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The 10th year of the College Football Playoff has a 75% chance of producing a first-time champion in the playoff era. Michigan is the No. 1 seed this year with Washington No. 2, Texas No. 3 and Alabama No. 4. None of those schools, except Alabama, has ever won the title game since the playoff system began in 2014. 'Bama has done it 3 times in the 2015, 2017 and 2020 seasons.
The preseason predictions, based on the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com, had forecast a Final Four of Michigan, USC, Florida State and Tennessee, with Michigan ultimately winning the title. USC slipped to 7-5 and Tennessee finished 7-5, while Florida State went 13-0 and should have been included in this year's field. The computer has correctly predicted nearly half of the teams to be involved in the playoff (19 out of 40).
Omitting Florida State is easily the worst decision of the committee in 10 years of the playoff. The second worse decision was to blame Jordan Travis for breaking his leg as the reason. It is an absolute, unquestionable, unpardonable failure by the committee.
It is obvious that the committee did everything it could to elevate an SEC team into the playoff, moving Alabama up in its rankings from 8 to 4. Beating Georgia did not prove Alabama was a top 4 team. All it proved was that Alabama upset Georgia. That said, Alabama is now the No. 2 betting favorite to win the National Championship, behind Michigan.
Selecting the field was a no-brainer. You had 3 very worthy P5 unbeatens, and a one-loss Texas team who handled Alabama in Tuscaloosa. We have had four undefeated national champions since the FBS College Football Playoff era began in 2014, and all of those have come in the last five seasons with Georgia accomplishing that feat last year to match Alabama (2020), LSU (2019) and Clemson (2018).
In order of proper seeding, the field should have been Michigan, Washington, Florida State and Texas. That would have put Michigan and Washington in the Rose Bowl for a traditional Big Ten-PAC 12 matchup, and Florida State-Texas in New Orleans.
That brings us to another team that is noticeably absent from this year's Final Four - Georgia. The Bulldogs were looking to make it a 3-peat as National Champs, and a 29-game winning streak had them on track to do so until Alabama pulled off the 27-24 upset in the SEC title game.
The committee then matches - against each other - the two teams that are the most upset with the committee - Florida State and Georgia - in the Orange Bowl. Did they really think this was some great olive branch, a big draw? No, it's another slap in the face. We predict that neither Florida State or Georgia will care, but the media will talk incessantly about the 'Snub Bowl'.
We could go on-and-on-and-on about the injustice of this, but we will resist the nagging temptation.
We will, however, insert that we find it asinine that they call this the 2024 College Football Playoff Championship Game when the game decides the 2023 season. It's not about the calendar year of the game date - it's about the season for which it crowns the champion.
Michigan is back for a third straight year. Washington is making its first since 2016 and just its second all time. Texas is making its first appearance. Alabama is back for the 8th time, having only missed 2014 and 2019.
To indicate how closed-door the playoff format has been, Texas becomes just the 15th different team in ten years to be a part of the 4-team field. In the last 5 years, only 5 new teams have been involved - Cincinnati, Michigan, TCU and Washington. That's an average of 1 out of 4 every year. And only 5 different teams have won the title in 10 years.
By contrast, 16 different teams appeared in the BCS Championship game over its 16 seasons and 12 different schools won the title.
The semifinals take place this season on New Year's Day with Michigan and Alabama in the Rose Bowl, followed by Texas and Washington in the Sugar Bowl. The winners will meet at NRG Stadium in Houston at 8:30 eastern time on Monday, January 8.
SEC teams have taken 6 of the 9 playoff national championships, and 13 of the last 17 over-all. Alabama has won 6 titles since 2009. ACC schools have taken 3 titles since 2013. Ohio State is the only school outside the SEC or ACC to win a national championship since Texas in 2005.
In addition to the Florida State-Georgia matchup in the Orange Bowl, the other New Year's Six games have Liberty facing Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, Penn State vs. Ole Miss in the Peach, and Ohio State vs. Missouri in the Cotton.
| College Football Playoff Title Game Results | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Won | Pts. | Lost | Pts. |
| 2014 | Ohio State | 42 | Oregon | 20 |
| 2015 | Alabama | 45 | Clemson | 40 |
| 2016 | Clemson | 35 | Alabama | 31 |
| 2017 | Alabama (OT) | 26 | Georgia | 23 |
| 2018 | Clemson | 44 | Alabama | 16 |
| 2019 | LSU | 42 | Clemson | 25 |
| 2020 | Alabama | 52 | Ohio State | 24 |
| 2021 | Georgia | 33 | Alabama | 18 |
| 2022 | Georgia | 65 | TCU | 7 |
Of this year's participants, Alabama is 9-4 in playoff games, including a 3-3 mark in the championship, while Michigan is 0-2 in playoff games, Washington is 0-1, and Texas is 0-0.
