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(Editor's Notes: On Thursday, Davidson was named the automatic qualifier of the Pioneer League on Friday after the Wildcats' home game with Stetson was canceled due to Covid issues within the Hatters' program. Davidson and San Diego each had 1 league loss and the Wildcats own the tie-breaker with the Toreros.
On Wednesday, The Missouri Valley Football Conference announced that the North Dakota-Youngstown State game was canceled due to Covid issues within the Fighting Hawk's program, making the South Dakota State-North Dakota State a de facto conference championship match.)
This coming Saturday is the final day of action before the NCAA announces the 16-team playoff field, and the schedule is rather sparse with just 19 games now on the docket.
Playoff teams will be announced this Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPNU, and the games begin April 24 with the championship scheduled for Sunday, May 16 at 2:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Still left to be determined are the champion autobids to the NCAA Playoff from four conferences - the CAA, Missouri Valley, Patriot and SoCon. Of those four conferences, only the Patriot will be staging an actual title game when Holy Cross (2-0) visits Bucknell 2-1 as a 4.75-point favorite, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com.
This past week saw Weber State clinch the Big Sky, Monmouth claim the Big South, Sacred Heart take the NEC, Jacksonville State capture the OVC and Sam Houston State seize the Southland.
Here are the key games this week that will help determine the remaining autobids:
CAA - Richmond at James Madison, Delaware at Villanova.
MVFC - South Dakota State at North Dakota State.
Patriot - Holy Cross at Bucknell (Conference title game).
SoCon - The Citadel at VMI, Mercer at Samford
The SWAC champion does not participate in NCAA Playoff. Likely teams to make it to this year's conference title game are Alabama A&M and Alabama State in the East, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Prairie View A&M or Southern in the West. SWAC teams will not finish the regular season until April and the conference championship game will be held on May 1 on the campus of the highest-seeded team.
Top games this week in the SWAC are Alabama A&M vs. Alabama State in Birmingham in the Magic City Classic, Prairie View A&M at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Grambling State vs. Southern in the Bayou Classic which is being held in Shreveport for the first time since 1973 and just the second time in the 72-game history of the series.
In the CAA, Richmond (3-0, 3-0 CAA) and James Madison (4-0, 2-0 CAA) had their home-and-home series wiped out. Richmond was scheduled to make the trip first so that's the game being made good. The winner of this de facto division championship game takes the South division and the computer favors the homestanding Dukes by a whopping 24.49 points.
The CAA North division title will go to the winner of the Delaware (4-0, 3-0) game at Villanova (2-1, 2-1). The computer has the Wildcats at home by 10.59 points. Villanova has won 13 of the last 134 meetings with the last win for the Blue Hens occurring in 2011 when the game was played at a neutral site in Chester, PA.
The divisions weren't set up to allow for a conference championship game, but only to make scheduling more regional. The automatic bid goes to the team in the entire conference with the best over-all conference record based on winning percentage.
If the computer picks are correct, that would be the perfect scenario for the NCAA. It would leave Delaware, 'Nova and Richmond each with 1 loss and James Madison would be the only undefeated squad in the conference.
South Dakota State (4-1, 4-1) visits North Dakota State (6-1, 5-1) as a 23.90-point computer underdog in what becomes a de facto conference championship game now that the North Dakota-Youngstown State game has been canceled. Here's how the MVFC explained the tie-breaker:
If North Dakota State beats South Dakota State, NDSU will earn the league’s automatic bid. In that scenario, NDSU will be tied with UND and Missouri State and the Bison beat each team. If South Dakota State wins, the Jackrabbits are the AQ. MVFC tri-champs SDSU-UND-MSU would not all have played one another (and even though UND beat SDSU, the tiebreaker would be broken by record against common opponents due to the imbalanced schedules of each team). SDSU would be 3-0 against common foes (NDSU, WIU, SIU), while UND and MSU will have 2-1 records against common foes (as both lost to NDSU).
North Dakota would have been the conference's automatic qualifier if it played and won this Saturday, and NDSU lost.
This one is cut and dry as the conference is staging a championship play-in game this Saturday with Holy Cross (2-0, 2-0) visiting Bucknell (2-1, 2-1). We don't know why the team with the lesser record is getting to play host, but the computer still favors the Crusaders over the Bison by 4.75 points.
VMI (5-1, 5-1) gets another chance to clinch the conference's automatic bid by simply winning at The Citadel on Saturday and the Keydets are a slim 1.13-point computer pick. Mercer (5-5, 5-2) gets in if VMI loses to The Citadel and the Bears win at Samford, but the computer has Mercer listed as a 9.31-point underdog.
If all of the scenarios play out as the computer predicts, here's one take on how the NCAA 16-team playoff field would be set.
*Big Sky - Weber State
*Big South - Monmouth
CAA - James Madison
MVFC - North Dakota State
*NEC - Sacred Heart
*OVC - Jacksonville State
Patriot - Holy Cross
*Pioneer - Davidson
SoCon - VMI
*Southland - Sam Houston State
*-Automaitc qualifier
Eastern Washington
Kennesaw State
North Dakota
South Dakota State
Delaware
Austin Peay
The computer has 5 upsets picks this weeks. Last week, the computer's upset picks went 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS. Over the past 4 weeks, they are a cumulative 14-10 straight up and 16-8 against the spread.
Here are this week's upset picks:
- Prairie View A&M by 0.12 over ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (-1)
- VILLANOVA by 10.59 over Delaware (-7.5)
- Grambling State by 0.46 over Southern (-7.5) - Game at Shreveport
- NORTHERN ARIZONA by 1.45 over Idaho (-3)
- Mississippi Valley State by 1.03 over TEXAS SOUTHERN (-3)