Over-Achievers and Under-Performers
by Mike Mitchell
December 4, 2007

Each season, certain teams perform far better than expected. Others do much worse.

Of note, Cincinnati ranks 3rd on this year's list of Over-Achievers after ranking 10th on last season's chart of Under-Performers.

Kent State and New Mexico State appear on the Under-Performers top ten for the second consecutive season. The Golden Flashes topped the chart last year and rank 10th this season. The Aggies were 7th last year and 8th this season.

It should not surprise anyone that Louisville, Nebraska and Notre Dame each made the top ten list of Under-Performers. That list also includes two teams that have already fired their head coaches (Nebraska and SMU), and three teams that were in their first season with new coaches (Louisville, Miami, and Minnesota).

Likewise, it should be expected that the top Over-Achievers include the likes of Kansas, Connecticut and UCF. Every team on that list is headed to a bowl game with the exception of North Carolina. The Tar Heels didn't win a lot of games, but played several teams much closer than anticipated.

Here is a look at the biggest Over-Achievers and Under-Performers of 2007. The information was gleaned from comparing the power rating of each team in the preseason, to their actual power rating at the end of the regular season, according to the Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR Top 119).

Top 10 Over-Achievers
Pos.	Team	Preseason Power	Postseason Power	Gain
1.	Kansas	64.93	80.73	15.80
2.	Air Force	53.90	66.87	12.97
3.	Cincinnati	65.59	77.90	12.31
4.	Illinois	60.18	70.62	10.44
5.	Michigan State	59.47	69.89	10.42
6.	Missouri	69.56	79.18	9.62
7.	Connecticut	57.84	67.05	9.21
8.	UCF	60.75	69.00	8.25
9.	North Carolina	51.06	59.07	8.01
10.	Colorado	56.03	63.09	7.06

Top 10 Under-Performers
Pos.	Team	Preseason Power	Postseason Power	Loss
1.	Northern Illinois	65.13	52.51	-12.62
2.	Notre Dame	75.05	64.04	-11.01
3.	SMU	66.88	56.22	-10.66
4.	Louisville	83.52	74.02	-9.50
5.	Louisiana-Lafayette	61.94	52.88	-9.06
6.	Miami (Fla.)	72.49	63.70	-8.79
7.	Nebraska	77.16	69.16	-8.00
8.	New Mexico State	57.94	49.97	-7.97
9.	Minnesota	66.33	58.56	-7.77
10.	Kent State	60.63	52.91	-7.72