Easy Pickins

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare so 'give the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,445-484 (.749) SU, 945-926 (.505) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	6-1 (.857)	4-3 (.571)
Last Week	3-2 (.600)	2-3 (.400)
This Season	44-13 (.772)	35-22 (.614)
Last Season	48-10 (.828)	33-25 (.569)

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NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-14.5) by 25.77 over Akron - Wednesday, November 13. There are quite a few injured players on both teams with questionable status for tonight's game, which is likely the reason that this game has dropped from an 18.5-point opening to as little as a 14-point spread at 5:15 p.m. on game day. The computer trend line has NIU by 19.39 points as the Huskies are statistically No. 1 in the MAC on both sides of the ball, while Akron is ranked 11th on offense and 9th on defense. NIU, which earlier in the season handled Notre Dame its only loss, is a bit shockingly just 5-4 over-all and 2-3 in the MAC. Akron is 2-7, 1-4. Still, the Huskies are 4-3-2 ATS (1-2-1 home) while the Zips are 3-6 (1-4 away).

SUATSNIU won 29-16

UTSA (-1.5) by 9.21 over North Texas - Friday, November 16. This was originally listed as an upset play until the line flipped before to favoring UTSA. The computer trend line has North Texas beating the opening spread (-1.5) as it favors the Mean Green by 3.48.  UNT leads the American Conference in total offense and UTSA is 5th in total defense. North Texas relies on the passing game for 70% of its yardage and the UTSA pass defense ranks next-to-last in the conference and 131st nationally. UTSA gets nearly 69% of its offense through the air and ranks 2nd in pass offense while the UNT pass defense ranks 11th. The Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS at home while North Texas is 2-2 ATS on the road.

SUATSUTSA won 48-27

MEMPHIS (-15.5) by 23.89 over Ala.-Birmingham (UAB) - Saturday, November 16. The trend is pointing lower on the computer with a margin of 18.53, but that still easily exceeded the 14.5-point spread. Trent Dilfer has returned UAB to being one of the worst teams in the country after Bill Clark worked so hard to bring it out of the ashes to a pair of conference championships not so long ago. And when Clark suddenly retired for health reasons before the 2022 season, assistant Bryant Vincent led the Blazers to a 7-6 finish and a bowl win. But the school opted to hire Dilfer instead of retaining Vincent and  the program has plummeted to 6-15 under his direction (4-9 in the American Conference), Meanwhile, Vincent went to UL-Monroe and beat Dilfer & Co. 32-6 earlier this year, and has taken the Warhawks from laughing stock to a competitive 5-4 (3-4) in the Sun Belt (though they have now lost 3 straight). Memphis is 3rd on offense and 4th on defense in the conference, while UAB is 8th on offense and 7th on defense.

SUATSMemphis won 53-18

BYU (-3.5) by 5.65 over Kansas - Saturday, November 16. The computer trend line blows the margin up to 14.37 for the Cougars who are 3-1 ATS at home while Kansas is 1-3 ATS as the visitor. Interestingly, BYU is 0-2 versus Kansas. The Cougars lost 38-27 in Lawrence last year, and 23-20 in Honolulu in the Aloha Bowl in 1992, so this is the first time the two have met at BYU.

SUATSKansas won 17-13

USC (-7) by 17.52 over Nebraska - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 8.5, the spread could be found at 7 at several sportsbooks late Thursday night/early Friday morning.The Trojans are just 4-5 over-all, but they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home. The computer trend line has only a slightly lower margin at 16.08.

SUATSUSC won 28-20

JACKSONVILLE STATE (-12.5) by 16.14 over Florida International (FIU) - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 13.5, this game could be found at 12.5 at such sportsbooks as FanDuel and MGM early Friday morning. The computer trend line has Jax State by 20.04. Last week, Jax State rallied from 9 down at Louisiana Tech in the final 6 minutes to force overtime and then pull out the 44-37 win. FIU was a 34-13 winner at home over NMSU to end a 3-game losing streak. Jax State (6-3, 5-0) is tied for the CUSA lead. FIU (3-6, 2-3) must win-out to be bowl eligible for the first time under Mike MacIntyre whose records with the school are 11-22 over-all and 5-16 in conference play. He has had two winning seasons in 11 completed campaigns. One of those came at SJSU (2012) and the other at Colorado (2016). Since them he's 21-35 overall, and 9-29 in conference games. The job Rich Rodriguez has done at Jax State has been nothing short of special after being hired to guide the transition from the FCS to the FBS. In his lone season with Jax State in the FCS, his team went 9-2. Then, in his first season in the FBS, the Gamecocks were 9-4 and finished 3rd in CUSA while capping off the year with a New Orleans Bowl win. This year, his team is 5-3 over-all, but 4-0 and tied with WKU atop the conference standings. He has records of 23-9 overall and 15-2 vs. conference foes. After this week's game, they will host a Sam Houston (7-2, 4-1) team that is also in its second season in the FBS and CUSA, before visiting WKU. Does that mean the eyes will be off the prize this week? We sincerely doubt it.

SUATSJaX State won 34-31

ILLINOIS (-1.5) by 7.34 over Michigan State - Saturday, November 16. The Illini haven't exactly been world-beaters and they've lost 2 straight after starting 6-1.  The offense has struggled against really good defenses, scoring just 9 vs Oregon and 7 vs Penn State. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a 5-game home winning streak. Michigan State scored at 10 Oregon, so no big difference there. The Spartans have lost 5 of their last 6 games, but the win was a 32-20 home upset of Iowa three weeks ago to remind us that strange things can happen. The computer trend line has Illinois by 8.66 points.

