFC South champions with a 10-7 record as the Jacksonville Jaguars collapsed down the stretch. Houston would go on to crush 5-seed Cleveland 45-14 before being run out of Baltimore 34-10. Kansas City won the Super Bowl again by defeating San Francisco
|
|
|
Over-all
|
Conference
|
Division
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFC
|
Division
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
|
Baltimore
|
North
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
|
Cincinnati
|
North
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
|
Indianapolis
|
South
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Jacksonville
|
South
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
|
Tennessee
|
South
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Denver
|
West
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
NFC
|
Division
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
|
NY Giants
|
East
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
|
Carolina
|
South
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
LA Rams
|
West
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
This year, Baltimore has to be the most shocking team in the mix of 0-2 teams. It also has to sting inside that clubhouse that the Ravens lost game one at Kansas City by a toe, and then blew a 23-13 lead at home over Las Vegas in the fourth quarter to lose game two with 27 seconds left.
It's just the second Baltimore team under John Harbaugh to start 0-2 and he has been there since 2008. The last time the Ravens started 0-2 was in 2015 when they also lost in week three before notching their first win. They finished 5-11 but, oddly enough, tied division rival and playoff bound Pittsburgh (10-6) for the second-best division record at 3-3, thanks to beating the Steelers for two of those five wins.
The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPol.com aren't the only source that expected the Ravens to contend for the Super Bowl title. They had Baltimore going 14-3 over-all, 10-2 in the conference, and 5-1 in the division.
Indianapolis would be next on the list of shocking 0-2 starts from the AFC, while Tennessee is the last surprising, the Colts were supposed to be a surprising 14-3 team while the Titans were given the NFL's worst projected record at 2-15.
The LA Rams are the big shock in the NFC as they were supposed to battle San Francisco down to the wire and finish 13-4 over-all, 8-4 in the NFC, and 4-2 in the division.
The Giants were projected to finish 7-10 while the Panthers were saddled with a 3-14 forecast.
It is hugely important for the 0-2 teams to get to 1-2 as 10 teams since 2020 have started 1-2 and made the playoffs. Conversely, only four have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-3.
Two of those 0-2 teams will be featured on Monday Night as the Bengals host the Commanders, and the Bills entertain the Jaguars.
The problem for these 0-2 teams is that none are favored by the oddsmakers to win. However, two of them - Baltimore and Tennessee - are favored by the computer.
The computer has Dallas making up for last week's embarrassing 44-19 loss to the Saints. The Cowboys were 8-0 at home last year in the regular season. They are 0-2 since then with a 48-32 loss to Green Bay in the playoffs that was a bit similar to last week's loss to New Orleans. The line favors the Ravens while the computer takes the Cowboys.
The oddsmakers and Congrove's algorithm see eye-to-eye on this one which means, since this is the NFL, be wary of an upset. Remember, the bookmakers were just 5-10-1 against the spread last week,
Again, the oddsmakers and the computer agree who should win the game outright. The Colts get a fairly healthy spread but better improve on defense in a hurry as that unit ranks 31 out of 32 teams.
It may be as bleak as it seems for Jacksonville when you look at the team statistics in this matchup. Through two games, these teams aren't very far apart as the Jags have allowed 348.5 yards per game on defense to the Bills' 310.5, while Jacksonville's offense has gained 295 to Buffalo's 299.5.
There's talk of Jordan Love coming back off of injury to play in this game. If it doesn't happen, Malik Willis would love to get a win at his old team that traded him for a 7th-round pick (ouch).
Denver is 30th out of 32 teams in scoring at 13 per game, but is tied for 10th in scoring defense at 19.5 per game. The Bucs have won their first two games by an average of 28.5 to 18.
While more trouble looms for QB DeShaun Watson, the Giants pop into town. These have been two lethargic offenses through two weeks with Cleveland ranked 28th and the Giants 25th. On defense, the Browns rank 12th while the Giants are 26th. One would think that the line and computer pick make sense at first glance, but Cleveland was blown out at home in week one by a Dallas team that just got crushed itself at home by the Saints, and barely managed to win an ugly game at Jacksonville where the Browns were called for 13 penalties for 100 yards.
Vegas showed heart and determination in coming back from a 10-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to steal a win in Baltimore. Carolina is already waving the white flag of surrender on QB Bryce Young and starting 36-year-old Andy Dalton. It's not surprising that Young has been portrayed as being p.o.'d by that decision.
Injuries are a big question mark for both teams. San Francisco could have safety Talanoa Hufanga (knee) returning, while WR Deebo Samuel (calf) hasn't practiced, and RB Christian McCaffery (Achilles tendonitis) is on IR. For the Rams, WR Puka Nacua was already on the IR list so it doesn't help that WR Cooper Cupp (ankle) is out 'for an extended period of time", along with, safety John Johnson III (shoulder) and OL Jonah Jackson (shoulder). K Joshua Karty has been held out of pratcie in hopes his groin will be better by Sunday.