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This is the final week of regular season football in the FCS for all of the teams and conferences that are playoff-eligible. Only 3 of 10 automatic qualifier bids to the FCS Playoff have been secured. Of the 7 AQ bids to be determined, 3 of this will be decided in de facto championship games - Big Sky, NEC and UAC (ASUN-WAC coalition). The other four conferences will rely on this week's games to shake-out the final standings, or at least un-complicate the tie-breaker procedures.
Furman (SoCon), South Dakota State (MVFC) and Nicholls (Southland) have joined the Playoff party. They're just waiting to see who else will show up.
This week's preview predicts the remaining AQ bid winners, provides the matchups of the games that matter most, and gives each conference's pool of teams that are worthy of consideration for the 14 at-large bids.
Overall, 24 teams advance to the FCS playoff, and a small handful of others still have annual football classics to play, in addition to the SWAC Championship and the MEAC-SWAC Celebration Bowl.
| Conference | AQ Clinched | AQ Predicted |
|---|---|---|
| ASUN-WAC (UAC) | Austin Peay | |
| Big Sky | Montana State | |
| Big South-OVC | Gardner-Webb | |
| CAA | Delaware | |
| MVFC | South Dakota State | |
| NEC | Merrimack | |
| Patriot | Lafayette | |
| Pioneer | Davidson | |
| SoCon | Furman | |
| Southland | Nicholls |
Either by making our AQ prediction wrong, or because they are worthy of an at-large bid, here is our list of schools that aren't dead yet. These are listed by conference, and in order of likelihood.
Big Sky: Montana, Idaho, plus Sacramento State or UC Davis
Big South/WAC: UT-Martin, Eastern Illinois
CAA: Albany, Richmond, Villanova, Rhode Island, Wm. & Mary
MVFC: South Dakota, NDSU, UNI, Illinois State, Youngstown State, North Dakota, SIU
SoCon: Mercer, Western Carolina, Chattanooga
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Butler, Drake
Southland: Incarnate Word
UAC: Central Arkansas
The season ended last weekend for some teams, and even sooner for Northwestern State.
Kennesaw State (3-6) - Moves to the FBS next season and enters CUSA.
Lindenwood (3-7, 2-4 Big South/OVC) - Remains ineligible for FCS playoffs through 2025.
Mercer (8-3, 6-23 SoCon) - Awaits possible at-large selection to FCS playoffs.
Stony Brook (0-10, 0-8 CAA) - Ends season on a 12-game losing streak, 2nd longest in the FCS to Western Illinois' 23.
Tarleton State (8-3, 4-2 UAC) - Ineligible for FCS playoffs until 2024 (next season).
Northwestern State, LA (0-6, 0-2) - The Demons shut down the program early after the tragic shooting death of a beloved player, Ronnie Caldwell, which also led to the resignation of Brad Laird, the grief-stricken head coach.
Texas A&M-Commerce (1-9, 1-5) - Was scheduled to end its season this week at Northwestern State which, as noted above, shut its schedule down early. This is another team that will not be eligible for the FCS playoffs until 2026.
With computer projection, based on the Congrove Computer Rankings.
Montana State (8-2, 6-1) at MONTANA (9-1, 6-1) - de facto championship game. Winner gets AQ bid. Loser gets at-large bid.
Computer Pick: Montana State by 5.99
Key games for possible at-large bids:
Sacramento State (7-3, 4-3) at UC DAVIS (6-4, 4-3) - This could wind up being a play-in game for an at-large bid. Loser is likely out.
Computer Pick: UC Davis by 0.92
Idaho State (3-7, 3-4) at IDAHO (7-3, 5-2) - Vandals can help themselves land an at-large bid with a win.
Computer Pick: Idaho by 20.87
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Charleston Southern (4-6, 2-3) at GARDNER-WEBB (6-4, 5-0) - The Runnin' Bulldogs are in with a win, and completely out of the playoff with a loss.
Computer Pick: Gardner-Webb by 14.44
UT-Martin (8-2, 5-1 BS/OVC) at SAMFORD (5-5, 4-4 SoCon) - This is a non-conference game with no bearing on AQ bid. UT-Martin gets the bid if Gardner-Webb loses to Charleston Southern. However, the Skyhawks will also want to win to improve their position as an at-large invite.