Washington has been crowned 4 times as national champs by NCAA Recognized selectors, while Texas has 9, Michigan has 18 and Alabama has 24.
Since 1993, the Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR) has awarded 1 title to Texas, 0 to Washington or Michigan, and 6 to Alabama.
In all, 41 bowl games will take place in this postseason. The national championship clash gives us a 42nd game to watch, but is not a bowl game.
The computer expects a whopping 14 bowl games to be decided by double-digit points, while it has 8 games with margins of 2.99 or less, and none under a single point.
Predicted margins range from 29.60 for Oregon over Liberty, to 1.26 for Miami (Ohio) over Appalachian State.
There are zero rematches of games from the 2023 regular season.
There are 11 pairings of teams that have never played each other.
There are 13 matchups of teams that haven't met for 20 years or longer.
Last Update: January 2 (all bowls)
| Conference | W-L | Games | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAC | 4-2 | 6 | .667 |
| Independents | 3-2 | 5 | .600 |
| American |
4-3 | 7 | .571 |
| ACC | 5-4 | 9 | .556 |
| Big 10 |
5-4 | 9 | .556 |
| SEC | 6-5 | 11 | .545 |
| CUSA | 3-3 | 6 | .500 |
| MWC | 3-4 | 7 | .428 |
| PAC-12 | 3-4 | 7 | .428 |
| Sun Belt |
3-4 | 7 | .428 |
| Big 12 |
2-6 | 8 | .250 |
| NOTE: CFP Championship game does not count in bowl standings | |||
Abandoning your team for a bowl game was once unthinkable. Now, it has become commonplace among athletes who hope to draw a big pay day in the NFL. There's also the transfer portal which has grown by more than 1,100 athletes since the end of the regular season.
We found a website that is doing an excellent job of keeping up with all the hold-outs and transfers. USC quarterback Caleb Williams in already among the opt-outs.
The worst matchup of a bowl game this year when you use the combined Congrove Computer Rankings of the participants is No. 88 Georgia State vs. No. 83 Utah State (171 combined ranking) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Second place goes to No. 87 Arkansas State vs. No. 79 Northern Illinois (166 combined ranking) in the Camellia Bowl.
The Famous Idaho Potato had the second-worst matchup of 2021 between No. 85 Wyoming and No. 74 Kent State (159 combined ranking).
Last year, the worst matchup had a combined ranking of 189 with No. 106 Rice clashing with No. 83 Southern Miss in the Lending Tree Bowl (now the 68 Ventures Bowl). And second place went to the Quick Lane Bowl with No. 89 Bowling Green against No. 88 New Mexico State for a 177 combined ranking.
2021's worst matchup was 91st-ranked Old Dominion vs. No. 72 Tulsa (163 combined ranking) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Liberty - Memphis is literally at home when the Tigers will host Iowa State.
68 Ventures - South Alabama will play Eastern Michigan in the stadium that the Jaguars called home until their on-campus venue opened in September of 2020.
Fenway - Boston College is 15 minutes from Fenway where the Eagles will battle SMU.
LA Bowl - UCLA will be about a half-hour from its campus to take on Boise State.
Gasparilla - UCF will face Georgia Tech in Tampa at Raymond James, which is about 2 hours from the Knight's' campus in East Orlando.
Birmingham - Duke will face Troy, a school that is about 2-1/2 hours SSE of Birmingham.
Duke's Mayo - North Carolina will bus a little over 2 hour to get to Charlotte to take on West Virginia.
Holiday - USC will head about 2-1/2 hours south while Louisville travels roughly 2,050 miles.
Pinstripe - Rutgers is about an hour from Yankee Stadium where the Scarlet Knights will face Miami (FL).
Other schools are playing bowl games in their home state, but heir campuses aren't necessarily that close to the bowl venue.
These bowl games will be featuring teams that have never previously played each other.
Myrtle Beach - Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
Cure - Miami (O) vs. Appalachian State
Frisco - Marshall vs. UTSA
Famous Idaho Potato - Utah State vs. Georgia State
Armed Forces - James Madison vs. Air Force
68 Ventures - South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Hawaii - Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State
Holiday - USC vs. Louisville
Pop-Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) - NC State vs. Kansas State
Peach - Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta - Oregon vs. Liberty
New Orleans - Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana. The Gamecocks the only previous meeting (that we could find), 28-14 in 2000.
