Tuesday, November 19
OHIO (-5.5) by 5.64 over Kent State - I wouldn't touch this game if it weren't for a trend line that puts Ohio up by nearly 13 points. But the Bobcats have played horribly in their last two games, losing at Buffalo and at Bowling Green by a cumulative 79-3. Kent has simply been a disaster all year.
Kent State won 44-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Thursday, November 21
Unlv (-1.5) by 2.80 over AIR FORCE - The Falcons are 2-8, 0-6. The Rebels are 5-5, 3-3 and attempting to clinch bowl eligibility. The trend line has UNLV winning by 5.88.
UNLV won 41-21. The computer won SU, won ATS
Saturday, November 23
Bowling Green (-24) by 29.99 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - BGSU is tied with Buffalo atop the MAC East and goes to Buffalo next week for what should be a de facto division title game. EMU has lost every MAC game by at least 25 points, aside from last week's 35-32 OT loss to lowly Western Michigan. The Eagles have allowed over 50 points in 5 of their MAC losses and BGSU owns the league's best scoring defense and total defense.
Bowling Green won 58-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.
STANFORD (-30.5) by 38.73 over California - This game could be like a vacation for the Cardinal which is 8-2 against the nation's 4th-toughest schedule according to the Congrove Computer Rankings. Cal is 1-10 against the 2nd-toughest schedule. They can claim this is a rivalry game ("The Big Game") and that anything can happen, but it really can't. Stanford will absolutely win and the only question is whether or not it can score more than its 30.4 per game average.
Stanford won 63-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Usc (-21.5) by 22.84 over COLORADO - USC looks like a completely different under Ed Orgeron than it did under Lane Kiffin. The Trojans have reeled off 4 straight wins and made it back into the computer's top 25 at No. 25. Aside from its win over lowly Cal this past week, the Buffaloes have lost to every other PAC-12 team by at least 22 points this season.
USC won 47-29. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Duke (-5) by 7.80 over WAKE FOREST - Duke is playing lights-out football right now and is likely headed to the ACC Championship game versus Florida State. The Blue Devils were actually slim underdogs in the preseason by 0.72 points vs. the Demon Deacons, but are now favorites on the trend line by more than 16.
Duke won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.
East Carolina (-6.5) by 11.84 over N. C. STATE - The Pirates were 4.69-point preseason favorites and have climbed to 11.84. The trend line is even greater at nearly 19 points. East Carolina ranks 25th nationally in scoring defense and 10th in scoring offense. N.C. State ranks 73rd and 97th in those categories.
East Carolina won 42-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.
FAU (-20) by 23.83 over New Mexico State - It might not be a quick and easy blowout, but the Aggies do own the nation's worst defense, statistically speaking.
FAU won 55-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Marshall (-33) by 34.62 over FIU - The trend line on this game is over 48 points. Marshall has erupted for 5,062 yards of offense this season while FIU has 2,234. The Herd have scored 428 points to FIU's 101. The Golden Panthers are not horrible on defense, ranking 9th in CUSA and 80th nationally for yards allowed per game, but rank 111th for points allowed.
Marshall won 48-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.
FLORIDA STATE (-56) by 61.25 over Idaho - Really, the only question is whether or not Florida State will plays its starters, 2nd team and 3rd string (how about an all walk-on squad) long enough to score enough points to cover this spread. I was going to back off completely on selecting this game just because it's 56 points that need be covered, but FSU has won its last 2 games by identical 59-3 scores over Wake and Syracuse and barely dropped a bead of sweat. The computer's trend line is an insane 82.64 points.
Florida State won 80-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Middle Tennessee (-22.5) by 24.29 over SOUTHERN MISS - MTSU is a nearly 32-point pick on the trend line. Southern Miss ranks 97th on defense and the offense averages just 294 yards and 12 points per game. FAU has scored 15 points or less in 9 of its 10 games and only managed single digits in 3 of those.
Middle Tennessee won 42-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Smu (-4.5) by 8.13 over USF - USF has a decent defense, but also owns the most unproductive offense in the American Athletic Conference. SMU tops the conference in total offense and passing offense.
SMU won 16-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.