|The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
|2008 Regular Season: 72-19 SU (.791), 52-39 ATS (.571)
Last Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 6-2 ATS (.750)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 6-1 ATS (.857)
Tuesday, November 18th
Northern Illinois (-3.5) by 3.52 at KENT STATE - Jerry Kill has NIU on the cusp of bowl eligibility at 5-5 as it visits a 3-7 Kent State team. The Huskies will employ the MAC's top-ranked defense to slow down the conference's 3rd-ranked offense.
Northern Illinois won 42-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Saturday, November 22nd
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-1) by 2.73 over Arkansas - The bottom two teams in the SEC's Western division square off with the Bulldogs favored by a single digit, less than home field advantage.
Mississippi State won 31-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.
RUTGERS (-17) by 24.77 over Army - Rutgers has awakened from its' slumber and won each of its' last three games against Pitt, Syracuse and USF by at least 18 points and as many as 33. The disparity between the odds and the computer projection indicate the computer thinks Army is no match.
Rutgers won 30-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.
CINCINNATI (-4.5) by 7.47 over Pitt - Cincinnati is 0-5 all-time vs. Pitt, 0-3 since joining the Big East, but the Bearcats have shaken monkeys off their backs the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, they beat West Virginia for just the second time in 12 tries. Last week, they beat Louisville for just the 2nd time in 11 tries while ending a 5-game losing streak to the Cardinals. Both teams have won 7 of their last 8 games.
Cincinnati won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.
VIRGINIA TECH (-17) by 18.88 over Duke - Despite having a down year, the computer is still 7-2 ATS on Virginia Tech games. Duke has lost three straight after a 4-3 start.
Virginia Tech won 14-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
TROY (-7.5) by 13.96 over Louisiana-Lafayette - Troy leads the series 4-1, and the computer is 8-1 ATS with games involving the Trojans this year. The Ragin' Cajuns haven't defeated a team with a winning record since Houston on Oct. 7, 2006. Troy won last year's match 48-31 at Lafayette.
Troy won 48-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Boise State (-6) by 11.46 over NEVADA - Boise State has won 8 straight over the Wolf Pack, though last year's game was a 69-67 thriller in four overtimes. Both teams average nearly 38 points per game, but Boise State is 2nd nationally in points allowed with 10.3 while Nevada ranks 93rd with 30.6.
Boise State won 41-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.
|HOLD YOUR HORSES:
|The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
|2008 Regular Season: 59-15 SU (.797), 40-34 ATS (.541)
Last Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 1-4 ATS (.200)
Wednesday, November 19th
Ball State (-7) by 3.4 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN - Two-time defending champion Central Michigan (8-2, 6-0) would clinch a third straight appearance in the MAC championship game with a win, so Ball State (10-0, 6-0) needs a victory just to stay in the hunt for its' first conference title since 1996. The Cardinals lead the MAC in total offense, and are second in total defense. Ball State is also first in points scored and points allowed. CMU is 22-2 in its' last 24 conference games, including two conference championship matches, and has won 9 of its' last 10 conference home games. The Chippewas have won four straight in the series after losing the previous four.
Ball State won 31-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Explanation: We do not recognize a "push" because a tied line between
the computer and official oddsmakers is declared as a "bet" for
the underdog. On the cover side, the team must exceed the spread; on the under side, it must be at or under the spread. (See How results are scored).
Saturday, November 22nd
TCU (-19) by 18.03 over Air Force - I pick this game only because it's a fairly big number, but the computer isn't exactly in overwhelming disagreement with the 19-point spread from the "experts". The Falcons are the top rushing team in the conference, but the Horned Frogs are 2nd. TCU only allows 39.5 rushing yards per game while the AFA has given up 135.8. Air Force won last year's meeting 20-17, but TCU won the previous four and is 4-2-1 all-time against the Falcons.
TCU won 44-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
HAWAII (-23.5) by 22.15 over Idaho - Hawaii's largest victory margin this season was 21 points over FCS member Weber State on September 6. Most recently, the Warriors beat New Mexico State by 12 in their last outing on November 8. Idaho beat NMSU by 6 on October 25. The computer is 6-3 ATS with Idaho, 5-4 with Hawaii.
