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12/03/08-12/06/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 79-24 SU (.767), 57-46 ATS (.553)
Last Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 1-5 ATS (.167)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)

Thursday, December 4th
RUTGERS (-11) by 11.62 over Louisville - Rutgers is on a 5-game winning streak, and has won each of the last four games by 18 points or more. The Cardinals have dropped four straight, including a 41-7 road loss to Pitt and a 35-21 home loss to West Virginia.
Rutgers won 63-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, December 6th
Florida (-9) by 12.17 over Alabama - Florida pits the nation's 17th-ranked offense against the 3rd-ranked defense of Alabama. The Crimson Tide counters with the 53rd-ranked offense against the 7th-best defense. Alabama's defensive numbers were inflated against some awful offensive teams, including five opponents that rank 102nd or worse, and seven teams that rank 80 or worse. Only Georgia (21) and Arkansas State (32, but a Sun Belt team) rank in the top 50. Conversely, Florida's offense performed against nine defenses ranked in the top 38, and four that rank 16th or better.
Florida won 31-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Troy (-11) by 15.42 over Arkansas State - The spread seems large, but the computer likes the Trojans by far more than Vegas, and the computer is 9-1 ATS with Troy this season.
Troy won 35-9. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Navy (-11) by 11.88 over Army - 11 points seems to be far too few for Navy, even though the line provided by the "experts" and the computer's projected margin are almost identical. The Midshipmen have won each of the last six games by no fewer than 12 points, and four of those contests by at least 28 points. Navy is on target to end the season as the No. 1 rushing team for the 4th straight season, though its' average of 292 is 56 yards per game lower than last year.
Navy won 34-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Cincinnati (-7.5) by 8.23 over HAWAII - I'm a bit surprised that the "experts" and the computer don't have a double-digit spread for the Bearcats who enter this game with a 10-2 record against a much stronger schedule than the Warriors faced. The computer is 6-5 ATS with both teams.
Cincinnati won 29-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

CONNECTICUT (-2.5) by 3.21 over Pitt - Two top running backs go up against two decent run defenses. UConn's Donald Brown leads the nation with 148.45 yards per game, and is second in total yards behind Iowa's Shonn Green. Pitt's LeSean McCoy is 8th with an average of 118.91 yards per game. The computer is 5-5 ATS with UConn, 7-4 with Pitt.
Pitt won 34-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 68-17 SU (800), 44-41 ATS (.518)
Last Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 2-6 ATS (.250)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)

Friday, December 5th
Ball State (-14.5) by 9.94 over Buffalo - I'm going with the computer's won-loss records ATS with these teams - it is 7-4 with Ball State, 8-4 with Buffalo. The Bulls have mastered the art of playing it close, taking four teams to overtime and winning three of those. However, the Cardinals have only had one game decided by fewer than 12 points, and 10 of their wins were by at least 15 points.
Buffalo won 42-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, December 6th
Oklahoma (-17) by 9.47 over Missouri - Given Oklahoma's offensive outburst over the last four games, the computer spread seems low. However, the computer has posted solid results with both teams - it's 10-2 SU, 7-4 ATS with Mizzou, and it's 11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS with the Sooners.
Oklahoma won 62-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-7) by 6.86 over Usf - UConn and Rutgers are the only teams West Virginia has defeated that have better than .500 records. USF has only defeated three teams with .500 marks - Kansas, UConn and N.C. State. The Bulls snapped a 3-game losing streak with last week's win over Connecticut. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three games. USF is 2-1 against WVU, with wins in the last two meetings. West Virginia has rushed for a total of just 320 yards (188 last year, and 132 in 2006) in its' losses to USF. Steve Slaton, now a rookie star with the NFL's Houston Texans (904 yards rushing through 12 games), was held to 48.5 rushing yards per game by USF when he averaged 112 against everyone else over two seasons. The Bulls rank 8th against the run this year when they only ranked 34th last season. West Virginia ranks 12th in rushing offense this year after ranking 3rd last year. The computer is 7-4 SU, 6-4 ATS with USF. It's 6-5 SU, 6-4 ATS with WVU.
West Virginia won 13-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 36-49 SU (.424), 42-43 ATS (.494)
Last Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)
This Week: 0-1 SU (.000), 0-1 ATS (.000)

Wednesday, December 3rd
Middle Tennessee by 1.08 over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-4.5) - Both teams need a victory to become bowl eligible, and with 34 games to fill, the victor has a good shot at landing a postseason bid. A Ragin' Cajun victory would tie them for the Sun Belt title, if Arkansas State upsets Troy. However, Louisiana can't win the tie-breakers that would advance it to the New Orleans Bowl. MTSU is on a 3-game winning streak against teams with a combined record of 7-28. UL-L has one win over a .500 club (Arkansas State, 6-5). The computer is 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS with Louisiana. It's 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS with Middle Tennessee.
Louisiana-Lafayette won 42-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.




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