Computer Pick: Samford by 1.43
Key games for possible at-large bids:
Eastern Illinois (7-3, 3-2) at Robert Morris (5-5, 3-2) - A win would surely improve the odds of Eastern Illinois receiving a bid.
Computer Pick: Eastern Illinois by 2.84
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All 4 of the above teams are 6-1.
Per the CAA, here are the tiebreaker scenarios for determining the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA FCS playoffs:
Note: Any teams that finish tied for first place will be considered Co-Champions. The tiebreakers are solely for determining the conference’s automatic qualifier to the NCAA FCS playoffs.
If UAlbany, Delaware and Richmond finish tied for first at 7-1: There were not head-to-head meetings between all three teams. The only common opponent among the three teams was Stony Brook and all three teams were 1-0. The next tiebreaker is point differential in conference games with a 21-point maximum per game differential. Heading into this Saturday’s games, Delaware is +97, UAlbany is +92 and Richmond is +58.
Should the point differential finish in a tie, the next tiebreaker would be the best combined conference ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
If UAlbany, Richmond and Villanova finish tied for first at 7-1: There were not head-to-head meetings between all three teams. All three teams faced Rhode Island and Stony Brook and all three teams were 1-0 against each of them. The next tiebreaker is point differential in conference games with a 21-point maximum per game differential. Heading into this Saturday’s games, Villanova is +96, UAlbany is +92 and Richmond is +58.
Should the point differential finish in a tie, the next tiebreaker would be the best combined conference ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
If UAlbany and Delaware finish tied for first at 7-1: There was not a head-to-head meeting between UAlbany and Delaware. Both teams had wins over Villanova and Towson, but Delaware was 1-0 vs. New Hampshire and UAlbany was 0-1, giving Delaware the tiebreaker and the automatic bid.
If UAlbany and Villanova finish tied for first at 7-1: UAlbany defeated Villanova in the head-to-head meeting, giving UAlbany the tiebreaker and the automatic bid.
If Delaware and Richmond finish tied for first at 7-1: There was not a head-to-head meeting between Delaware and Richmond. Richmond was 1-0 vs. Elon and Delaware was 0-1, giving Richmond the tiebreaker and the automatic bid.
If Richmond and Villanova finish tied for first at 7-1: There was not a head-to-head meeting between Richmond and Villanova. Both teams had wins over common opponents Rhode Island, Elon, North Carolina A&T and Stony Brook. The next tiebreaker is point differential in conference games with a 21-point maximum per game differential. Heading into this Saturday’s games, Villanova is +96 and Richmond is +58
.
Should the point differential finish in a tie, the next tiebreaker would be the best combined conference ranking among the teams in points scored and points allowed.
Related games this week:
Monmouth (4-6, 3-4) at ALBANY (8-3, 6-1) - Note that Albany is playing a 12th regular season game because it played at Hawaii.
Computer Pick: Albany by 3.53
Villanova (8-2, 6-1) at DELAWARE (8-2, 6-1) - Obviously, the winner gets a leg-up at 7-1.
Computer Pick: Delaware by 6.16
Richmond (7-3, 6-1) at WILLIAM & MARY (6-4, 4-3) - This is the fourth-most played game in college football at 133 games and it's tied at 64-64-5.
Computer Pick: William & Mary by 2.01
If the above projections become reality, Delaware gets the AQ bid as it leaves Delaware and Albany as the only 7-1 teams.
Possible at-large bids await any of the four tied teams that doesn't win the AQ bid, plus William & Mary and Rhode Island who are each 6-4.
Key games for possible at-large bids:
Rhode Island (6-4, 4-3) at TOWSON (4-6, 3-4) - Towson had upset road wins over New Hampshire and William & Mary.
Computer Pick: Rhode Island by 1.89
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South Dakota State clinched the AQ bid this past Saturday with a 34-0 romp at Youngstown State.
