2024 Bowl Confidence Points

December 12, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

Confidence Points is a popular pick 'em game for college football fans that presents the dual challenge of picking the winners and assigning points to each pick.

There will be 39 bowl confidence assignments this season, including the determined first round games of the College Football Playoff. However, any games after the 1st round are not, and should not, be included as those are not pre-determined matches and the outcomes of each subsequent round would necessitate a re-shuffling of the confidence rank.

Assign 39 to the pick that gives you the most confidence, and assign 1 to the pick that gives you the least confidence. No number can be assigned more than once.

A perfect record this year would be a total score of 780.

The computer scored 452 points last year as coaching changes, player holdouts, NFL draft declarations, and transfer portal activity have all combined to make projecting bowl season outcomes all that more difficult. But everyone playing the Confidence Points game is faced with the same circumstances.

All of those scenarios existed in 2022, as well, but the computer scored 616 out of a possible 816 points (71.54%) that year, after only scoring 350 out of the possible 703-point perfect (49.8%). in 2021. The computer did 72% in 2020, and 69% in 2019.

Here is how the computer (Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com) ranks its' picks, based on its' projected margin of victory for each bowl winner.

Confidence Points - Prior Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017

Original upload: December 12.
Latest update: December 24 after Hawaii Bowl
Home Team in Bold, where applicable (1st round playoffs and Myrtle Beach Bowl)

Pts. Bowl Game Date Computer's Pick Pts. Won Pts. Lost
39. Gator 1/2 Mississippi 21.54 over Duke    
38. Independence 12/28 Army 14.96 over Louisiana Tech    
37. Playoff - 1st round 12/20 Notre Dame 14.71 over Indiana 37  
36. Playoff - 1st round 12/21 Texas 14.15 over Clemson 36  
35. Playoff - 1st round 12/21 Ohio State 13.34 over Tennessee 35  
34. First Responder 1/3 Texas State 12.46 over North Texas    
33. Armed Forces 12/27 Oklahoma 11.39 over Navy    
32. Military 12/28 NC State 10.69 over East Carolina    
31. Fenway 12/28 North Carolina 10.55 over UConn    
30. Bahamas 1/4 Liberty 10.46 over Buffalo    
29. Arizona 12/28 Miami (O) 9.16 over Colorado State    
28. Playoff - 1st round 12/21 Penn State 9.06 over So. Methodist 28  
27. 68 Ventures 12/26 Bowling Green 8.69 over Arkansas State    
26. Hawaii 12/24 USF 8.50 over San Jose State 26  
25. Sun 12/31 Louisville 8.25 or Washington    
24. Citrus 12/31 South Carolina 7.79 over Illinois    
23. Music City 12/30 Iowa 7.47 over Missouri    
22. Texas 12/31 LSU 7.14 over Baylor    
21. Pop Tarts 12/28 Miami (FLA) 6.79 over Iowa State    
20. Salute to Veterans 12/14 South Alabama 6.05 over Western Michigan 20  
19. Holiday 12/27 Syracuse 5.99 over Washington State    
18. Birmingham 12/27 Georgia Tech 5.75 over Vanderbilt    
17. ReliaQuest 12/31 Alabama 5.69 over Michigan    
16. Frisco 12/17 Memphis 5.10 over West Virginia 16  
15. New Mexico 12/28 TCU 4.65 over Louisiana    
14. New Orleans 12/19 Georgia Southern 4.49 over Sam Houston   14
13. GameAbove Sports 12/26 Pittsburgh 3.94 over Toledo    
12. Myrtle Beach 12/23 UTSA 3.32 over Coastal Carolina 12  
11. Rate 12/26 Kansas State 2.81 over Rutgers    
10. Liberty 12/27 Arkansas 2.42 over Texas Tech    
9. Boca Raton 12/18 James Madison 2.35 over Western Kentucky 9  
8. Duke's Mayo 1/3 Minnesota 2.04 over Virginia Tech    
7. Alamo 12/28 Colorado 2.03 over BYU    
6. Las Vegas 12/27 USC 1.95 over Texas A&M    
5. Cure 12/20 Jax State 1.72 over Ohio   5
4. Pinstripe 12/28 Boston College 1.48 over Nebraska    
3. Gasparilla 12/20 Florida 1.28 over Tulane 3  
2. L.A. Bowl 12/18 UNLV 0.20 over California 2  
1. Famous Idaho Potato 12/23 Fresno State 0.06 over Northern Illinois   1
Totals
224 20
Maximum Points Possible (perfect score=780) 760