- Copyright 2024 © CollegeFootballPoll.com
- About CFP / Contact
- Legal Statements
Here are capsule previews, odds, and picks from the Congrove Computer Rankings of each of the four College Football quarterfinal playoff games, beginning with the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve ahead of a triple-header on New Year's Day. Each game will take place in the traditional "New Year's Six Bowls" - the Festa, Peach, Rose and Sugar. The winners of the Fiesta (Boise State vs. Penn State) and Sugar (Notre Dame vs. Georgia) will meet in the Orange Bowl on January 9, and the winners of the Peach (Texas vs. Arizona State) and Rose (Oregon vs. Ohio State) meeting in the Cotton Bowl on January 10.
Odds (as of 12/27): Penn State (-10.5)
Computer Pick: Penn State by 13.36
The outskirts of Phoenix will be awash in blue as Penn State and Boise State meet for the first time for a chance to move on to the semifinals.
The Nittany Lions were never challenged by SMU on Saturday, coasting to a 38-10 victory behind the ground game and an opportunistic D. The Big Ten runner-up, whose only losses this season are to top seed Oregon and No. 8 seed Ohio State, are 7-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl. Getting to 8-0 will require an answer for Bronco RB Ashton Jeanty, the Maxwell Award winner chasing Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record.
Boise State has also made memories in Glendale. The Broncos are 3-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl, highlighted by an historic 43-42 overtime upset of Oklahoma in 2007. Since Jeanty will get maximum attention from a terrific Penn State D, it’ll be incumbent upon QB Maddux Madsen to stare down pressure and make good decisions. The defense will be facing its toughest test since the Week 2 loss at Oregon. While both teams fell to the unbeaten Ducks, Boise State was more impressive and actually led in Eugene in the fourth quarter.
Odds (as of 12/27): Texas (-13.5)
Computer Pick: Texas by 21.83
Texas withstood a furious rally from Clemson Saturday to advance to Atlanta and a date with the Big 12 champs.
The Longhorns addressed their biggest concern Saturday, an offense that failed to score more than 20 points in three of the final four regular season games. Texas controlled the line of scrimmage, amassed almost 500 yards of offense, and won 38-24. The Horns already have one of the top defenses in the country, so they’re poised to go on a deep playoff run if the offense performs the way it did in the opening round.
While the underdogs did not fare well last weekend, Arizona State gets its chance to prove it belongs on the CFP stage. The Sun Devils were one of this season’s biggest surprises, winning the Big 12 title despite being pegged to finish last in the preseason. ASU is led by young head coach Kenny Dillingham and the backfield of Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo, a Maxwell Award semifinalist and 5th-place finisher in Heisman voting. The Sun Devils’ ability to compete in Atlanta hinges on how well they hold up in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Odds (as of 12/27): Ohio State (-2.5)
Computer Pick: Oregon by 0.13
The Rose Bowl gets a matchup that has all the markings of an old-school Big Ten-Pac-12 tilt on New Year’s Day. The Buckeyes get a chance to avenge its one-point loss in Eugene on Oct. 12. Everyone else gets a phenomenal matchup that could ultimately decide the national champion.
Ohio State shook off its regular season-ending loss to Michigan by thoroughly outclassing Tennessee over the weekend, 42-17. The Buckeyes played to their enormous potential in all phases, sending a clear message of their title potential and taking some heat off head coach Ryan Day. If QB Will Howard performs the way he did against the Vols, OSU will be a very tough out over the next month.
Oregon will be taking college football’s only perfect resume into Pasadena. Under Dan Lanning, the Ducks won the Big Ten title with a win over Penn State in their debut season in the league. The Ducks and the Buckeyes were evenly matched in the first meeting, and the sequel could come down to which quarterback is better, Howard or Oregon’s Maxwell Award finalist Dillon Gabriel.
Odds (as of 12/27): Georgia (-1.5)
Computer Pick: Notre Dame by 3.15
You like defense? You are gonna love this year’s Sugar Bowl.
The track will be fast inside the Superdome, but the playmakers will be slowed by these two talented veteran defenses. Notre Dame got here by beating Indiana Friday night, 27-17, in a game that was more lopsided than the score indicated. The defense was air-tight—once again—and explosive RB Jeremiyah Love provided all the offense the Irish needed. However, this will be much different test. Georgia knows it can stack the box to slow the ground game without getting burned by QB Riley Leonard who ranks 81st in yards per attempt and 87th in completions of at least 20 yards.
Notre Dame will be limited in the passing game, but Georgia will have its own issues. The Irish pass defense is a steel trap and Carson Beck’s elbow injury means Bulldog Gunner Stockton will be making his first career start. He did some things in the second half of the SEC Championship Game, but this will be, well, different. The Dawgs will rely on the running of Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier and a defense with a penchant for stepping up when needed under Kirby Smart. Remove Love’s 98-yard run and the Irish averaged just 4.5 yards per play against Indiana, so this is hardly an offensive juggernaut.
PFF is widely recognized as the industry leader in the advanced data collection and analysis for American football. Since 2011, PFF has led football’s charge into the world of analytics. Their services are trusted by all 32 NFL teams and over 100 FBS programs. Major broadcast networks, national media outlets and player agencies all use PFF as a resource as well. PFF’s media network provides fans with apps, tools, podcasts and other content to help satisfy their thirst for deeper insights in the game. For more information about PFF, please visit: pff.com
Rich Cirminiello is the VP of College Awards at Maxwell Football Club. He can be followed on Twitter at @Rich Cirminiello
CollegeFootballPoll.com's Dave Congrove is a proud, multi-year member of the Maxwell Football Club and voter of multiple awards.