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11/26/13-11/30/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 106-12 SU (.898), 75-43 ATS (.636)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 2-5 ATS (.286)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 29
FAU (-28) by 30.60 over Fiu - The computer trend line is 43.55, giving plenty of room for the Owls to annihilate their geographical archrival.
FAU won 21-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fresno State (-8.5) by 8.74 over SAN JOSE STATE - The computer trend line is way up there at 21.85. SJSU was actually a preseason favorite by 4.27 points and preseason candidate to win the conference title, but the team has vastly under-performed expectations and a loss in this game will eliminate them from bowl eligibility.
San Jose State wins 62-52. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

HOUSTON (-10) by 11.57 over Smu - Houston was only a 1.47-point preseason favorite but has seen its power rating rise nearly 5.5 points over the course of the year while the Mustangs have dropped nearly a full point. SMU is one-dimensional, relying on the pass for 79.1% of its offense. Houston has 20 INT's while allowing just 13 TD passes and leads the nation in total turnovers gained. Houston goes through the air for 67.2% of its offense and SMU has allowed 22 passing TD while gaining just 9 INT's. The computer trend line favors the Cougars by 3 touchdowns.
Houston won 34-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WASHINGTON (-14.5) by 20.27 over Washington State - The Cougars have vastly improved, yet still have shown signs of their former selves with blowout losses to the better teams in the conference - Stanford (17-55), Oregon State (24-52), Oregon (38-62) and Arizona State (21-55).
Washington won 27-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 30
Baylor (-14) by 15.01 over TCU - The trend line is a whopping 34.02. Only question is how well can the Bears bounce back after a crushing defeat at Oklahoma State. Baylor owns the Big 12 and national total offense statistical lead while the Horned Frogs rank next-to-last. On defense, Baylor ranks 2nd in the conference and TCU 3rd.
Baylor won 41-38. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UTAH (-14) by 19.63 over Colorado - The trend line is 25.05 in favor of a Utah team that computer only projected to win 3 games in the preseason. A win over the Buffs would make them 5-7. Both schools enter with 4-7 overall records and 1-7 conference marks.
Utah won 24-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

UTSA (-14) by 18.57 over Louisiana Tech - Larry Coker's Roadrunners are looking to finish 7-5 while the Bulldogs (4-7) are just hoping to close out the season on a good note.
UTSA won 30-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 64-11 SU (.853), 38-37 ATS (.507)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 3-1 ATS (.750)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 30
BOISE STATE (-35) by 26.24 over New Mexico - These teams have met four times since 1999, including twice since 2011, and the Broncos have won every meeting. But only once have they beaten the Lobos by more than 17 points.
Boise State won 45-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-6) by 1.62 over Clemson - The trend line barely leans in favor of the Gamecocks (-0.99). The Tigers lead the all-time series 65-41-1, but South Carolina has taken the last 4 meetings.
South Carolina won 31-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-8.5) by 5.78 over Iowa State - You could dry to draw a conclusion from the Kansas game alone as WVU lost 31-19 to the Jayhawks and the Cyclones plastered them 34-0. Or you could use the Oklahoma State as your model as the Mountaineers beat the Cowboys and Iowa State lost by 31. I'll just stick with the computer's trend line that says this game doesn't look much different than it did in the preseason when WVU was projected to win by 5.84.
Iowa State won 52-44 in triple-ovetime. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

RICE (-12.5) by 8.56 over Tulane - There's a logjam in CUSA West and both of these teams are among the four that are fighting for the division title. The Green Wave have 4 upset wins and 1 upset loss mixed into their 7-4 record which could speak to why the computer's trend line only favors Rice by 3.46.
Rice won 17-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 42-44 SU (.488), 54-32 ATS (.628)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 30
SYRACUSE by 5.88 over Boston College (-2.5) - Andre Williams is the primary reason that BC has done anything this year. The stud RB has rushed for 2,073 yards with a ridiculous 888 of that coming in the last 3 games. The Orange were favored by 13.84 in the preseason so the momentum is in BC's direction, and the trend line favors the Eagles by 2.08.
Syracuse won 34-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH by 1.88 over Georgia (-3) - Georgia QB Aaron Murray is done after suffering a torn ACL against Kentucky. Hutson Mason, a redshirt junior, will take his place to break a string of 52 consecutive starts by Murray. Mason was 13-of-19 for 189 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT's vs. the Wildcats. The Jackets were forecasted to lose this game by 2.99 in the preseason. The computer's trend line now favors the Ramblin' Wreck by 6.75. Georgia's task will be to stop the nation's 4th-best rushing offense with the nation's 30th-best run defense which isn't an impossible mission when you consider that Georgia Tech has one of the most one-dimensional offenses in the modern era of big-time college football, sans the military schools.
Georgia won 41-34 in double-overtime. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

N.C. STATE by 3.86 over Maryland (-2) - Ironically, all 3 computer upset forecasts this week involve ACC teams. And all 3 have Vegas favoring the road team while the computer likes the hosts. In this game, the computer trend line actually favors the Terps by 3.39.
Maryland won 41-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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