NFL Opening Week Preview, Computer Picks

September 5, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

The 2024 NFL season kicks off tonight with a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game, but this one will be hosted by Kansas City. Last year, Baltimore had everything it wanted - home field advantage throughout the playoff and the league's MVP at QB. The Ravens appeared set to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2012 season. But at the end of the day, Lamar Jackson couldn't deliver what two previous, and less talented quarterbacks, could - a trip to the big game.

Not only did Trent Dilfer (2000) and Joe Flacco (2012) deliver a trip to the Super Bowl, they won the dang thing. Only two teams have played two or more Super Bowls and never lost - the Ravens and the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Tonight, Kansas City (-3) is favored to win again, but the NFL Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com put the margin under the spread at 2.20.

Tomorrow night, the NFL makes its first foray into South America with Philadelphia and Green Bay crossing paths in São Paulo. Never very smart from a political angle, the NFL makes this trip while Brazil has been thrown into chaos with the upheaval of free speech rights. (Brazil Supreme Court panel unanimously upholds judge's decision to block X nationwide). In support of democratic principles, the NFL should have pulled out immediately.

The line favors Philadelphia (-2.5) and so does the computer (-1.10) but it goes under the spread again. The Eagles didn't get out of the first round last year, getting drubbed 32-9 at Tampa Bay, while Green Bay shocked Dallas in Dallas 48-32 when Dallas had not lost a home game all year. The Packers even had their shot at knocking out San Francisco on the road, and led by four with a chance to increase the lead by 7 midway through the final stanza, but a 41-yard field goal attempt went wide left with 6:18 remaining. The 49ers marched downfield and scored on Christian McCaffrey's 6-yard run with 1:07 left. Jordan Love's ill-advised throw back across his body to the center of the field resulted in an interception to end Green Bay's final drive.

Speaking of Green Bay, former quarterback Aaron Rodgers will try to survive a second debut with the New York Jets. He was lost for the season with an Achilles injury on the fourth play of the first series in last year's opener vs. Buffalo. This time, he will open the season on the road at those aforementioned San Francisco 49ers who went on to advance to the Super Bowl and fall 25-22 to Kansas City.

The line favors San Francisco (-4.5) while the computer goes well over the spread for the 49ers (-8.70). There is an Aaron Rodgers/Brock Purdy Prop Bet (+1100) for each to record 300+ yards passing.

On Sunday, four games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET with Houston (-2.5) at Indianapolis and the COlts getting an opppsite play (-6.35) from the computer. Jags-Dolphins, Panthers-Saints, and Vikings-Giants are the other early games.

Get the Odds and Computer Pick for those contests, along with all 16 games on the opening week NFL contests.

The computrer has two otehr opposite plays with Pittsburgh by 0.75 at Atlanta (-3.5), and the Giants by 4.78 at home over the Vikings (-1.5).