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Agree with them or not, they are what they are. "They" are the College Football Playoff Committee's first rankings of the 2023 season.
In case you missed them, here are the complete committee rankings.
We won't spend our time taking a lot of issue with initial rankings as there is plenty time for things to make more sense. But collectively, we agree that it's imperative that they get the Group of Five automatic qualifier right. As it stands, the committee has Tulane at No. 24 and Air Force at No. 25, while the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com have the undefeated Falcons at No. 14 and the 7-1 Green Wave at No. 21. Tulane has the better schedule of strength, but the Ole Miss game was still a loss, and the Falcons have none of those nasty little loss thingys. Let's see how this plays out.
Ohio State at No. 1 was not terribly shocking. If we wanted to, we could make a case for all five remaining undefeated teams to be No. 1 The computer has Ohio State ranked 3rd. CollegeFootballPoll.com's Dave Congrove ranked them 4th on his most-recent Super 16 Poll ballot. Georgia has been the top team in the polls all year as the defending national champions, and the Bulldogs still haven't lost any of their last 25 games.
The argument for Georgia, and the argument for Air Force are one in the same. Winning should matter, and the longer you keep winning, the more difficult it gets, so the more it should probably be respected and rewarded.
Conference battles heat up with this week, and one of the more interesting chases is happening in the ACC. While Florida State appears to be a lock to claim the top spot, the race for second place and a shot at the 'Noles in the conference title game could go along way toward being decided when Louisville hosts Virginia Tech on Saturday. They are the only 1-loss teams remaining in the conference. The Cardinals opened as 9.5-poiint favorites, and the computer stretches that number to 11.70. The big question could be how the Hokies defend against one of the better rushing teams in the conference. Will that unit shut down Louisville, like it has done in 3 of its last 4 games, or get gashed like it did at Florida State?
Rankings are based on the CFP Playoff Committee.
(12) Missouri at (2) Georgia - These teams have only met 12 times with 11 of those coming since Missouri entered the SEC in 2012. The Tigers won that meeting, but have, lost the last 10 while being held to 6 points or less in four of those games.
Missouri was projected by the computer to have a decent season, finishing 7-5 overall and 4-4 in the conferences. Behind the QB play of Brady Cook, the Tigers are more than just good - and they just might be gr-r-reat. Cook is 3rd in the SEC passing yards per game, racking up 2,259 yards with 15 TD's and just 3 INT's. Carson Beck for Georgia is sitting at 2,462 yards with 14 TD's and 4 INT's. Missouri RB Corey Schrader has 807 yards and 9 TD's to rank 2nd in the SEC in rushing at 100.88 yards per game. As a team, Georgia actually has a few more rushing yards than Missouri. Georgia has a statistical upper hand on defense, allowing 74 fewer yards and 6 fewer points per game.
Pick: Georgia (-16.5) opened as a heavy favorite. The computer doesn't disagree by much, but lowers the margin to 15.44.
(5) Washington at (20) USC - Caleb Wiliams, the preseason favorite to repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner, has precipitously dropped in the odds of doing so after back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah and narrow escapes from Arizona and Cal. Williams is paying the price for his teams' lack of defense.
USC will have its work cut against the visiting Huskies as QB Michael Penix Jr is now the Heisman odds leader. Washington is 2nd and USC is 3rd in the PAC-12 in total offense. The Huskies are 7th and the Trojans are 9th in total defense.
Pick: Washington (-4.5) opened as a road favorite and the computer barely agrees with a projected margin of 0.68.
(14) LSU at (8) Alabama - Both teams enter off a bye week. Alabama is 106-9 at home under Nick Saban, but did lose 34-24 at home to Texas on 10/9 to end a 21-game home winning streak. They hadn't lost a home game since LSU did the trick, 46-41, in the Bayou Bengals' 2019 national championship season in 2019. That was Saban's third home loss to LSU (2007, 2011). Current LSU coach Brian Kelly is 1-2 vs. Saban as he finally got his first win over the G.O.A.T. last year in Baton Rouge in a 32-31 thriller with a walk-off 2-point conversion in the first overtime. His previous losses were with Notre Dame where his team was crushed 42-14 the 2012 season BCS Championship Game, and also fell 31-14 in a CFP Semifinal in the 2020 season.
These coaches have won a combined 592 games with Saban owning a 292-70-1 (.806) record, and Kelly going 300-103-2 (.743). When it comes to national championships, Saban leads Kelly 7-0.