Possible at-large bids:
South Dakota (8-2, 6-1) - Favored by 27.71 at Western Illinois
North Dakota State (7-3, 4-3) - Favored by 6.11 at Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2) - Underdog by 6.11 at home to North Dakota State
Illinois State (6-4, 4-3) - Underdog by 1.49 at North Dakota
Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3) - Favored by 15.87 at Murray State
North Dakota (6-4, 4-3) - Favored by 1.49 at home over Illinois State
Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-4) - Favored by 17.63 at home vs. Indiana State
If the above projections become reality, at-large bids would be a lock for South Dakota at 9-2 and North Dakota State at 8-3. The committee would have to consider Youngstown State and North Dakota at 7-4. Southern Illinois would be doubtful at 7-4, due to a 4-4 conference mark.
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Duquesne (6-4, 5-1) at MERRIMACK (5-5, 4-2) - de facto championship game. Winner gets AQ bid. Loser gets left out completely.
Possible at-large bids: None
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Lafayette and Holy Cross are both 4-1, but the Leopards own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Crusaders with a 38-35 win at HC on October 21.
Lafayette (8-2, 4-1) at LEHIGH (2-8, 1-4) - The schools are separated by just 15 miles. "The Rivalry" is the most played rivalry game in college football. Since 1884, they have met 158 times. Lafayette leads the series by just a 9-game margin of 81-72-5 after taking 3 of the last 4. Lafayette claimed all four of its playoff appearances between 2004 and 2013 under Frank Tavani. This is the program's second season under John Troxell (10-8, 5-3).
Computer Pick: Lafayette by 9.87
Georgetown (5-5, 3-2) at HOLY CROSS (6-4, 4-1) Holy Cross has had an unprecedented run of 4 straight FCS playoff appearance, bowing out in the 1st round in 2019 and 2020 before advancing to the 2nd round in 2021 and 2022.
Computer Pick: Holy Cross by 21.45
Possible at-large bids: An outside chance for Lafayette with a loss. If Lafayette gets the AQ bid, then Holy Cross has zero chance with a loss and only a slim chance with a win.
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Davidson and Drake entered last weeks games tied at 6-0 with St. Thomas at 5-1. David son and Drake don't play each other, and St. Thomas (MN) is ineligible. That all means Drake gets the AQ bid with a win, but the computer sees Davidson rescuing the bid with the combination of a Davidson win AND a Drake loss. Lo and behold, the latter results are exactly the scenario predicted by the computer.
Drake (7-3, 7-0) at BUTLER (7-3, 5-2) - Which Bulldog will have more bite?
Computer Pick: Butler by 14.43
Dayton (3-7, 1-6) at DAVIDSON (7-3, 6-1) - It's been a down season for the Flyers under first-year head coach Trevor Andrews, replacing the retired and highly successful Rick Chamberlain (104-48, 78-31 Pioneer).
Computer Pick: Davidson by 12.06
Possible at-large bids: Maybe Butler (with an upset of Drake). Maybe Drake either way. But highly doubtful that the conference will get an at-large bid as there will be a vast pool of qualified teams from stronger conferences.
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Furman has been waiting for everyone else to finish. The Paladins were the first to clinch an AQ bid with a 17-14 win at Chattanooga on November 4.
Possible at-large bids:
Mercer (8-3, 6-2) - regular season completed
Western Carolina (7-3, 5-2) - favored by 16.85 at VMI
Chattanooga (7-3, 6-2) - Underdogs by 43.62 at FBS member Alabama.
All 3 are ranked between 15th and 22nd by the computer, and between 16th and 24th by the coaches.
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Nicholls secured the bid this past weekend by knocking off Lamar, a week after winning at Incarnate Word.
Key games for possible at-large bids:
Incarnate Word (7-2, 4-1) at HOUSTON CHRISTIAN (5-4, 3-2) - UIW would almost surely be 8-2 if its home game vs NW State had not been canceled when the Demons halted their season. It's been a great first season under Clint Killough after G.J. Kinne took the Cardinals to the semifinals a year ago and then left for Texas State after just one season. If Incarnate Word wins this week, we would expect an at-large invite.
Computer Pick: Incarnate Word by 7.89
Possible at-large bids: Incarnate Word is the only Southland team that would be in-line for consideration, IF the Cardinals beat Houston Christian.
