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11/29/12-12/1/12


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 1-3 ATS (.250)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 29
RUTGERS (-2) by 4.01 over Louisville - The Scarlet Knights were a 1.30-point computer favorite in the preseason and have climbed slightly to a 4.01-point pick, supporting the preseason line and trending upward despite the loss last week at Pitt.
Louisville won 20-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, December 1
Boise State (-7.5) by 10.31 over NEVADA - BSU has owned this series, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings. Nevada is just 1-3 at home versus FBS teams and only beat FCS member NW State (La.) by 11. The Broncos were only 5.96-point computer favorites in the preseason and have added over 4 points to that differential. The Wolf Pack snapped a 3-game losing streak with a win over New Mexico on November 17 and both teams were idle this past week.
Boise State won 27-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Cincinnati (-4) by 8.20 over UCONN - Connecticut has the odd combination of the nation's 10th-best defense and 10th-worst offense. The Huskies are the 9th-best team against the run and the 9th-worst trying to run. Cincy has the conference's 2nde-best offense even though it only ranks 40th in the nation in that category.
Cincinnati won 34-17, The computer won SU, won ATS.

Florida State (-13) by 13.75 over Georgia Tech - The ACC better hope this is true or it will be dealt the embarrassment of having a 7-6 Yellow Jackets team representing the league in the Orange Bowl. As of Thursday morning, tickets on StubHub were priced from $28 in the lower bowl to $3 in the upper deck. Over 50,000 had sold in advance, but many of those buyers have flooded the re-sell marketplace. Apparently, they need the other Tech to sell tickets as this game sold out each time the Hokies appeared in Charlotte. This game pits the nation's 3rd-ranked rushing offense of Georgia Tech against the No. 1 rushing defense of the Seminoles.
Florida State won 21-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 51-17 SU (.750), 42-26 ATS (.618)
This Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, December 1
Oklahoma (-8) by 5.03 over TCU - According to the computer, the Sooners never would have covered this line at any time during the season and were only a a 3.82-point pick in the preseason.
Oklahoma won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
This Week: 0-0 SU (.000), 0-0 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

There are not any outright upset picks this week vs. the opening line.