LA Bowl - UCLA won only meeting 38-7 at UCLA in 1999
Independence - California vs. Texas Tech. Only meeting was a 45-31 Texas Tech win in the 2004 Holiday Bowl.
First Responder - Texas State vs. Rice. Teams split 4 meetings with the Owls winning in 1920 and 1987, and the Bobcats prevailing in 1923 and 1986.
Guaranteed Rate - Kansas vs UNLV. These teams each won on their own turf when they split the only previous meetings in 2002 and 2003.
Military - Virginia Tech is 5-4 vs. Tulane, but the last meeting was 1989.
Duke's Mayo - UNC vs. West Virginia. The teams split their previous two meetings which also came in bowl games. The Mountaineers won this game in 2008 when it was called the Meineke Bowl, and the Tar Heels captured the 1997 Gator Bowl.
Fenway - SMU vs. Boston College. The only previous meeting was a 1986 SMU home win.
Pinstripe - Rutgers vs. Miami (FL). The former Big East rivals haven't met since the 'Canes left for the ACC in 2004. Rutgers was happy to see them go since they were 0-11 by an average score of 45.8 to 10.4.
Alamo - The teams split their only two meetings, a home-and-home agreement in 1988 and 1989, with each team winning at home. Oklahoma had never played in this bowl until 2021. Two years later, they're back. Arizona has played here once, a 36-10 loss to Oklahoma State in 2010.
Sun - Notre Dame is 0-2 vs. Oregon State with both previous meetings in bowl games in Arizona (2000 season Fiesta and 2004 Insight). Both were blowouts.
Cotton - Ohio State is 10-1-1 all-time vs. Missouri, but they haven't met since 1998 and they've never met in a bowl game. Mizzou's only win came in 1976.
Music City - Auburn vs. Maryland. The Tigers are 2-1 vs. the Terps with all games played at Auburn in 1952, 1958 and 1983. The only Maryland win came in 1952. They have never met in a bowl game.
New Mexico - Fresno State vs. New Mexico State. These teams have met 19 times. Fresno State has won 18 of those. However, it will be the first meeting in a bowl game. NMSU head coach Jerry Kill has revived a program long-mired in bad football. Fresno State head coach Jeff Tedford is on a personal health leave of absence.
Birmingham - Troy vs. Duke. These teams had a home-and-home in 2013 and 2014 with Duke winning both. Don't be surprised if this goes the other way with the Trojans (11-2) practically playing a home game against the Blue Devils (7-5) who will be without their head coach, and lost 4 of their last 6 games.
Quick Lane - Bowling Green vs Minnesota. Gophers were 5-7 and gained entry as the 82nd team, thanks to its Academic Progress Rate (APR). MAC and Big Ten schools play all the time and the Big Ten has won 85% of the 375 games played, including a 4-1 mark in bowl meetings, BUT the lone bowl win for the MAC was BGSU over Northwestern, 28-24, in 2003 when Detroit hosted the Motor City Bowl. These teams are 2-2 in 4 previous meetings. BGSU upset Minnesota 14-10 in the regular season in 2021.
Arizona - Toledo vs. Wyoming. The teams split their only previous meetings, a home-and-home agreement in 2010 and 2012. The visitors won both games.
ReliaQuest - Wisconsin vs. LSU. The Tigers are 3-1 in the series, but the Badgers won the last meeting in 2016. LSU hasn't been to Tampa since 2014 and Wisconsin hasn't since 2015.
Fiesta - Oregon vs. Liberty. The 11-2 Ducks meet the 13-0 Flames. The computer is predicting a nearly 30-point blowout, but the oddsmakers only set the opening line at 14.5
Rose - Michigan vs. Alabama. The location arrangement of the playoff is messed up. This game belongs in New Orleans, while Washington vs. Texas should be in the Rose. These teams have met 5 times, and all came between 1988 and 2020. This will be their 5th meeting in a bowl game, and all five have been different bowls. Alabama is 3-2 in the series. 'Bama won the 2019 season Citrus, the 1996 season Outback and the 2012 Cowboys Kickoff Classic in Arlington. Michigan won the 1999 season Orange and the 1987 season Hall of Fame Bowl.
