Preview: AQ Bids on the Line for FCS Playoffs

November 11, 2024 by CollegeFootballPoll.com Staff

This week signals the end of the season for Marist (1-9, 1-6 Pioneer), Sacred Heart (4-6, Independent), West Georgia (3-7, 0-7 UAC) and Youngstown State (3-8, 2-5).

The Foxes host Presbyterian (4-6, 2-4 Pioneer), the Pioneers visit fellow independent Merrimack (4-5), the Wolves visit Utah Tech (1-9, 1-5 UAC), and the Penguins host Northern Iowa (2-8, 0-6).

It's the penultimate weekend of the regular season for virtually everyone else in the FCS.

SEE: Scores, Picks, Odds

The 2024-25 FCS Championship Championship bracket selections will be aired live at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 24 on ESPNU. Ten teams automatically qualify for this year's playoffs via conference affiliation. An additional 14 teams earn at-large bids selected by the FCS Playoff Committee. The national championship will take place on Monday, January 6 in Frisco, Texas, where it has been held annually since the 2010-11 season.

We believe the most reliable place to wager on FCS games is FanDuel.com. No matter where you go, FCS odds are generally not published until the day of the game, so it's important to have done your research in advance. 

The Ivy League, along with the two HBCU conferences, the MEAC and SWAC, do not participate in the playoff by their own choosing. The Ivy League has no postseason, while the HBCU's have their own National Championship in the Celebration Bowl in Atlanta on December 14 at 12 Noon on ABC.

Jackson State (8-2, 6-0) would clinch the East division with a win on Saturday at Alabama State (5-4, 4-2), which is the only team that can catch the Tigers. Jackson State is favored by 4.85 points, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com.

Southern (6-4, 5-1) leads the West by two games since the Jaguars own the tie-breaker over Alcorn (5-5, 4-2). PVAMU is two games back and lost the head-to-head matchup, as well. Southern is a 12.29-point favorite to clinch the division title at home against Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Saturday if Alcorn State also loses its game at PVAMU and the Braves area 2.49-point underdog.

South Carolina State is a 3.68-point computer pick at Morgan State on Saturday to clinch the MEAC title for the first time since 2021.

Jackson State and Southern played for the title two years ago in Deion Sanders' last season as head coach at JSU before heading to Colorado. Last year, Florida A&M claimed its first SWAC title in just its third season in the conference with a win over Prairie View

So far, the only FCS Playoffs automatic qualifier is Mercer (9-1, 6-1) from the Southern Conference as the Bears lead three teams by 1 game, all of whom they have already defeated.

The Bears are one of the two FCS teams that visit a SEC school on Saturday as they head to Tuscaloosa for the unenviable task of facing Alabama as a whopping 51.99-point underdog, while Murray State goes to Lexington to take on Kentucky as a 51.86-point dog.

Montana State (10-0, 6-0) visits UC Davis (9-1, 6-0) for what becomes the de facto Big Sky Championship game this Saturday. The Bobcats, who are the only undefeated team in the FCS, are currently the No. 1 team in the Congrove Computer Rankings. They are 2.56-point favorites to win on Saturday.

The Aggies won a share of the title with Eastern Washington and Weber State in 2018 under former Boise State and Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins. Hawkins retired after the 2023 season, only to un-retire to take an administrative assistant role at Idaho State. UC Davis alum Tim Plough returned to take his first head coaching job after spending last year as the tight ends coach at Cal in the FBS.

UC Davis last made the playoffs in 2021. Montana State won its 16th Big Sky title in 2022, but its only FCS Championship title came 40 years ago in the 1984-1985 season. The Bobcats lost to North Dakota State in the 2021-22 season title game.

Montana State opened the 2024 season as a rare FCS road favorite against a FBS program, and a double-digit favorite at that (-13.5) over New Mexico. The computer came closer, picking the Bobcats by just 0.17, as they rallied for a 35-31 victory. The FCS weekly picks have been ultra-reliable, going 318-221 for 59% accuracy. Generally, a little over 50% is the benchmark for any computer algorithm. Of course, it's well under 50% for most humans which is why "the house" survives.

Abilene Christian (7-3, 6-1) and Tarleton (8-2, 5-1) both control their own destiny to the UAC title and they meet on Saturday in Stephenville with the Texans listed as a 4.98-point computer favorite, but those aren't the only teams still in the hunt. Eastern Kentucky needs two wins, but it won't matter if Tarleton doesn't beat Abilene. That's because the Colonels own the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Texans, but ACU has the heads-up tie-breaker over EKU.

Bucknell (5-5, 3-1) is tied with Holy Cross (4-6, 3-1) and Lehigh (6-3, 3-1) in the Patriot race, but the Bison can clinch the AQ berth with a road win over the Crusaders on Saturday because the Bison would have beaten each of the other two. However, Holy Cross is a 9.69-point computer favorite and must win the game to stay alive after falling to Lehigh this past Saturday which kept the Leopards alive.

