Google
Home Top 125 Polls Picks/Scores Feature Picks Odds PreGame PostGame Standings Bowls History Teams Links News Forum Season Preview More...

College Football
Feature Picks
Archives
11/19/13-11/23/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  Bowls             Year: 2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012

Important Info: This information is supplied for entertainment purposes only. CollegeFootballPoll.com neither encourages, participates in, or supports the practice of sports betting. Please read our Policies and Disclaimers.

Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 100-11 SU (.901), 73-38 ATS (.658)
This Week: 11-1 SU (.917), 9-3 ATS (.750)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 19
OHIO (-5.5) by 5.64 over Kent State - I wouldn't touch this game if it weren't for a trend line that puts Ohio up by nearly 13 points. But the Bobcats have played horribly in their last two games, losing at Buffalo and at Bowling Green by a cumulative 79-3. Kent has simply been a disaster all year.
Kent State won 44-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, November 21
Unlv (-1.5) by 2.80 over AIR FORCE - The Falcons are 2-8, 0-6. The Rebels are 5-5, 3-3 and attempting to clinch bowl eligibility. The trend line has UNLV winning by 5.88.
UNLV won 41-21. The computer won SU, won ATS

Saturday, November 23
Bowling Green (-24) by 29.99 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - BGSU is tied with Buffalo atop the MAC East and goes to Buffalo next week for what should be a de facto division title game. EMU has lost every MAC game by at least 25 points, aside from last week's 35-32 OT loss to lowly Western Michigan. The Eagles have allowed over 50 points in 5 of their MAC losses and BGSU owns the league's best scoring defense and total defense.
Bowling Green won 58-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

STANFORD (-30.5) by 38.73 over California - This game could be like a vacation for the Cardinal which is 8-2 against the nation's 4th-toughest schedule according to the Congrove Computer Rankings. Cal is 1-10 against the 2nd-toughest schedule. They can claim this is a rivalry game ("The Big Game") and that anything can happen, but it really can't. Stanford will absolutely win and the only question is whether or not it can score more than its 30.4 per game average.
Stanford won 63-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Usc (-21.5) by 22.84 over COLORADO - USC looks like a completely different under Ed Orgeron than it did under Lane Kiffin. The Trojans have reeled off 4 straight wins and made it back into the computer's top 25 at No. 25. Aside from its win over lowly Cal this past week, the Buffaloes have lost to every other PAC-12 team by at least 22 points this season.
USC won 47-29. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Duke (-5) by 7.80 over WAKE FOREST - Duke is playing lights-out football right now and is likely headed to the ACC Championship game versus Florida State. The Blue Devils were actually slim underdogs in the preseason by 0.72 points vs. the Demon Deacons, but are now favorites on the trend line by more than 16.
Duke won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

