News/Commentary

2023 Preseason Rankings Comparison

August 17, 2023 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

It is our tradition to provide a comparison of our Congrove Computer Rankings, preseason voter polls, and a selection of widely-read season preview magazines.

In 2014, the College Football Playoff replaced the Bowl Championship series which began in 1998. The BCS only picked the final two teams through an amalgamation of independent computer rankings and human input via polls such as the AP Sportswriters, the USA Today Coaches, and the short-lived Harris Poll.

The playoff expanded the selection to a Final Four, based on the cumulative decision of a 13-member committee of so-called "experts" who were selected because they had experience as head coaches and administrators. It's not the best method, but it's made a bunch of money. The playoff will grow to 12 teams beginning with the 2024 season.

There are often amazing similarities between the preseason "voter polls" (coaches, AP) and the preseason annuals which would seemingly defy logic. After all, there is an inherent difference between a "poll" and a "preseason magazine prediction". The magazines are typically picking where they think the teams will be at the end of the year. The humans are generally determining where the teams should be ranked to begin the year.

It is NOT the goal of The Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR) to try to match the rankings of the AP or Coaches' Poll, or any other rankings for that matter, but rather to present a more accurate and unbiased ranking.

The CCR Preseason Rankings are the "projections" of how teams should perform through the regular season, and the CCR Current Rankings are how the teams stack-up on day one of the season.

Here is a sampling of this season's rankings, listed in the ranking order of the "Human Consensus" to compare the computer's rankings. Teams ranked in the Top 25 of all 6 human components are all ranked before those teams that appear in 5-of-6, 4-of-6, etc.

Abbreviation descriptions
CCR Projected - Congrove Computer Rankings - Projected Final Regular Season Rankings.
CCR Open - Congrove Computer Rankings - Beginning of Season Rankings.
FWAA-NFF - Poll conducted by the Football Writers Association of America, in concert with the National Football Foundation and College Football Hall of Fame (CollegeFootballPoll.com's Dave Congrove is a voting member)
Human Cons. - Consensus of all the 'human vote' polls and magazines

RANK TEAM Super
16		 Coaches AP
Writers		 Athlon Lindy's Steele Human
Cons.		 CCR Proj. CCR Open
1 Georgia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00 5 2
2 Michigan 2 2 2 2 2 3 2.17 1 1
3 Ohio State 3 4 3 3 3 5 3.50 6 6
4 Alabama 4 3 4 4 4 4 3.83 8 11
5 LSU 5 5 5 6 5 9 5.83 20 9
6 USC 6 6 6 5 10 7 6.67 2 3
7 Penn State 7 7 7 8 8 6 7.17 16 10
8 Florida State 9 8 8 7 6 8 7.67 3 4
9 Clemson 8 9 9 12 11 2 8.50 10 13
10 Washington 10 11 10 9 7 14 10.17 7 7
11 Texas 12 12 11 11 9 11 11.00 9 12
12 Notre Dame 13 13 13 14 12 10 12.50 25 18
13 Tennessee 11 10 12 15 13 19 13.33 4 5
14 Utah 14 14 14 10 15 16 13.83 14 8
15 Oregon 15 15 15 13 18 15 15.17 31 15
16 Wisconsin 19 21 19 19 19 13 18.33 22 31
16 TCU 16 16 17 23 16 25 18.83 40 37
18 Oklahoma 22 19 20 16 21 20 19.67 69 50
19 Oregon State   18 18 17 17 18 14.67 30 30
20 Kansas State 17 17 16 18 14   16.40 19 19
21 Texas A&M 18 25 23 20   11 19.40 35 20
22 Mississippi 20 22 22 21 20   21.00 18 14
23 Iowa 24   25 24 22 17 22.40 21 29
24 North Carolina 21 20 21     21 20.75 11 16
25 Tulane   23 24 22 25   23.50 24 32
25 UTSA         23 24 23.50 13 22
27 Toledo           22 22.00 26 60
28 Oklahoma State 23           23.00 81 49
28 Pitt           23 23.00 41 39
30 Texas Tech   24         24.00 12 17
30 South Carolina         24   24.00 80 40
32 UCLA       25     25.00 28 23
32 FIU 25           25.00 128 129
  Boise State               15 23
  UCF               27 24
  Minnesota               36 21
  Duke               37 25

Go here for more preseason ratings comparisons.