SUATSIllinois won 38-16

Hold Your Horses

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers so 'take the points'. It's our opinion these are the computer picks in this category that have the best chance of being correct. Since 2002 (thru 2023), our picks in this category are 1,091-297 (.791) SU, 736-652 (.530) ATS.

	SU	ATS
This Week	0-0 (.000)	0-0 (.000)
Last Week	0-1 (.000)	0-1 (.000)
This Season	10-8 (.556)	9-9 (.500)
Last Season	22-7 (.759)	12-17 (.414)

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

Upsets

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. This is every upset projected by the computer. We do not select these games, but we do offer commentary/analysis. Since 2002 (thru 2023), the computer's upset picks are 1,027-864 ATS (.543).

	SU	ATS
This Week	2-2 (.500)	2-2 (.500)
Last Week	4-4 (.500)	4-4 (.500)
This Season	33-51 (.393)	40-44 (.476)
Last Season	49-61 (.445)	61-51 (.545)

The computer has called some remarkable upsets in recent history. Here are just a few examples. In 2024, it had Ole Miss over Georgia and the Rebels won 28-10. Earlier in the year, it had Oregon by 1 against a 3.5-point spread for Ohio State and the Ducks won by 1 with a 32-31 final. It had Alabama's upset of Georgia to end the Bulldogs' streaks of 42 regular season wins and 16 straight true road wins. The same day, it also had Louisiana-Lafayette winning at Wake Forest and five more upset wins for a total of seven in one day. Earlier in 2024, it had USC over LSU, Notre Dame over Texas A&M, and Toledo over Mississippi State. The following week, it correctly picked Toledo to lose to Western Kentucky, and SMU by 10.11 when the line favored TCU by 2.5 (SMU won by 24). In 2023, it nailed South Alabama over Oklahoma State, Sacramento State over Stanford, Jacksonville State winning its first game as a FBS school, and FSU upsetting LSU for the second straight season. In week 12 of 2023, it picked UCF (4-5) over Oklahoma State (7-2) during a week in which the computer went 7-3 on outright upset winners and 8-2 against the spread. In 2022, it had FSU over LSU, Kentucky's win at Florida, Syracuse over NC State and TCU over Oklahoma State. It went 4-for-4 with its upset picks on November 19, 2022, including unranked Arkansas over ranked Ole Miss. Further back, the computer correctly picked Clemson's 2018 upset over Alabama in the Natty after going 7-3 against the spread on bowl games. That year, it also called Syracuse's first win over Florida State since 1966, the end to Kansas' 46-game road losing streak AND the end of Kentucky's 31-game losing streak to Florida. In 2020, it called Indiana's upsets of Penn State and Michigan. The Hoosiers opened the season with a 36-35 win in overtime over the Nittany Lions to improve to 2-22 all-time in that series. Two weeks later, Indiana beat Michigan 38-21 to end a string of 24 consecutive losses to the Wolverines. That same season, the Upset Picks were 4-1 SU and ATS over the Thanksgiving weekend, including picks of 11-point underdog Michigan State halting Northwestern's undefeated season, and 7-point underdog Hawaii doing the same to Nevada.

We have noticed more movement in lines during the week than in years past, likely due to easier access as more states now allow sports wagering. Thus, an upset pick on Monday might NOT be one on Tuesday. Bettors beware of dramatic line movements.

Check back later to see if selections have been added to, or removed from, this category due to line movements.

The computer is 6-6 SU and ATS over the last two weeks on its upsets forecast. These are the computer's only opposite picks this week.

Arkansas State by 1.56 over GEORGIA STATE (-3) - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 2.5, this game had universally moved to 3 early Friday morning. The computer trend line has GSU by 1.44 points. The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS at home while the Red Wolves are 2-3 ATS on the road. Both teams have horrendous defensive stats, but a glaring difference surfaces on offense where Arkansas State ranks 3rd in the Sun Belt vs. conference teams and Georgia State ranks 10th.

SUATSArkansas State won 27-20

WEST VIRGINIA by 6.49 over Baylor (-2.5) - Saturday, November 16. WVU is looking for its first 3-game winning streak of the season while Baylor will try to pocket a fourth consecutive victory. The computer trend line has the Bears by 1.62 points, but the they're just 2-2 ATS on the road. The Mountaineers, however, are only 1-4 ATS at home. West Virginia has a 50-50 balance between passing and rushing and Baylor isn't far off with a slight edge through the air. These teams stack up pretty even statistically speaking so we would tend to lean toward the home team since no other advantage stands out.

SUATSBaylor won 49-35

Florida Atlantic by 0.18 over TEMPLE (-2.5) - Saturday, November 16. Temple has only been favored this year on one other occasion and won that game outright to make the Owls 1-0 ATS as the favorite. The Owls are actually 3-1 ATS as the home team while FAU is 1-3 ATS on the road. BUT, Temple has the worst offense in the American Conference and the teams are about even on defense. The computer trend line has Temple by 3.70.

SUATSTemple won 18-15 in OT

South Forida by 10.59 over CHARLOTTE (-1.5) - Saturday, November 16. The spread on this game flipped leading up to the kickoff to turn it into a computer pick. The computer trend line has the Bulls by 0.57.

SUATSUSF won 59-24