Drake (7-1, 6-0) has a two-win lead over everybody else in the Pioneer and can clinch the AQ bid with a win on Saturday, and the Bulldogs are favored by 13.54 over Morehead State.

UIW (8-2, 5-0) gets the Southland's AQ bid with a win at SFA on Saturday, but a loss brings the Lumberjacks and Southeastern Louisiana back into the equation as each would finish 1-1 vs each other. The computer has SFA as a very slim 0.62-point favorite against the Cardinals.

The remaining, more complicated scenarios - according to NCAA.com - are as follows:

Big South-OVC

  • Southeast Missouri State can clinch the Big South-OVC bid with a Week 12 win over Western Illinois
    • AND 
      • UT Martin loses to Tennessee Tech

CAA

  • Richmond can clinch the CAA auto bid if it beats Hampton in Week 12
    • AND
      • Rhode Island loses to UAlbany
      • Stony Brook loses to New Hampshire
      • Villanova loses to Monmouth

*Delaware isn't eligible for the CAA auto bid, the CAA title, or the FCS Playoffs as the Blue Hens are in a transition year out of the FCS and into the FBS next season (CUSA). 

Ivy

  • Harvard can clinch the Ivy League title with a win over Penn
    • AND
      • Dartmouth loses to Cornell

MVFC

  • North Dakota State can clinch the MVFC auto-bid with a win over Missouri State
    • AND
      • South Dakota loses to North Dakota
  • Missouri State can clinch the MVFC title* with a win over North Dakota State
    • AND
      • South Dakota State loses to Southern Illinois
      • South Dakota loses to North Dakota

*Missouri State isn't eligible for the MVFC's auto bid as the Bears are in a transition year out of the FCS and into the FBS next season (CUSA). 

NEC

  • Duquesne can clinch the NEC auto bid with a win over Wagner
    • AND
      • Central Connecticut State loses to Robert Morris

Top 25 Battles This Week (Coaches' Poll)

No. 1 North Dakota State by 12.72 at home vs. Missouri State
No. 2 Montana State by 2.56 at No. 4 UC Davis
No. 12 Tarleton State by 4.98 at home over No. 15 Abilene Christian

FCS vs. FBS

Two games this week will match FCS schools against FBS programs as Murray State visits Kentucky, and Mercer goes to Alabama.

FBS schools are 110-6 in FBS-FCS games this season. They are a cumulative 1,910-158 (.924) since we began tracking this in 2003.

In 2024, there were 121 matchups scheduled between FBS and FCS schools with 119 playing one such game, while Hawaii and UMass each play two.

This year, 15 schools were not scheduled to play a FCS opponent. Of those fifteen schools, 5 are in the B1G (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC and UCLA). Texas is the only school in the SEC that will not play a FCS program. The same is true for Virginia Tech in the ACC. In fact, Texas and Virginia Tech, along with Michigan and Houston, are repeats from last year's list of schools that played all FBS programs.

2024 FCS wins vs. FBS:
August 24: Montana State 35, New Mexico 31
September 7: St. Francis (PA) 23, Kent State 17
September 7: Idaho 17, Wyoming 13
September 7: Southern Utah 27, UTEP 24 (OT)
September 21: Monmouth 45, FIU 42
September 28: UT-Martin 24, Kennesaw 13

In 2023, FBS schools were 114-4. These were the FCS wins last year:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23

Streaks - Current FCS Longest

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE - 26-game home winning streak.
Last: Won 38-7 at North Dakota on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Hosts Southern Illinois on Saturday, November 16.

MONTANA STATE - Won 10 straight overall. Won 5 straight road games.
Last: Won 49-7 at home over Sacramento State on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Visits UC Davis on Saturday, November 16.

DRAKE - Won 17 straight conference games.
Last: Won 22-19 at St. Thomas (MN) on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Hosts Morehead State on Saturday, November 16.

FLORIDA A&M - Won 23 straight at home (2nd longest).
Last: Lost 31-12 at Prairie View A&M on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Hosts MVSU on Saturday, November 16.

NW STATE - Lost 18 straight over-all. Lost 9 straight home games
Last: Lost 41-0 at SE Louisiana on Saturday, November 16.
Next: Hosts McNeese on Saturday, November 16.

NORTHERN COLORADO - Lost 9 straight at home (tied with NW State, LA).
Last: Lost 43-15 at home to Eastern Washington on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Hosts Northern Arizona on Saturday, November 16.

NORTH CAROLINA A&T - Lost 14 straight conference games (tied with Murray State).
Last: Lost 31-3 at Villanova on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Visits Towson on Saturday, November 16.

MURRAY STATE - Lost 14 straight conference games (tied with NC A&T).
Last: Lost 59-31 at home to Missouri State on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Visits FBS member Kentucky on Saturday, November 16.

MVSU - 18 straight road losses.
Last: Lost 51-14 at Jackson State on Saturday, November 9.
Next: Visits Florida A&M on Saturday, November 16.