News/Commentary

2024 Projected FBS Standings, Rankings, Playoff Teams, Champion

August 15, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

The SEC and the B1G dominate the Congrove Computer Rankings as schools from those conferences are projected to hold the top six spots at the end of the regular season. Additionally, they occupy 11 of the top 18 positions. The ACC gets two of the top eleven.

In the end, Oregon is the favorite to win the national championship in its first year in the B1G, knocking off Texas in its first season in the SEC.

There are two sets of computer rankings posted now at CollegeFootballPoll.com, the projected end-of-regular-season rankings and the beginning of the season rankings.

CollegeFootballPoll.com is celebrating its 26th season on the internet while the Congrove Computer Rankings are embarking on their 32nd season.

The rankings are recognized by the NCAA as an official national champion selector.

Projected Playoff Field

The College Football Playoff expands from 4 to 12 teams this season and will consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams as determined by the CFP Selection Committee. (Read Playoff Explained).

The computer's projected five highest-ranked champions, in order, are Oregon (B1G), Texas (SEC), Florida State (ACC), Oklahoma State (Big 12) and Boise State (MWC).

Barring an embarrassing rout in a conference championship game, we believe the losers of those games would still have an advantage over those teams which did not play in a conference title game.

Therefore, the 7 'at-large' bids (in no particular order) would go to Ole Miss (SEC), Ohio State (B1G), Iowa (B1G), Alabama (SEC), Notre Dame (Ind.), Southern Cal (B1G) and Virginia Tech (ACC). But the SEC could see several playoff teams, including Georgia, of course, which many feel is the creme de la creme of the conference.

Virginia Tech would undoubtedly be the biggest surprise. The Hokies return virtually their entire starting 2023 roster from a team that went 7-6, but finished the year by winning 5-of-7. The question in the committees' eyes could be a strength of schedule that ranks 49th.

Michigan, the 2023 champion, is without Jim Harbaugh. The head coach returned to the NFL after a troubling few years of NCAA investigations, culminating in a 2023 season that saw him suspended for a total of 6 games. The Wolverines are picked to slide to 6th in a B1G Conference that now features 18 teams after adding UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington as the offseason saw the 'conference of champions', the PAC-12, get completely picked apart.

Four other PAC-12 schools moved to the Big 12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah), and two were eventually nabbed by the ACC (Stanford and Cal). 

Florida State is expected to be firmly in the mix of national championship contenders in 2024, just months after being screwed by the selection committee and omitted from last year's playoff after a devastating injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis in the next-to-last game of the regular season.

Undefeated Champion?

The computer has three teams going undefeated through the regular season - Oregon, Texas and Ole Miss. But Texas is picked to defeat the Rebels in the SEC title game.

Others To Watch

There is no shortage of teams that could win it all in 2024, and questions abound as to what will happen in the Big 4 conferences after all of the aforementioned movement of schools.

Penn State, Missouri and LSU are just three of the teams we haven't yet mentioned that are among the College Football Playoff betting favorites to make the playoff.

One thing that is certain is that the chasm between the haves and have-nots has gotten wider, and will likely continue to do so.

Continued realignment is expected and the ACC is in big trouble with Clemson and Florida State looking to lead an exodus to other conferences.

Washington State and Oregon State, the two schools that were left behind in the evisceration of the PAC-12, still need to find a place to go for the long term.

Don't be surprised if Notre Dame looks to make a move into one of the remaining conferences. It would be nice if the Irish could save the ACC by becoming an official member and forcing a renegotiation of that conference's broadcast rights, but don't hold your breath on that happening.

Head Coach Changes

We mentioned Jim Harbaugh leaving Michigan to return to the NFL, but the conference also lost Nick Saban. Sherrone Moore takes over in Ann Arbor, while Kalen DeBoer left Washington to try to fill the shoes of the G.O.A.T. in Tuscaloosa.