Sugar - Washington vs. Texas. These teams have met 5 times, and all came between 1974 and 2022. This will be their 4th meeting in a bowl game, and all four have been in different bowls. Texas is 3-2 in the series. The teams had a regular season home-and-home arrangement in 1974 and 1975 with Texas taking both games. The Longhorns also won the 2001 Holiday Bowl, while the Huskies took the Alamo last year and the Sun Bowl in 1979.
We only had 2 games in this category a season ago.
Famous Toastery - Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky. These former CUSA members met 7 times from 2014 to 2021 with WKU winning 6 of those.
Boca Raton - Syracuse vs. USF. These former Big East foes met 10 times from 2005-2016 with USF winning 8 of those.
Gasparilla - Georgia Tech vs. UCF. These teams just complete a home-and-home contract in in 2020 and 2022 with UCF winning both by 17 or more. They met 3 times from 1996 to 2000 with Georgia Tech winning all 3.
Camellia - Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois. These teams met 8 times from 1990-2012 with NIU taking 7 of those. The last meeting came in 2012 in the Mobile-based bowl game which was also won by NIU.
Las Vegas - Northwestern vs. Iowa - These teams just played a bowl game in 2018 when Northwestern won the Holiday Bowl 31-20. They split meetings in Evanston in 1927 and 1981.
Texas - Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M - These former Big 12 foes have met 28 total times with the Aggies taking 18 of those. They also just met in the 2019 edition of this game with A&M winning 24-21.
Gator - Someone in bowl arrangement management must want this to be a rivalry. It isn't. Kentucky is 8-5 all-time vs Clemson, and the last three (now four) meetings are all bowl games (1993 Peach, 2006 and 2009 Music City, and now the Gator).
Liberty - Memphis vs. Iowa State. Seriously? This was the same location of their only previous meeting and it happened just 6 six years ago when the Cyclones won 21-20.
Orange - Georgia vs. Florida State. The media will hype the 'Snub Bowl'. No one else will care, and the stars won't play. Georgia is 6-4 all-time vs FSU, but they haven't met since Georgia won the 2003 Sugar Bowl, which was the first meeting since a 17-17 tie in the 1984 Florida Citrus Bowl. FSU went 4-0 in the 60's. UGA went 5-0 in the 50's.
Citrus - It's Orlando, so fans will like the destination. These teams have played three neutral location games and 2 were in bowl games. Iowa won the 1982 Peach, while Tennessee won the 2014 season Gator (TaxSlayer) and the 1987 Kickoff Classic in Giants Stadium that Tennessee won on a 20-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.
Massachusetts - Joined FBS in 2012. Played in 1964 Tangerine Bowl when that game was a College Division game. Lost 14-13 to East Carolina.
Jacksonville State - 1st season in FBS
James Madison - 2nd season in FBS
Texas State - 12th season in FBS
Of the teams that made it this year, these had the longest wait to get back to a bowl game:
Arizona, 2017
Arkansas State, 2019
Georgia Tech, 2018
Rutgers, 2014
South Florida, 2018
UNLV, 2013
This teams have the longest continuing current streak of bowl absence:
Akron, 2017
Colorado State, 2017
Louisiana-Monroe, 2012
Nebraska, 2016
New Mexico, 2016
Stanford, 2018
Vanderbilt, 2018
These teams have the longest continuing current streaks of bowl appearances:
Georgia, 27
Oklahoma, 25
Wisconsin, 22
Alabama, 20
Clemson, 20
Oklahoma State, 18
These teams have the most consecutive bowl victories (last season of a bowl loss in parenthesis).
NOTE: We do not count the CFP Championship as a bowl game as it exists for the sole purpose of pairing the winners of two specific bowl games that are counted. All teams listed are playing in a bowl game this year, unless otherwise noted.
Alabama, 8 (2014)
Minnesota, 6 (2013)
Troy, 5 (2009)
Air Force, 4 (2015)
Duke, 4 (2014)
Fresno State, 4 (2014)
Georgia, 4 (2018)
New Mexico State, 4 (Never, 4-0-1)
Northwestern, 4 (2015)
Ohio, 4 (2016)
Buffalo, 3 (2018) - Uninvited this year
Texas A&M, 3 (2017)
Wisconsin, 3 (2019)
Winning streaks snapped last year:
- Kentucky had a 4-bowl winning streak end with a 21-0 loss to Iowa in the Music City Bowl for the 'Cats first bowl loss since 2017.
- Syracuse had a 4-bowl winning streak snapped that dated back to 2004 as the Orange lost 28-20 to Minnesota in the Pinstripe Bowl.
- Texas had a 4-bowl winning streak broken that dated back to 2014 as the Longhorns fell 27-20 to Washington in the Alamo Bowl.