Hawaii won 49-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
PURDUE (-13) by 10.72 Indiana - This is the 84th meeting between these two schools as they battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. Purdue has dominated the series and leads 56-24-3. Both teams are 3-8 overall, 1-6 in the Big Ten, this season so a 13-point pick seems far too generous to Purdue. The Boilermakers' two victories against FCS teams this year were by 7 points (Central Michigan) and 6 points (Michigan). Statistically, Purdue doesn't appear to have enough offense to run away from Indiana, and the Hoosiers have enough offense to be able to keep it close - maybe even pull out their second straight win in the series after losing five in-a-row. Purdue head coach Joe Tiller announced before the season began that this would be his final year. He is 86-62 in 12 seasons with the Boilermakers, and is 125-92-1 when you include his 6 seasons at Wyoming from 1991-1996.
Purdue won 62-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
RICE (-8.5) by 4.73 over Marshall - The computer is 7-2 ATS with Marshall, 6-4 with Rice. The only conference teams the Owls have defeated by more than 7 points are Tulane and SMU, both of which sit at the bottom of the conference. The Herd has produced a mixed bag of results that include a 23-21 loss at hapless UAB, and a 37-23 win over Houston for that teams' only loss in its' last six games.
Rice won 35-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
|The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category.
Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
|2008 Regular Season: 35-48 SU (.422), 41-42 ATS (.494)
Last Week: 3-4 SU (.429), 4-3 ATS (.571)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 6-2 ATS (.750)
Saturday, November 22nd
OHIO by 1.88 over Akron (-3) - Akron average about 50 yards more per game on offense, but surrenders 65 more with the conference's lowest-ranked defense. The computer has 6-4 ATS with Ohio, and 8-1 with Ohio.
Ohio won 49-42. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Oregon State by 1.80 over ARIZONA (-3) -The PAC-10 title is in Oregon State's hands if it wins at Arizona (6-4, 4-3) on Saturday, and then wins at rival Oregon in the "Civil War" on December 6. The Beavers (7-3, 6-1) have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with the Wildcats.
Oregon State won 19-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Fau by 1.70 over ARKANSAS STATE (-5.5) -Louisiana-Lafayette blew a golden opportunity to move closer to the conference title when it fell at FAU 40-29 in a game that was 40-7 at one point. That loss thrust the Owls (5-5, 3-2) back into the conference title picture, and also kept Arkansas State (4-5, 2-2) and FIU (4-5, 3-2) in the mix. The computer is a horrendous 2-6 ATS with Arkansas State, but is 7-3 with FAU.
Arkansas State won 28-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Boston College by 2.58 over WAKE FOREST (-2) - Wake Forest (6-4, 4-3) and Boston College (7-3, 3-3) are still in contention for the ACC's Coastal division title. The Deacs are a 1/2-game behind Maryland, and the Eagles are a game behind. Maryland has a tough home game with Florida State. Those who have been following the weekly gyrations of the ACC know this is one to keep an eye on. The computer is 5-4 ATS with B.C, and just 4-6 ATS with the Fighting Baptists.
Boston College won 24-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Ucf by 1.27 over MEMPHIS (-4.5) - UCF gained 6 wins from 2006 to 2007, going from 4-8 to 10-4. This year, the Tarnished Knights are just 3-7 with two games left to play and could wind up with a 7-win deficit from last season. In the meantime, no one else has really stepped up as CUSA is almost as jumbled as the ACC with teams continually trying to play themselves out of the title. Memphis is just 5-5 overall, 3-3 in the conference, and still mathematically alive for the East divisional berth in the conference championship game. The computer is 3-6 ATS with UCF, 6-3 with Memphis.
UCF won 28-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.
WYOMING by 1.29 over Colorado State (-2.5) - Colorado State can (5-6, 3-4) can become bowl eligible with a win in Steve Fairchild's first season as head coach. Wyoming (4-7, 1-6) just wants to end on a good note. The computer is 3-7 ATS with the Rams, 6-4 with the Cowboys.
Colorado State won 31-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Florida State by 1.39 over MARYLAND (-1) - See the notes next to the BC-Wake game in this section. The home team has won the last five meetings and Maryland is 6-0 at home this year. However, Florida State is 4-0 away from home. The computer is 4-4 ATS with the 'Noles, 6-3 with the Terps.
Florida State won 37-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Tennessee by 1.33 over VANDERBILT (-3) - Vanderbilt (6-4, 4-4) became bowl eligible last week, but is striving to finish with 8 wins to match the 1982 team that was the last Vandy unit to go bowling. Tennessee (3-7, 1-5) would finish with its' lowest victory total since 1924 if it doesn't win one of its' last two games.
Tennessee won 20-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.