Before the season begins, you might want to get a refresher on all of the Head Coaching changes that include Jimbo Fisher being ousted, and the retirements of Jerry Kill, Craig Bohl and Brady Hoke.

Projected Regular Season Conference Standings

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 7 Florida State ACC 87.23 79.96 11 1 8 0 21
2 11 Virginia Tech ACC 79.83 73.18 11 1 7 1 49
3 30 Louisville ACC 80.2 60.15 9 3 7 1 33
4 19 Southern Methodist ACC 79.63 66.36 10 2 6 2 64
4 24 Miami (FLA) ACC 77.24 64.37 10 2 6 2 48
6 32 Clemson ACC 79.67 59.75 9 3 6 2 30
6 37 North Carolina ACC 72.98 54.74 9 3 6 2 61
8 46 North Carolina State ACC 73.3 48.87 8 4 5 3 58
9 57 Boston College ACC 72.39 42.23 7 5 4 4 37
9 59 California ACC 69.6 40.6 7 5 4 4 47
11 78 Georgia Tech ACC 70.83 29.51 5 7 3 5 16
12 73 Syracuse ACC 67.18 33.59 6 6 2 6 60
13 82 Wake Forest ACC 65.07 27.11 5 7 2 6 43
14 107 Stanford ACC 63.11 15.78 3 9 1 7 34
15 115 Virginia ACC 62.1 10.35 2 10 1 7 19
16 108 Duke ACC 62.68 15.67 3 9 0 8 36
17 117 Pittsburgh ACC 58.14 9.69 2 10 0 8 46

Virginia Tech and Louisville do not play; Virginia Tech plays in c'ship game due to better over-all record, higher ranking

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 17 Tulane American 74.55 68.34 11 1 8 0 69
2 23 Memphis American 77.5 64.58 10 2 7 1 91
2 29 UTSA American 72.45 60.38 10 2 7 1 99
4 50 Army American 62.49 46.87 9 3 6 2 122
5 48 South Florida American 71.56 47.71 8 4 6 2 87
6 52 Rice American 68.18 45.45 8 4 4 4 101
7 77 Navy American 61.09 30.55 6 6 4 4 90
8 92 East Carolina American 54.92 22.88 5 7 4 4 126
9 99 Florida Atlantic American 50.78 21.16 5 7 3 5 129
10 104 North Texas American 53.54 17.85 4 8 3 5 86
11 98 Ala.-Birmingham American 51.25 21.35 5 7 2 6 106
12 106 Tulsa American 49.15 16.38 4 8 2 6 111
13 130 Charlotte American 47.96 0 0 12 0 8 70
13 132 Temple American 43.72 0 0 12 0 8 74

Memphis beats UTSA head-to-head in regular season

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 1 Oregon B1G 101.42 101.42 12 0 9 0 25
2 4 Ohio State B1G 95.85 87.86 11 1 8 1 31
2 5 Iowa B1G 88.28 80.92 11 1 8 1 18
2 10 Southern California B1G 84.38 77.35 11 1 8 1 3
5 13 Penn State B1G 86.37 71.98 10 2 7 2 17
6 25 Michigan B1G 85.34 64.01 9 3 7 2 1
7 41 Northwestern B1G 77.22 51.48 8 4 5 4 26
8 56 Washington B1G 76 44.33 7 5 4 5 6
9 64 UCLA B1G 75.99 38 6 6 4 5 2
9 67 Rutgers B1G 72.37 36.19 6 6 4 5 50
11 63 Minnesota B1G 76.18 38.09 6 6 3 6 15
11 68 Maryland B1G 70.13 35.07 6 6 3 6 11
11 70 Nebraska B1G 68.42 34.21 6 6 3 6 39
14 76 Wisconsin B1G 75.27 31.36 5 7 3 6 4
15 85 Indiana B1G 60.27 25.11 5 7 2 7 134
16 96 Illinois B1G 65.18 21.73 4 8 2 7 23
16 100 Michigan State B1G 62.16 20.72 4 8 2 7 20
18 124 Purdue B1G 60.56 5.05 1 11 0 9 8