- Liberty lost a bowl game for the first time ever (3-1) with a 21-19 defeat at the hands of Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl.
- Louisiana had its 3-bowl winning streak snapped in a 24-17 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl for its first bowl loss since 2018.
- Kansas had its 3-bowl winning streak end in a 55-53 loss in triple-OT to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl for its first bowl loss since 2003.
- Wyoming's 3-bowl winning streak, which dated back to 2016, was ended in a 30-27 overtime loss to Ohio in the Arizona Bowl.
These teams have the most consecutive bowl losses (last season of a bowl win in parenthesis).
NOTE: We do not count the CFP Championship as a bowl game as it exists for the sole purpose of pairing the winners of two specific bowl games that are counted. All teams listed are playing in a bowl game this year, unless otherwise noted.
Northern Illinois, 7 (2011)
UTEP, 7 (1967) - Uninvited this year
Indiana, 6 (1991) - Uninvited this year
Michigan, 6 (2015)
North Texas, 6 (2013) - Uninvited this year
Colorado, 4 (2004) - Uninvited this year
Colorado State, 4 (2013) - Uninvited this year
Miami, FLA, 4 (2016)
Missouri, 4 (2014)
UTSA, 4 (Never)
Virginia Tech, 4 (2016)
Losing streaks snapped last year:
- Eastern Michigan's 4-bowl losing streak, which dated back to 1987, ended with the Eagles' 41-27 win over San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
- Toledo ended a 4-bowl losing streak with a 21-9 win over Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Charlotte 0-1 - Uninvited this year
South Alabama, 0-3
UTSA, 0-4
(Minimum 20 appearances and .600 win pct.)
NOTE: We do not count the CFP Championship as a bowl game as it exists for the sole purpose of pairing the winners of two specific bowl games that are counted. All teams listed are playing in a bowl game this year, unless otherwise noted.
Utah, 18-8 (.692)
Boise State, 13-7 (.650)
Oklahoma State, 21-12 (.636)
Alabama, 43-24-3 (.636)
Georgia, 35-20-3 (.629)
Florida State, 29-17-2 (.625)
Mississippi, 25-15 (.625)
USC, 35-21 (.625)
Syracuse, 16-10-1 (.611)
Penn State, 31-19-2 (.612)
Bubbling under .600:
Mississippi State, 15-11 (.577) - Uninvited this year
Oklahoma, 31-24-1 (.563)
NOTE: We do not count the CFP Championship as a bowl game as it exists for the sole purpose of pairing the winners of two specific bowl games that are counted. All teams listed are playing in a bowl game this year, unless otherwise noted.
Alabama, 43
Georgia, 35
USC, 35
Oklahoma, 31
Penn State, 31
Texas, 31
Tennessee, 30
Florida State, 29
LSU, 27
Nebraska, 26 - Uninvited this year
Georgia Tech, 25
Mississippi, 25
Ohio State, 25
Auburn, 24
Clemson, 24
Florida, 24 - Uninvited this year
Michigan, 21
Oklahoma State, 21
This season had 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army played two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that did NOT play a FCS program, 7 were in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three were Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
The FBS programs were 114-4 this year against the FCS schools. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,800-152 (.922) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Here are the FCS wins in 2023, so far:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
GEORGIA - Had Won 29 straight over-all. Has won 25 straight home games, and 15 straight true road games.
Last: Lost 27-24 to Alabama in SEC Championship game in Atlanta on Saturday, December 2
Next: Plays Florida State in the Orange Bowl on Saturday, December 30.
WASHINGTON - Won 20 straight over-all
Last: 34-31 win over Oregon in PAC-12 Championship game in Las Vegas on Friday, December 1.
Next: Plays Texas in the Sugar Bowl on Monday, January 1.
MICHIGAN - Won 24 straight conference games.
Last: 26-0 over Iowa in the B1G Championship in Indianapolis on Saturday, December 2
Next: Plays Alabama in the Rose Bowl on Monday, January 1.
VANDERBILT - Lost 10 straight over-all.
Last: 48-24 loss at Tennessee on Saturday, November 25.
Next: Season complete
STANFORD - Lost 9 straight home games.
Last: 56-23 home loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, November 25
Next: Season complete
TEMPLE - Lost 14 straight true road games.
Last: 45-21 home loss to Memphis on Saturday, November 25
Next: Season complete
ULM - Lost 10 straight over-all, lost 10 straight conference games.
Last: 52-21 loss at Louisiana on Saturday, November 25
Next: Season complete