College Football Returns Saturday (Why Does the Computer Hate 'Bama?)

August 21, 2019 by Dave Congrove

College football is here! Can I get an "amen"? By the way, the computer doesn't hate 'Bama. However, I will attempt to explain why the Tide is projected to miss the Final Four for the first time in the history of the College Football Playoffs. But first....

....Florida and Miami kick off the 2019 season at 7pm ET on Saturday in Orlando with the Gators serving as a 13.47-point favorite, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com. The only other contest gets underway 3-1/2 hours later in Hawaii where the visiting Arizona Wildcats are a 7.79-point computer choice.

See more about the Arizona-Hawaii game in our Feature Picks section where we highlight the games we believe the computer has the best chance at being correct.

Michigan is the computer's preseason choice to win the national title, tagging the Wolverines as an ultra-slim 0.11-point favorite over LSU in the College Football Playoff National Championship game in New Orleans on January 13.

If the computer's predictions play out to perfection, Michigan will topple defending national champion Clemson in one semifinal game and LSU eliminates Oregon in the other.

That means no Big 12 team for the first time since the 2016 season. Oklahoma has been the only Big 12 team to represent the conference in the Final Four era, but has lost all three games.

Conversely, Alabama and Clemson have combined to win 11 of the 15 games played under the College Football Playoff system. 'Bama has 6 wins and Clemson has 5.

Thus, it is a bit shocking that Alabama is missing from the computer's projected Final Four for 2019. In fact, the computer has the Tide dropping three games - an early season loss to South Carolina on the road, a home game versus LSU, and the Iron Bowl at Auburn.

That's the college football equivalence of blasphemy, according to the early flood of emails and social media posts.

They may be right. Football is religion in the south, and Alabama has been on quite the pedestal over the last decade. The Tide captured the 2009, 2011 and 2012 BCS National Championships, followed by College Football Playoff titles in 2015 and 2017.

'Bama has the Heisman runner-up in Tua Tagovailoa back at QB, but has lost a half-dozen starters on both sides of the ball. Perhaps weighing more negatively on the computer's low No. 18 ranking is a shameful non-conference schedule that features Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and FCS member Western Carolina. No doubt that should be an easy 4 wins, but that group significantly lowers the strength of schedule. And the conference slate is going to be difficult to navigate with most of the tough games on the road and the easier ones at home. Alabama travels to Texas A&M and Mississippi State, in addition to the aforementioned battle against the Gamecocks and that end-of-season trip to that other Alabama school. Losing three is not impossible.

So what about those schools that are suppose to beat mighty Alabama?

South Carolina (Sept. 14) - The football program has a history of not living up to the hype, but is 1-1 vs. Nick Saban-coached Alabama teams. This game is early in the season so Will Muschamp's boys could certainly spring the surprise. It should be noted that the Gamecocks are only 'favored' by 0.38.

LSU (Nov. 9) - The Bayou Bengals are a solid 5.86-point pick at Alabama which, in itself, should drive Tide fans nuts. LSU has lost 8 straight to 'Bama, and 10 of the last 12. Ed Orgeron welcomes back 16 starters but does it matter when those guys lost 29-0 to Alabama in Baton Rouge?

Auburn (Nov. 30) - The Tigers are a 3.27-point home favorite. Auburn has won 5 of the last 8 home games vs. Alabama. For this pick to hold up, redshirt freshman QB Joey Gatewood or true freshman Bo Nix better be the real deal because Auburn has plenty of other question marks on an offense that's missing it's top running back and top two receivers from a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Auburn lost 52-21 to the Tide.

See more 2019 prediction mistakes in our complete Season Preview.

For the last word on the subject, we'll simply say that Alabama fans should know by now that two football teams can easily ruin a perfectly good prediction.

FBS vs. FCS

114 games this year pit FBS teams against FCS schools. That's two more than a season ago when FBS teams won 105 of 112 games.

FBS teams are 1,324-124 (.914) vs. FCS schools since we began tracking this in 2003.

Here were all of the FCS victories over FBS teams in 2018:

August 30: UC Davis 44, San Jose State 31
September 1: Villanova 19, Temple 17
September 1: Northern Arizona 30, UTEP 10
September 1: Nicholls State 26, Kansas 23 (OT)
September 2: North Carolina A&T 28, East Carolina 23
September 8: Maine 31, Western Kentucky 28
September 22: Illinois State 35, Colorado State 19

There will be 40 FBS vs. FCS games over the Labor Day holiday.

Streaks

CLEMSON - Won 15 straight over-all (FBS longest).
NEXT: Hosts Georgia Tech on August 29.

UCF - Won 18 straight conference games including consecutive AAC titles (FBS longest). Won 22 straight regular season games (FBS longest). Had 25-game overall win streak (was FBS longest) snapped in 40-32 loss to LSU in Fiesta Bowl on January 1.
NEXT: Hosts Florida A&M on August 29.

ALABAMA - Won 26 straight home games (FBS longest). Had won 16 straight overall (FBS longest) but lost 44-16 to Clemson in the national championship game on January 7 at Santa Clara, California.
NEXT: Duke at Atlanta on August 31.

OKLAHOMA - Won 20 straight true road games (FBS longest).
NEXT: Hosts Houston on September 1.

RUTGERS - Lost 11 straight over-all (FBS longest). Also owns FBS longest conference losing streak at 12 games.
NEXT: Hosts UMass on August 30.

SAN JOSE STATE - Lost 13 straight road games (FBS longest).
NEXT: Hosts FCS member Northern Colorado on August 29.