Ohio State beats Iowa head-to-head in regular season
Neither Ohio State or Iowa play Southern California; Ohio State higher ranking

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 12 Oklahoma State Big 12 79 72.42 11 1 8 1 55
1 14 Utah Big 12 77.93 71.44 11 1 8 1 66
3 20 Iowa State Big 12 79.33 66.11 10 2 8 1 44
4 35 Kansas State Big 12 76.26 57.2 9 3 7 2 59
4 36 West Virginia Big 12 75.7 56.78 9 3 7 2 40
6 38 Kansas Big 12 72.85 54.64 9 3 6 3 67
7 47 Arizona Big 12 71.62 47.75 8 4 6 3 72
8 61 Texas Christian Big 12 68.23 39.8 7 5 5 4 57
9 62 Texas Tech Big 12 68.07 39.71 7 5 4 5 65
10 71 Central Florida Big 12 68 34 6 6 4 5 54
11 97 Baylor Big 12 64.1 21.37 4 8 2 7 52
11 101 Cincinnati Big 12  58.48 19.49 4 8 2 7 63
13 105 Brigham Young Big 12 66.79 16.7 3 9 2 7 51
13 109 Colorado Big 12 62.13 15.53 3 9 2 7 41
15 128 Houston Big 12 50.18 0 0 12 0 9 27
15 129 Arizona State Big 12 49.96 0 0 12 0 9 38

Oklahoma State beats Utah head-to-head in regular season; doesn't play Iowa State
Utah beats Iowa State head-to-head in regular season

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 21 Liberty CUSA 71.03 65.11 11 1 8 0 132
2 43 Western Kentucky CUSA 67.57 50.68 9 3 7 1 107
3 49 Jacksonville State CUSA 62.78 47.09 9 3 6 2 113
4 83 Florida International CUSA 53.55 26.78 6 6 5 3 133
4 84 Kennesaw State CUSA 53.34 26.67 6 6 5 3 124
5 94 New Mexico State CUSA 53.31 22.21 5 7 3 5 115
6 113 Sam Houston CUSA 53.76 13.44 3 9 3 5 103
7 114 Louisiana Tech CUSA 45.55 11.39 3 9 2 6 128
8 123 Middle Tennessee CUSA 44.16 7.36 2 10 1 7 93
9 133 Texas-El Paso CUSA 41.04 0 0 12 0 8 114

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 9 Notre Dame Ind. 84.75 77.69 11 1     22
2 95 Connecticut Ind. 52.67 21.95 5 7     127
3 121 Massachusetts Ind. 45.46 7.58 2 10     78

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 22 Miami (O) MAC 77.84 64.87 10 2 8 0 84
2 45 Toledo MAC 66.13 49.6 9 3 6 2 120
2 51 Northern Illinois MAC 69.78 46.52 8 4 6 2 110
2 54 Bowling Green MAC 67.03 44.69 8 4 6 2 94
5 72 Western Michigan MAC 58.24 33.97 7 5 5 3 117
5 74 Ohio MAC 54.32 31.69 7 5 5 3 121
7 81 Eastern Michigan MAC 55.44 27.72 6 6 4 4 123
8 80 Central Michigan MAC 58.25 29.13 6 6 3 5 109
9 102 Buffalo MAC 46.04 19.18 5 7 3 5 131
10 120 Ball State MAC 48.86 8.14 2 10 1 7 95
10 122 Kent State MAC 44.25 7.38 2 10 1 7 98
12 127 Akron MAC 40.63 3.39 1 11 0 8 81

3-way tie for second. All 3 go 1-1 vs. each other. Tie given to higher-ranked team and better over-all record.
Northern Illinois beats Toledo, loses to Bowling Green head-to-head in regular season.
Bowling Green beats Northern Illinois, loses to Toledo head-to-head in regular season.
Toledo beats Bowling Green, loses to Northern Illinois head-to-head in regular season.

