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The Congrove Computer Rankings at CollegeFootballPoll.com had a heyday on opening weekend with its related picks, going 4-0 on outright upset picks on Saturday and finishing 23-4 against the spread for games that pitted FCS schools against each other.
In 2023, the computer's FCS Picks hit a solid 58% of the games against the spread.
For the most part, teams helped the cause by performing the way they were supposed to perform. The only miss that stood out was the computer's 10.15-point pick of Presbyterian at Mercer against odds of 27.50 points in favor of the homestanding Bears in Macon. Mercer won the game 63-10, despite returning less than half of its starters while the Blue Hose had nearly 80% of its starters back. However, Mercer was 9-4 a year ago while Presbyterian was 4-7.
Delaware, whom the computer considers to be the best FCS team this year, was a 48-17 home winner over Bryant. The Blue Hens are ineligible for the official FCS title as they are ineligible for both the NCAA Championship playoffs and the Coastal Athletic Association title, though they will still play a full compliment of FCS games, including a CAA schedule.
Delaware is basically just hanging in space as the school is also not eligible for anything having to do with the FBS or Conference USA, whom it is joining next season.
This is what happens in the transition phase of schools moving up from one division to another.
So, the computer's true FCS favorite in 2024 is going to come down to the seeding of playoff teams. Montana State earns a projected undefeated record, but twice-defending champion South Dakota State, and multi-time champion North Dakota State have greater power ratings. Those schools are among the favorites, along with Montana, Idaho and Villanova while FCS upstarts Tarleton State and Texas A&M-Commerce have darkhorse possibilities.
Several of those contenders played rough games against FBS foes. South Dakota State opened at Oklahoma State and fell 44-20, while North Dakota State opened at Colorado and gave the Buffaloes fits before falling 31-26. Montana State was a 31-26 winner in Week Zero at New Mexico and followed that victory with a 31-7 win over Utah Tech in St. George. Idaho played tough at Oregon and only lost 24-14. Tarleton was smacked 45-3 at Baylor after opening its season with a 26-23 home win over McNeese. Texas A&M-Commerce fell 45-14 at San Diego State.
Montana notched a 29-24 home win over Missouri State, and Villanova won a home opener over Youngstown State 24-17.
Weather wiped the game between D2 member Quincy and defending Pioneer League champs Drake off the books. The Bulldogs led 10-0 at halftime, but storms and field conditions weren't going to allow the teams to resume play so both schools agreed to call it a 'no contest'.
Fifty-nine FCS teams faced a FBS foe over the holiday weekend and all of them lost.
The FBS programs are 60-1 against the FCS schools in 2024. They finished 114-4 last year. Over-all, the FBS is a collective 1,860-153 (.924) since we began tracking this in 2003.
Abilene Christian came close to a win on Saturday, bowing 52-51 in overtime at Texas Tech on a failed two-point conversion in the first overtime.
2024 FCS wins vs. FBS:
August 24: Montana State 35, New Mexico 31
In 2024, there are 121 scheduled scheduled matchups between FBS and FCS schools with 119 schools playing one such game, while Hawaii and UMass each play two.
This year, 15 schools do not play a FCS opponent and 5 are in the B1G (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC and UCLA). Texas is the only school in the SEC that will not play a FCS program. The same is true for Virginia Tech in the ACC. In fact, Texas and Virginia Tech, along with Michigan and Houston, are repeats from last year's list of schools that played all FBS programs.
Last season had 117 of the 133 FBS schools facing one FCS opponent, and Army played two such games for a total of 118 FBS-FCS matchups.
Of the 16 FBS schools that did NOT play a FCS program, 7 were in the B1G (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin). 6 more are evenly split between the Big 12 (Houston, Oklahoma, Texas) and Pac-12 (Colorado, USC, Washington). The other three were Liberty (CUSA) , UTSA (American), and Virginia Tech (ACC).
These were the FCS wins in 2023:
September 9: Idaho 33, Nevada 6
September 9: Southern Illinois 14, Northern Illinois 12
September 9: Fordham 40, Buffalo 37
September 16: Sacramento State 30, Stanford 23
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE - Won 29 straight vs FCS teams, 21 straight home, 17 straight conference games, 8 straight FCS road games.
Last: The Jackrabbits lost 44-20 at Oklahoma State (FBS) on Thursday, August 31
Next: Host Incarnate Word on Saturday, September 7.
FLORIDA A&M - Won 13 straight over-all, 21 straight home games, 16 straight conference games (2nd longest)
Last: 22-18 at home over South Carolina State on Saturday, August 31.
Next: at Miami (FBS) on Saturday, September 7.
WESTERN ILLINOIS - Lost 25 straight over-all, 18 straight conference games, 11 straight home games, 16 road games.
Last: Lost 54-15 at Northern Illinois (FBS) on Saturday, August 31
Next: at Indiana (FBS) on Friday, September 6.
CAL POLY - Lost 17 straight true road games.
Last: Lost 27-21 at San Diego on Saturday, August 31.
Next: at Stanford (FBS) on Saturday, September 7.