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There have been 83 games decided by seven-or-fewer points and 73 games decided by six-or-fewer points this season, both the most such games through Week 10 in NFL history. The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) became the fifth reigning Super Bowl champion to win its first nine games and are the first team since the 2006 Indianapolis Colts to record seven wins of seven-or-fewer points in its first nine games of a season.
For one of the rare times since 1970, there will two Week 11 games featuring matchups of teams each with at least seven wins - Baltimore at Pittsburgh, and Kansas City at Buffalo.
Jim Sannes at FanDuel.com has his NFL best bets and predictions of those games and others.
CollegeFootballPoll.com's weekly NFL picks have the Ravens under the spread (-3.5) by just 0.43, and favor the Bills (-2) by 2.93 points at home.
The Bills are running away with the AFC East, having built a 4.5-game lead over the Dolphins, and a 5-game lead over the Jets and Patriots. They have won 5 straight games, and are undefeated at home (4-0) and in the division (3-0). They are 6-2 within the conference, having lost road games to Baltimore and Houston in weeks 4 and 5.
Meanwhile, the Steelers, who are just a half-game up on the Ravens, will be playing their first divisional game while Baltimore (2-1), Cincinnati (1-2) and Cleveland (1-1) have all played at least two. Baltimore was the preseason pick to win the division and enters this week as the betting favorite in the AFC North, just ahead of Pittsburgh.
The Bears are the only other team that have yet to play a division foe. That also changes this week when they host the Packers as 5.5-point underdogs on the spread, and 1.66-point dogs by the computer.
Baltimore enters Week 11 with the league’s top scoring offense (31.8 points per game) and total offense (440.2 yards per game) while Pittsburgh possesses the second-ranked scoring defense (16.2 points allowed per game). The Steelers enter their first divisional game of the season on a four-game winning streak and have averaged 30.8 points per game since Week 6, the third-most in the NFL over that span, trailing only Detroit (36 points per game) and Baltimore (34.2).
Baltimore is one of three teams in NFL history to score at least 20 points and record 375-or-more yards of offense in each of its first 10 games of a season, joining the 2013 Denver Broncos (first 13 games) and 2000 St. Louis Rams (first 11).
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leads the NFL with a 123.2 rating, ranks tied-first with 24 touchdown passes and second with 2,669 passing yards this season. In Week 10, he became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to record a passer rating of 100-or-higher in eight consecutive games within a season, joining Tom Brady (eight consecutive games in 2007 and 2010), Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (nine in 2004 and eight in 2005) and Aaron Rodgers (12 in 2011 and eight in 2020).
Baltimore running back Derrick Henry leads the league with 1,216 scrimmage yards and 14 scrimmage touchdowns (league-best 12 rushing, two receiving) in 2024 and became the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to record a touchdown in each of his first 10 games of a season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson (first 14 games in 1975), Jerry Rice (first 12 in 1987) and John Riggins (first 12 in 1983) as well as Todd Gurley (first 10 in 2018).
The Chiefs have won 15 consecutive games, including the playoffs, and can become the fifth team since 1990 to win 16 consecutive games, including the postseason, joining the 2003-04 New England Patriots (21 consecutive wins), 2010-11 Green Bay Packers (19), 2007-08 New England Patriots (18) and 1997-98 Denver Broncos (18).
Since 2020, the Bills have a 3-1 regular season record against the Chiefs while Kansas City has won all three postseason matchups, including the 2023 AFC Divisional playoffs in Buffalo. In those seven contests, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has totaled 20 touchdowns (16 passing, four rushing) while Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has recorded 16 touchdowns (15 passing, one rushing).
Mahomes has 98 career wins (including the postseason), trailing only Tom Brady (100) for the most by a quarterback in his first eight seasons in NFL history.
Allen has 71 career regular-season wins and can surpass Joe Flacco (72) for the third-most regular-season wins by a quarterback in his first seven seasons in NFL history. Only Russell Wilson (75) and Mahomes (74) have more.
Three additional division leaders – Atlanta (NFC South), Detroit (NFC North) and Houston (AFC South) – face teams from the other conference in Week 11.
The Lions overcame a 16-point deficit to win in Week 10, their largest comeback victory since overcoming a 21-point deficit against Atlanta in Week 8 of the 2014 season. The Lions have the best record in the NFC this season and with a win in Week 11, Detroit can win nine of its first 10 games of a season for the second time in franchise history (won first 10 games in 1934).
Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can become the fifth player since 2000 with a touchdown reception in eight consecutive games within a season, joining A.J. Green (nine consecutive games in 2012 with Cincinnati), Davante Adams (eight in 2020 with Green Bay), Antonio Brown (eight in 2018 with Pittsburgh) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (eight in 2007 with Cincinnati).
Atlanta and Denver are two of six teams that missed the postseason last year and have a .500-or-better record entering Week 11, along with Arizona (6-4), the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), Minnesota (7-2) and Washington (7-3).
Falcons safety Justin Simmons spent the first eight seasons of his career (2016-23) with Denver and totaled 30 interceptions, the most in the NFL among all players in that span.
Denver’s Bo Nix can join Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (1998) as the only rookie quarterbacks all-time with at least 200 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive home games.
Texans running back Joe Mixon can become the fifth player all-time with at least 90 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown in seven of his first eight games of a season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1958) and O.J. Simpson (1975) as well as Priest Holmes (2002) and LeSean McCoy (2011).
Editor's Note: At the end of last season, Dallas was 8-0 at home and had won 16 straight home games, the second longest streak in franchse history. Then they promptly lost at home to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round playoff game and not much has gone right since that upset occurred.
Dallas is 4-2 in regular season games vs. Houston, and the Texans are 0-3 in Dallas.
| 12/11/2022 | Houston Texans | 23 | @ | Dallas Cowboys | 27 |
| 10/07/2018 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | @ | Houston Texans | 19 |
| 10/05/2014 | Houston Texans | 17 | @ | Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
| 09/26/2010 | Dallas Cowboys | 27 | @ | Houston Texans | 13 |
| 10/15/2006 | Houston Texans | 6 | @ | Dallas Cowboys | 34 |
| 09/08/2002 | Dallas Cowboys | 10 | @ | Houston Texans | 19 |
The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) host the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) and enter Week 11 with the league’s top scoring defense, allowing 13.1 points per game. The Chargers are the fourth team since 1990 to allow 20-or-fewer points in each of their first nine games of a season, joining the 1990 New York Giants (first 10 games), 2013 Kansas City Chiefs (first nine) and 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars (first nine).
Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 2,672 passing yards and ranks tied for first with 24 touchdown passes, while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving yards (981) and touchdown receptions (10). Burrow and Chase are the first set of teammates to lead the league in passing yards and receiving yards entering Week 11 since the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp in 2021.
Burrow has nine touchdown passes in his past two games and can become the first player since 2020 (Russell Wilson) with at least four touchdown passes in three consecutive games within a season.
Chase had 11 receptions for 264 yards and three touchdowns in Week 10 and became the first player in NFL history with multiple career games with 250 receiving yards and multiple touchdown receptions. Chase, who is 24 years old, joined Pro Football Hall of Famers Lance Alworth and Torry Holt as the only players in NFL history with three games of 200-or-more receiving yards prior to their 25th birthday.
Joseph Santoliquito can be followed on "X" (formerly Twitter) @JSantoliquito.
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CollegeFootballPoll.com's Dave Congrove is member of the Maxwell Football Club.