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Central Arkansas (7-3, 4-1) at AUSTIN PEAY (8-2, 5-0) - This is, in essence, a de facto conference championship game, even though the UAC is not recognized by the NCAA, but will be next year. The conference formed from a merger of the ASUN and WAC football schools and those two conferences share one AQ bid and it all comes down to this game.
Computer Pick: Austin Peay by 5.44.
Possible at-large bids: Loser of above
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Harvard (8-1, 5-1) at YALE (6-3, 4-2) - The 139th edition of "The Game" is a de facto championship game. Yale owns the tie-breaker over Dartmouth if both finish 5-2.
Computer Pick: Yale by 5.92
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Howard wins with a victory at home over Morgan State. NC Central must win at home over Delaware State AND have Morgan State upset Howard. Morgan State wins if the Bears upset Howard AND the Hornets upset the Eagles.
Morgan State (4-5, 3-1) at HOWARD (5-5, 3-1)
Computer Pick: Howard by 9.41
Delaware State at NC CENTRAL (8-2, 3-1)
Computer Pick: NC Central by 23.85
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Florida A&M clinched the East with a 42-28 win at Alabama A&M on November 4.
The West still has 3 teams in play, none of whom play each other this week. Grambling is idle and plays Southern in New Orleans on the 25th in the Bayou Classic.
Prairie View must simply defeat Alabama State, OR, as the computer is predicting, the Panthers clinch with a loss IF Jackson State defeats Alcorn State AND Southern defeat Grambling State.
Alcorn State needs to beat Jackson State AND have Alabama State defeat Prairie View A&M.
Grambling State needs to beat Southern AND have Alabama State defeat Prairie View A&M, AND Jackson State defeat Alcorn State.
Alabama State (6-3, 5-2 East) at PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (5-4, 5-2 West)
Computer Pick: Alabama State by 5.85
Alcorn State (6-4, 5-2 West) at JACKSON STATE (7-3, 5-2 East)
Computer Pick: Jackson State by 6.9
Grambling State ( 5-5, 4-3 West) vs. Southern (5-5 4-3 West) at New Orleans on November 25
Computer Pick: Southern by 0.13
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The final weekend features several of the longest-lasting, most-played rivalry games in college football.
THE RIVALRY - Lafayette at Lehigh for 159th meeting. Lafayette leads 81-72-5
THE GAME - Harvard at Yale for 139th meeting. Yale leads 69-61-8 and has won 4 of last 6
CAPITAL CUP - Richmond at William & Mary. 134th meeting. Tied 64-64-5. Richmond won 8 of 11
BRAWL OF THE WILD - Montana State at Montana. 122nd meeting. Griz 74-42-5. MSU has won 5 of 6
EMPIRE STATE BOWL - Columbia at Cornell. 110th meeting. Cornell 66-40-3. Columbia has won 4 of 5
This season has 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army playing two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that do NOT play a FCS program, 7 are in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three are Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
One FBC-FCS game took place last week with Holy Cross falling 17-14 at Army. There are 4 such games this week with Abilene Christian at Texas A&M, Chattanooga at Alabama, North Alabama at Florida State, and Sacred Heart at UConn.
The FBS programs are 110-4 this year against the FCS schools. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,796-152 (.922) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Here are the FCS wins in 2023, so far:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE - Won 24 straight over-all, 17 straight conference games, 8 straight road games.
Last: 34-0 win at Youngstown State on Saturday, November 11.
Next: Hosts Missouri State in regular season finale on Saturday, November 18.
MONTANA STATE - Won 26 straight home games.
Last: 57-14 home win over Eastern Washington on Saturday, November 11.
Next: Hosts Montana in regular season finale on Saturday, November 18.
WESTERN ILLINOIS - Lost 23 straight over-all, 17 straight conference games, and 10 straight home games.
Last: 27-6 loss at Indiana State on Saturday, November 11.
Next: Hosts South Dakota in season finale on Saturday, November 18.
WOFFORD - Had lost 16 straight road games, but won at The Citadel on Saturday.
Last: 11-3 win at The Citadel on Saturday, November 11.
Next: Hosts Furman in season finale on Saturday, November 18.
CAL POLY - Lost 16 straight true road games.
Last: Lost 41-30 at Sacramento State on Saturday, November 11.
Next: Hosts Weber State in season finale on Saturday, November 18.