East Carolina (-6.5) by 11.84 over N. C. STATE - The Pirates were 4.69-point preseason favorites and have climbed to 11.84. The trend line is even greater at nearly 19 points. East Carolina ranks 25th nationally in scoring defense and 10th in scoring offense. N.C. State ranks 73rd and 97th in those categories.
East Carolina won 42-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FAU (-20) by 23.83 over New Mexico State - It might not be a quick and easy blowout, but the Aggies do own the nation's worst defense, statistically speaking.
FAU won 55-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Marshall (-33) by 34.62 over FIU - The trend line on this game is over 48 points. Marshall has erupted for 5,062 yards of offense this season while FIU has 2,234. The Herd have scored 428 points to FIU's 101. The Golden Panthers are not horrible on defense, ranking 9th in CUSA and 80th nationally for yards allowed per game, but rank 111th for points allowed.
Marshall won 48-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-56) by 61.25 over Idaho - Really, the only question is whether or not Florida State will plays its starters, 2nd team and 3rd string (how about an all walk-on squad) long enough to score enough points to cover this spread. I was going to back off completely on selecting this game just because it's 56 points that need be covered, but FSU has won its last 2 games by identical 59-3 scores over Wake and Syracuse and barely dropped a bead of sweat. The computer's trend line is an insane 82.64 points.
Florida State won 80-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Middle Tennessee (-22.5) by 24.29 over SOUTHERN MISS - MTSU is a nearly 32-point pick on the trend line. Southern Miss ranks 97th on defense and the offense averages just 294 yards and 12 points per game. FAU has scored 15 points or less in 9 of its 10 games and only managed single digits in 3 of those.
Middle Tennessee won 42-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Smu (-4.5) by 8.13 over USF - USF has a decent defense, but also owns the most unproductive offense in the American Athletic Conference. SMU tops the conference in total offense and passing offense.
SMU won 16-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754), 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 61-10 SU (.859), 35-36 ATS (.493)
This Week: 2-1 SU (.667), 2-1 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, November 22
SAN JOSE STATE (-2.5) by 1.74 over Navy - The Spartans were favored by 12.97 in the preseason and have seen that supposed advantage shrink to only 1.74, putting the trend line in Navy's favor by more than a touchdown.
Navy won 58-52 in 3 OT's. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 23
GEORGIA (-24) by 22.87 over Kentucky - Kentucky has held opponents to just 28.8 points per game, but the problem is an offense that has only scored 17 points or less five times. However, the trend line does support this pick with the 'Dawgs only getting around a 15-point nod.
Georgia won 59-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WYOMING (-6.5) by 3.49 over Hawaii - The Cowboys have dropped 4 straight after opening 4-2. The trend line puts this contest in the pick 'em category with Wyoming only getting a 0.27-point advantage.
Wyoming won 59-56 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 41-42 SU (.494), 53-30 ATS (.639)
This Week: 3-5 SU (.375), 5-3 ATS (.625)
PAST RECORDS

Wednesday, November 20
TOLEDO by 0.33 over Northern Illinois (-2.5) A Toledo win would not only hurt the BCS bowl-busting hopes of Northern Illinois, but could also put the Huskies in danger of not even making it to the MAC title game. NIU is the rend line favorite by a little more than 3.
Northern Illinois won 35-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 23
PURDUE by 0.35 over Illinois (-7) - I can't buy a Purdue win. Even though Illinois ranks next-to-last on defense in the conference, the B'maker offense has only scored a total of 52 points in their 6 conference games. Additionally, the Illini boast the Big Ten's 2nd-best passing offense. Purdue was favored by 19.08 in the preseason and the trend line now favors Illinois by 18.38, representing a record 37.45 point swing.
Illinois won 20-16. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Michigan by 2.62 over IOWA (-6.5) - The trend line would give Iowa a 2-point advantage which is still not enough to cover Iowa's 6.5-point line.
Iowa won 24-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma by 2.38 over KANSAS STATE (-3.5)- The Sooners are a 1-point dog on the trend line which is not enough to cover Kansas State's 3.5-point line.
Oklahoma won 41-31. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana-Monroe by 1.55 over SOUTH ALABAMA (-3.5) - UL-M has lost 14.11 points off its preseason forecast of a 15.66 point win. The trend points to a Jaguars victory.
South Alabama won 36-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Nebraska by 0.04 over PENN STATE (-2.5) - Nebraska has gone from 3.8-point preseason loser to narrowly forecasted winner.
Nebraska won 23-20 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Nebraska won 23-20 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Vanderbilt by 6.66 over TENNESSEE (-3) - I'm surprised Tennessee was installed as the Vegas favorite, and equally as surprised that the computer doesn't have Vandy as an even bigger winner, but the trend only favors the Commodores by around 4.
Vanderbilt won 14-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utah by 4.33 over WASHINGTON STATE (-1) - QB Travis Wilson is out for Utah, which makes this pick less likely to become reality. The computer trend line, though, is actually 8.6 points in favor of the visiting Utes.
Washington State won 49-37. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
Get $60 in FREE MEMBER football picks at Doc's Sports - no obligation. Click Here. A trusted name in handicapping since 1971.

Get the best college football predictions offered free daily.