Computer Picks Perform Well in NFL Debut; Bills Visit Dolphins To Start Week 2

September 10, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Initially, the algorithm was created in 1992 to measure the true strength of major college football teams which, at the time, were classified as 1-A and are now known as FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision). They first went public in 1993 via a syndicated radio show called "The Computer Sez" that provided three-minute segments twice weekly - one to reveal the new Top 25, and the second to present the upcoming weekend picks. Since 1999, the rankings have been hosted on CollegeFootballPoll.com, and are regarded as the most accurate ranking of any either type, human poll or computer-based. Historically, they have correctly picked the winner of 74.7% of over 24,000 games played by FBS schools, and have a mark of 52.9% against the spread on more than 20,500 games where a betting line was set.

During the Covid season, a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) version was released and those rankings and picks are now in their fifth season with more than 3,150 games to measure their accuracy. The FCS picks have been correct 74.6% of the time, while the spread predictions have been right 53.4% of the time.

This past weekend, the NFL Picks debuted by correctly picking 75% of outright winners (12-4) and hitting 62.5% against the spread.

Week Two picks of all 16 games have been posted, starting with Thursday night's battle between AFC East contenders, Buffalo and Miami, with the Dolphins (-1.5) opening as the favorites at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The computer likes Miami by 3.62.

Both the Bills and Dolphins were victorious on home games on Sunday with Buffalo downing Arizona 34-28 and Miami rallying past Jacksonville 20-17.

Buffalo rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman proved he could be a top NFL Fantasy player as he collected four of the five passes thrown in his direction and added 9.10 points to anyone who had him on their team. The Bills had to battle back to win this game after falling behind 17-10 at the half, but outscored the Cardinals 24-11 after the break.

Josh Allen was the man as the QB threw a pair of TD passes and ran for two more scores, but apparently hurt his non-throwing hand on the go-ahead score when attempted to leap the Arizona defender. The severity of the injury was not immediately known. Coach Sean McDermott on Monday said he was "cleared to practice and play".

For Miami, it took a 52-yard walk-off field goal from Jason Sanders to finish a rally past Jacksonville with a 20-17 win. The Jags had a 17-7 halftime lead, but laid an egg in the second half. Travis Etienn'se fumble into the end zone ended their best threat to put more pressure on the Dolphins, and Miami scored on an 80-yard pass play from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill on the very next play to pull to within three points at 17-14. Otherwise, it's likely a 24-7 score and a different outcome for Jacksonville.

Preseason projections by the computer had Miami picked to win the division (10-7, 8-4, 5-1) with Buffalo second (9-8, 7-5, 4-2). So even though this is just the second game of the season, the result could play a huge factor in each teams' playoff status at the end of the regular season. Whichever emerges victorious on Thursday has the clear upper hand.