Upset Pick: As the line suggests, even the sportsbooks have some doubt about the outcome of this game. A 3.5-point betting line is barely covering the Tide's home field advantage. The computer projection is LSU by 0.50, while the computer trend line play is LSU by 2.93.
None
(SEE: Weekly Picks/Scores)
Here is a look at who each is playing, with sportsbook odds in parenthesis, followed by the computer's projected margin.
HOME TEAM in CAPS.
ACC
Florida State, 8-0 (-21.5) by 23.50 at PITT
B1G
MICHIGAN, 8-0 (-32.5) by 36.11 vs. Purdue
Ohio State, 8-0 (-17.5) by 22.40 at RUTGERS
CUSA
LIBERTY, 8-0 (-16.50) by 14.56-vs. Louisiana Tech
MWC
Air Force, 8-0 (-18.5) by 13.04 vs. Army at Denver
PAC-12
Washington, 8-0 (-4.5) by 0.68 at USC
SEC
GEORGIA 8-0 (-16.5) by 15.44 vs. Missouri
SUN BELT
James Madison 8-0 (-5.5) by 6.61 at GEORGIA STATE
The last team standing is still Sam Houston which was favored to win last Wednesday (10/25) over UTEP, but suffered another disappointing close loss.
CUSA
SAM HOUSTON (-18.5) by 14.93 vs. FCS member Kennesaw State
When Air Force faces Army in Denver this week, the Falcons can retain the C-I-C with a win as the Falcons already dispatched Navy 17-6 two weeks ago in Annapolis. Since its inception in 1972, the trophy has been won by Air Force for 21 years, compared to Navy's 16 and Army's 9. It has resided at Air Force for a total of 22 years, compared to 19 for Navy and just 10 for Army.
Air Force (-18.50) by 13.04 over Army (at Denver)
Texas A&M at Ole Miss - Could Jimbo Fisher be on his way out the door with another loss? It's an expensive possibility.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - The Final Bedlam? Yep, at least for awhile. With the Sooners off to the SEC, this annual state rivalry clash disappears. The Sooners are 91-19-7 against the Cowboys, but OSU would love nothing more to send off OU as a loser. Contracts for nonconference games are made to be broken but, for now, the next available season that both schools have a Power 5 Team hole to fill is 2031.
Jacksonville State at South Carolina - Columbia's Gamecocks no longer have to feel so isolated as the Gamecoks from Jacksonville, Alabama are coming over for a play date. There is serious question as to which team will ruffle the other teams' feathers. Jax State is 7-2 while South Carolina is just 2-6 and must win this game to keep any hopes of a bowl bid alive.
This season has 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army playing two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that do NOT play a FCS program, 7 are in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three are Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
No FBS-FCS games were scheduled this past weekend. There will be 3 such games this coming Saturday (November 4), followed by 1 on November 11, and the remaining 4 on November 18. This week has Campbell at North Carolina, Kennesaw State at Sam Houston, and Merrimack at UMass.
The FBS programs are 106-4 this year against the FCS schools. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,792-152 (.922) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Here are the FCS wins in 2023, so far:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
GEORGIA - Won 23 straight home games, 25 straight over-all, and 13 straight true road games.
Last: 43-20 win over Florida in Jacksonville on Saturday, October 28.
Next: Hosts Missouri on Saturday, November 4.
MICHIGAN - Won 20 straight conference games.
Last: 49-0 win at Michigan State on Saturday, October 21.
Next: After a bye week, hosts Purdue on Saturday, November 4.
SAM HOUSTON - Lost 10 straight over-all (8 since entering FBS).
Last: 37-34 home loss to UTEP on Wednesday, October 25.
Next: Hosts FCS member Kennesaw State on Saturday, November 4.
UMASS - Lost 8 straight home games.
Last: 21-14 win at Army on Saturday, October 28.
Next: Hosts FCS member Merrimack on Saturday, November 4.
NORTHWESTERN - Lost 14 straight road games.
Last: 33-27 home over Maryland on Saturday, October 28.
Next: Hosts Iowa on Saturday, November 4.
ARIZONA STATE - Had lost 8 straight conference games.
Last: 38-27 home win over Washington State on Saturday, October 28.
Next: Visits Utah on Saturday, November 4.
MICHIGAN STATE and ULM have each lost 7 straight straight conference games.