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The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have been independently measured, year-in and year-out, as the most reliable predictor of major college football games (D1/FBS), against the spread and straight up. In the Covid year that saw the FCS move its season to the Spring, a separate set of rankings was developed to track those schools. Its FCS performance has even topped the FBS model.
The debut comes just in time for Thursday's start to the 2024 NFL season when two of the league's top quarterbacks clash at Arrowhead. As of Tuesday morning, Kansas City is favored by 3 at FanDuel,com while the computer lowers that margin to 2.20 points for the hometown team.
On Friday, the NFL makes its first visit to South America with Green Bay and Philadelphia battling in São Paulo, Brazil.
Most sportsbooks had the Eagles also favored by 3 on Tuesday morning, though 2.5 could still be found. The computer only gives Philly a 1.10-point advantage.
The computer's NFL Rankings and accompanying NFL Picks underwent five seasons of shadow modeling and tweaking.
As with the college models, the rankings combine NFL schedule strength with roster talent and coaching performance to determine preseason rankings. In short, it forms a response to these three main questions:
The first question is easiest to answer as, unlike college, the NFL schedules come from the league office with teams receiving easier schedules if they were closer to the bottom of the league standings the previous year. It doesn't necessarily mean that the Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs will have the toughest schedule, but it will be certainly be tougher than, say, the Chicago Bears who finished at the bottom.
A computer assessment looks solely at the numbers. It's a game of percentages. The eye test doesn't exist.
Also See: Projected Final Standings of each NFL Division.
One of the more interesting aspects to look at with the computer's numbers is the performance on opposite picks. Over the Labor Day weekend, the FBS Rankings were 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in picking the underdog. The FCS Rankings were 4-2 on the moneyline, as well as the spread.
Congrove's FBS Rankings are recognized by the NCAA as an official selector of the National Champion.
The creator of the rankings is also a writer and student of the game who has a vote in numerous college awards and the hall of fame. Prior to the release of the NFL Rankings, he already had a vote in the NFL's Bert Bell (Player of the Year Award) and Greasy Neale (Coach of the Year Award). Both are presented by the prestigious Maxwell Football Club.
The Ravens at Chiefs game will be easy for anyone to watch as it will be carried on NBC and its Peacock streaming service, as well as NFL+. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. eastern time which is 7:20 p.m. local time.
The Packers-Eagles game is being used to push subscriptions to Peacock. Kickoff for that game is 8:15 p.m. eastern time which is 9:15 p.m. in Brasilia Standard Time.