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 15 Boise State MWC 76.79 70.39 11 1 7 0 85
1 33 Fresno State MWC 71.37 59.48 10 2 7 0 97
3 26 Wyoming MWC 68.92 63.18 11 1 6 1 118
4 60 Colorado State MWC 60.76 40.51 8 4 5 2 108
5 66 Utah State MWC 62.13 36.24 7 5 4 3 92
6 75 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 63.19 31.6 6 6 4 3 100
7 90 Air Force MWC 56.59 23.58 5 7 4 3 116
8 79 Hawaii MWC 58.69 29.35 6 6 3 4 119
9 118 San Jose State MWC 53.86 8.98 2 10 1 6 75
9 119 San Diego State MWC 50.39 8.4 2 10 1 6 82
11 126 Nevada MWC 45.44 3.5 1 12 0 7 68
12 131 New Mexico MWC 46.46 0 0 12 0 7 71

Boise State and Fresno State do not play during regular season, but will meet in conference title game which BSU hosts due to better over-all record and higher ranking

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 44 Oregon State PAC-2 66.21 49.66 9 3 1 0 79
2 87 Washington State PAC-2 58.94 24.56 5 7 0 1 77

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 2 Texas SEC 95.24 95.24 12 0 8 0 28
1 3 Mississippi SEC 92.26 92.26 12 0 8 0 35
3 6 Alabama SEC 88.09 80.75 11 1 7 1 7
4 18 Texas A & M SEC 81.35 67.79 10 2 7 1 29
5 8 Georgia SEC 94.23 78.53 10 2 6 2 9
5 16 Oklahoma SEC 83.99 69.99 10 2 6 2 53
7 28 Kentucky SEC 80.51 60.38 9 3 5 3 24
7 31 Missouri SEC 79.69 59.77 9 3 5 3 56
9 40 Louisiana State SEC 81.06 54.04 8 4 5 3 10
10 42 Tennessee SEC 76.43 50.95 8 4 4 4 45
11 65 Auburn SEC 74.21 37.11 6 6 2 6 42
12 88 Florida SEC 72.83 24.28 4 8 2 6 5
13 89 South Carolina SEC 71.38 23.79 4 8 1 7 12
13 93 Arkansas SEC 67.5 22.5 4 8 1 7 32
15 110 Mississippi State SEC 58.62 14.66 3 9 0 8 13
16 116 Vanderbilt SEC 58.45 9.74 2 10 0 8 14

Texas and Mississippi do not meet during regular season; Texas favored on neutral ground in SEC Championship

 

CONF NAT'L TEAM CONF. POWER RANK W L CW CL SOS
1 34 Appalachian State Sun-E 70.42 58.68 10 2 7 1 83
1 39 Coastal Carolina Sun-E 65.24 54.37 10 2 7 1 102
3 58 Georgia Southern Sun-E 62.05 41.37 8 4 6 2 89
4 69 James Madison Sun-E 58.87 34.34 7 5 4 4 125
5 86 Georgia State Sun-E 59.02 24.59 5 7 2 6 76
6 111 Old Dominion Sun-E 56.16 14.04 3 9 2 6 62
6 112 Marshall Sun-E 55.01 13.75 3 9 2 6 88
 
1 27 Texas State Sun-W 68.66 62.94 11 1 8 0 130
2 53 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun-W 67.6 45.07 8 4 6 2 112
2 55 Arkansas State Sun-W 66.59 44.39 8 4 6 2 104
4 91 South Alabama Sun-W 55.29 23.04 5 7 3 5 105
5 103 Troy Sun-W 56.59 18.86 4 8 2 6 96
6 125 Southern Mississippi Sun-W 50.18 4.18 1 11 1 7 80
7 134 Louisiana-Monroe Sun-W 33.64 0 0 12 0 8 73

Texas State hosts and wins Sun Belt Championship game.