Examining the Imbalance of the NFL Schedules

August 26, 2024 by Dave Congrove, CollegeFootballPoll.com

As collegefootballpoll.com gets ready to launch an NFL version of computer ratings and related picks, one thing that stood out while building the database is how hapless the scheduling seems to be.

On opening night of the NFL season, Baltimore goes to Kansas City. Maybe the NFL would be better off having such a phenomenal contest in week 3, especially with a preseason that is reduced to just 3 games and the stars of the league having barely seen the field. I don't know about you, but I would like to see NFL MVP Candidates like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have a couple of outings under their belt. More importantly, I would like to give the offensive and defensive front lines a few snaps to get in unison and avoid numerous and annoying offside and illegal procedure penalties.

If that's not a bone you want to pick, then let's throw this one out there. How about setting up divisional play with some uniformity? As it stands, that portion of the scheduling seems to be completely random.

If I am a fan of the Denver Broncos, I am grateful to see that recently named rookie starting QB Bo Nix will get a break-in period of four games before the first divisional game pops up in week five. And, that game will happen at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and not the Kansas City Chiefs. In fact, the following week presents the first divisional road game and that will be in L.A. against the Chargers who have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh and a roster that only returns only half of its players from a year ago --- including just two-thirds of the starters. Again, it provides a more win-able game.

Atlanta and New Orleans play 5 of their 6 NFC South opponents in the first 10 weeks of the 18-week schedule, then play their 6th and final divisional foe on the last weekend of the season.

But within the same division, Carolina's schedule is more evenly spread out with games in weeks 1, 6, 9, 13, 17 and 18. The same is true for Tampa Bay which plays its NFC South foes in weeks 5, 6, 8, 13, 17 and 18.

Is it better to play that part of your schedule early when your players may be as fresh and healthy as they are going to be, or is it more advantageous to have them more spaced out?

Better yet, is it best to have them stacked at the end when you know what your team has to accomplish to challenge for that divisional crown?

If the latter is correct, then Tennessee has it made in the AFC South as 4 of its divisional games come in the final 5 weeks of the season. And Pittsburgh plays all 6 of its AFC North opponents over the final 8 weeks - and all of those come after the Steelers get their bye in week 9.

I don't know the answer to any of those questions, but fans are surely asking them, too. And they also can't help but wonder how it should affect their strategy for NFL wagering.

One Reddit member suggested that everyone in the NFL play their divisional foes as games 6, 7 and 8, and then 13, 14 and 15.

That makes a lot of sense as it allows for each to have played at least 4 games (no one gets a bye before week 5) and get the kinks worked out to face that part of their schedule while possibly at peak performance. And each team would have the last couple or three weeks to alter their lineups for rest or recovery, as needed, before the playoffs begin.

Everyone should be able to agree that radically different schedules should not have the opportunity to create a competitive edge, or disadvantage, as the case may be. There should, indeed, be a window in each half of the season where divisional schedules are placed.

Perhaps you even go a little further and also put division and conference cross-over games in their own scheduling windows.

Such a model could greatly increase promotional opportunities of the league by having segments of the schedule that create their own unique value to hype.

How about it, NFL? Can we get you onboard?