Saturday, November 24
UTSA by 2.73 over Texas State (-2.5) - It's a battle for bragging rights between the two newest FBS members from the state of Texas. UTSA is 7-4 while Texas State is 3-7, but the Roadrunners have faced two FCS opponents and a pair of D2 schools while the Bobcats played just one FCS team. Larry Coker, the former national championship winner with Miami, coaches UTSA while Dennis Franchione is the head man in San Marcos. UTSA was a predicted 4.57-point winner in the preseason.
UTSA won 38-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Southern Miss by 3.91 over MEMPHIS (-3) - At 0-11, does Southern Miss care any more? USM could have won last week's game, but lost 34-33 to UTEP when first-year head coach Ellis Johnson opted to go for 2 late in regulation instead of play for the tie and overtime. My theory is you always play for the best opportunity to win the game and a 2-point conversion doesn't qualify - you only attempt those when you have to. But that's just my opinion and I'm not a head coach. Memphis has won 2 straight over Tulane and UAB and is now 3-8 overall and one more win gets the Tigers to 4-4 in CUSA. They were 5-31 overall and 2-22 in CUSA over the previous three seasons. Southern Miss was favored by 25.92 in then preseason and just 3.91 now. The trend points heavily to Memphis.
Memphis won 42-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Michigan by 2.03 over OHIO STATE (-4.5) - Michigan's favorite status has dropped by almost 11 points in the computer since the preseason. The Wolverines win the Big Ten Legends division with a win and a Nebraska loss at Iowa on Friday. A win for Ohio State gives the Buckeyes their first undefeated season (12-0) since 2002 (14-0) when they claimed the BCS title.
Ohio State won 26-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Troy by 1.40 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE (-3) - Troy has lost 8 points off its favorite status since the preseason, largely because MTSU has significantly outperformed the computer's low expectations of a 2-10 season for the Blue Raiders. The trend points to MTSU which comes into the home contest on a 3-game winning streak. Troy has the conference's top-rated offense and lowest-rated defense. MTSU ranks 5th on offense (10-team league) and 9th on defense.
Middle Tennessee won 24-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
Wisconsin by 2.57 over PENN STATE (-2.5) - These teams have traded blowouts over the last three years with Penn State falling 45-7 last season after winning 48-7 in 2010 and 38-7 in 2009. Penn State has cut Wisconsin's gap in the computer by nearly 10 points since the preseason so the trend is definitely in the Nittany Lions' favor.
Penn State won 24-21 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Rutgers by 3.19 over PITTSBURGH (-2) - Rutgers has lost almost 2 points in the computer's preseason margin for this game, but that's not enough to call it a decisive trend. The Scarlet Knights allow 10 points less per game than Pitt (12 to 22) to rank 4th nationally in scoring defense.
Pittsburgh won 27-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Mississippi State by 5.26 over MISSISSIPPI (-1.5) - The Bulldogs would seem to be to be the clear favorite, but have lost 8.96 points off their preseason 14.22-point margin in the computer. That points the trend in Ole Miss' direction. They aren't far apart statistically, though Mississippi has allowed 8 more points per game (28.9 to 20.7) than their rival from Starkville.
Mississippi won 41-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
USC by 0.02 over Notre Dame (-6) - No Matt Barkley at QB for USC and you would think that would be enough said. But, the Trojans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings overall and 5 straight in Los Angeles. Not to mention the fact that USC has wrecked Notre Dame's chances at an undefeated season 6 previous times in history. Still, USC's favorite status in the computer has dropped by over 9 points since the preseason and essentially calls this game a toss-up without taking the absence of Barkley into account.
Notre Dame won 22-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Stanford by 3.36 over UCLA (-1.5) - In the preseason, the computer picked Stanford to go 11-1 and UCLA to go 6-6. So it's not surprising that UCLA has cut Stanford's preseason margin from over 13 points to just a little more than 3. But keep in mind that Stanford had trended downward by 11 points in its game at Oregon last week and still pulled off the upset as a huge underdog. And just like last week, this a game of the opponents' offense versus Stanford's defense. The Bruins average almost 488 yards on offense while the Cardinal easily top the league in defense by allowing just 328 per game.
Stanford won 35-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Unlv by 1.12 over HAWAII (-1) - The only thing that scares me with UNLV is that it is winless on the road in 2012. UNLV has gone from a 9.6-point underdog in the preseason to a 1.12-point favorite. The trend is heavily in the Rebels' favor.
Hawaii won 48-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Louisiana Tech by 2.13 over SAN JOSE STATE (-3.5) - Louisiana Tech is without RB Tevin King and its favored margin has dropped from 11.78 in the preseason to just 2.13 now. The trend says SJSU.
San Jose State won 52-43. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.