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NOTE: All 3 SWAC games scheduled this week have been canceled.
The playoffs are finally here! The FCS 2020 season, which was largely moved into the Spring of 2021 due to the Covid pandemic, is finally coming to a close as the FCS Playoffs get underway with 8 first-round games on tap.
The SWAC, which is not a part of the NCAA Playoffs, had three games scheduled this week but each was subsequently canceled due to virus issues. The SWAC will move forward with its own conference championship game on May 1 in Jackson, Mississippi where Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-0) will face Alabama A&M (3-0) . Normally, this would all build up to the Celebration Bowl featuring the champions of the SWAC and MEAC, but most of the MEAC teams bowed-out of the "spring season".
For now, let's talk playoffs!
A field of 16 teams will vie for the title instead of the customary 24. That field includes one automatic qualifier spot for each of ten conference champions and six at-large bids.
Big Sky - Weber State (5-0)
Big South - Monmouth (3-0)
CAA - Delaware (5-0)
MVFC - South Dakota State (5-1) - #1 Seed
NEC - Sacred Heart (3-1)
OVC - Jacksonville State (6-1, 9-2 including 3-1 in Fall) #4 Seed
Patriot - Holy Cross (3-0)
Pioneer - Davidson (4-2)
SoCon - VMI (6-1)
Southland - Sam Houston State (6-0) - #2 Seed
Eastern Washington (5-1)
James Madison (5-0) - #3 Seed
Missouri State (5-1, 5-4 including 0-3 in Fall)
North Dakota (4-1)
North Dakota State (5-2, 6-2 including 1-0 in Fall)
Southern Illinois (4-3, 5-3 including 1-0 in Fall)
(Computer Picks in parenthesis)
| First Round | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/24, 3 p.m. | ||||
| Holy Cross (3-0) | ||||
| #1 SDSU (5-1) (-22.32) |
SDSU (-12.48) |
SDSU (-18.50) | SDSU | |
| 4/24, 4 p.m. | ||||
| So. Illinois (5-3) | ||||
| Weber State (5-0) (-0.11) |
Weber State | |||
| 4/24, 7 p.m. | ||||
| Sacred Hart (3-1) | ||||
| Delaware (5-0) (-5.83) |
Delaware (-8.06) |
Delaware | ||
| 4/24 2 p.m. | ||||
| Davidson (4-2) | ||||
| #4 J'ville St. (9-2) (-6.67) |
J'ville St. | |||
| 4/24, 2 p.m. | ||||
| VMI (6-1) | ||||
| #3 JMU (5-0) (-30.92) |
JMU (-18.63) |
JMU | ||
| 4/24, 4 p.m. | ||||
| Missouri State (5-4) | ||||
| North Dakota (4-1) (-22.42) |
North Dakota | |||
| 4/24, 3:30 p.m. | ||||
| E. Washington (5-1) | ||||
| NDSU (6-2) (-37.55) |
NDSU (-17.07) | NDSU (-6.84) | NDSU (-18) | NDSU |
| 4/24 12:00 p.m. | ||||
| Monmouth (3-0) (-8.59) |
Monmouth | |||
| #2 SHSU (6-0) | ||||
Suffice it to say that we don't agree with a lot of the computer predictions for the playoffs, especially with regards to some of the huge pointspreads. Not to mention, we see no way that North Dakota State wins the title. We'll even go out on a tiny limb and say that the Bison are bounced in round one.
In the first round:
- Look for Holy Cross to be far more competitive than a 22-point dog
- We agree the Southern Illinois-Weber State game is a toss-up. We'll take Weber by a hair in a wild one. This game could seriously reach a 100 total points with a final score in the 52-48 range.
- Delaware should be the winner over Sacred Heart and the computer spread seems about right. The advantage for the Blue Hens is a defense that ranks 4th nationally.
- Jacksonville State by 6.67 over Davidson seems too low. The teams are evenly matched on offense (Davidson 28th Jacksonville State 29th) and the Wildcats sport the top rushing offense behind the three-headed attack of RB Coy Williams (75,5 ypg, 6 TD's), RB Dylan Sparks (86,5 ypg, 4 TD';s) and QB Tyler Phelps (59.8 ypg). But the Gamecocks counter with the 11th-best run defense and 13th-best overall defense.
- JMU by 30.92 over VMI seems a bit excessive, but it could happen. The Dukes sport the nation's top defense and 13th-ranked offense. The key to any success for VMI will be an offense that ranks 16th as the defense ranks 40th.
- North Dakota by 22.42 over Missouri State is way too much. In fact, Missouri State could pull the upset but neither is going beyond the second round.
- NDSU by 37.55 over EWU is insane. We'll take EWU in an upset. NDSU ranks just 50th in total offense and 23rd in total defense while their first round opponent, Eastern Washington, leads the nation in total offense at 562.5 yards per game.
- Monmouth by 8.59 on the road vs. SHSU favors the wrong team. BUT.... these are two of the best 16 teams in the playoff. This game will be fun to watch, but the Bearkats should be favored at home even though they rank 50th in total defense while the Hawks rank 24th. On offense, SHSU ranks 4th and Monmouth ranks 10th. If the Hawks prevail, look for them to possibly go the distance. As it stands, we're picking Sam Houston State to win the title.
Second round:
- Weber wins again by a hair, upsetting top seed South Dakota State
- Jacksonville State ousts Delaware
- JMU knocks out either North Dakota or Missouri State
- Sam Houston takes down EWU
Semifinals:
- Jacksonville State edges Weber
- Sam Houston eliminates James Madison
Final:
- Sam Houston State defeats Jacksonville State
NOTES: Neither Sam Houston State or Jacksonville State has won an FCS Championship. SHSU is 0-2 in championship games with back-to-back losses to NDSU in 2011 and 2012. Jacksonville State lost to NDSU in its only championship game appearance in 2015.
Sam Herder at HeroSports.com published his take on the bracket and he comes up with a different result than either of those published above.
His first round winners from the top half of the bracket are No. 1 seed South Dakota State, Weber State, No. 4 seed Jacksonville State and Delaware - all favored teams.
His bottom winners are No. 3 seed James Madison, North Dakota, North Dakota State and No. 2 Sam Houston State - again, all favorites.
In the top half quarterfinals, Herder takes the 1-seed to keep moving on with SDSU taking out Weber, but No. 4 Jacksonville State gets eliminated by Delaware.
In the bottom half quarters, No. 3 James Madison kicks out North Dakota, but North Dakota State upsets No. 2 Sam Houston.
Herder then has No. 1 South Dakota State taking down Delaware in one semifinal, and No. 3 James Madison bouncing North Dakota State in the other semifinal.
From there, No. 1 SDSU and No. 3 JMU emerge as the finalists with the Jackrabbits winning it all.