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11/15/11-11/19/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 82-24 SU (.774), 57-49 ATS (.538)
This Week: 6-5 SU (.545), 3-8 ATS (.273)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 17
VIRGINIA TECH (-13) by 13.84 over North Carolina - The Tar Heels have lost three of their last four games, including 13-0 at N.C. State in their last outing. Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas has 17 total TD's in his last 5 games (10 passing, 7 rushing). The computer is 7-2 ATS with North Carolina and 5-4 with the Hokies.
Virginia Tech won 24-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 19
BUFFALO (-10) by 10.63 over Akron - The Zips have lost 3-of-4 on the road, and 6-of-9 overall, by more than 10 points. The Bulls are only 2-8, but Akron is still that bad.
Buffalo won 51-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-14) by 21.21 over BAYLOR - The Sooners were only a 17.04-point pick in the preseason and the computer's margin has now increased to 21+. The computer is 6-2 ATS with Baylor and 6-3 with Oklahoma.
Baylor won 45-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Ucf (-8) by 9.97 over EAST CAROLINA - The computer is 7-2 ATS with the Knights and 6-4 with the Pirates ATS. ECU gets 74.8% of its offensive yardage through the air. UCF tops Conference USA in pass defense and ranks 18th nationally.
East Carolina won 38-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA STATE (-17.75) by 19.43 over Virginia - The computer is 8-1 ATS on Virginia games. These teams have met 8 times in Tallahassee and FSU has exceeded this spread in all but one of those games (1996).
Virginia won 14-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Hawaii (-4) by 6.63 over Fresno State - The computer is 6-3 ATS with Hawaii and 5-4 with Fresno State. The Warriors are getting home field advantage and nothing more while the Bulldogs have played themselves out of bowl contention (3-7). Hawaii is 5-5 but needs 2 more wins to become bowl eligible because of its 13-game schedule.
Fresno State won 24-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-30.5) by 31.74 over MISSISSIPPI - The Rebels have suspended both its starting QB and leading rusher for this game. The computer is 8-1 ATS with the Bayou Bengals and 6-3 with Ole Miss.
LSU won 52-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTHWESTERN (-15.5) by 19.69 over Minnesota - The computer's forecasted margin of victory for Northwestern has only moved fractionally since the preseason. The computer is 5-4 ATS with the Wildcats and 6-3 with the Gophers.
Northwestern won 28-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Washington (-3) by 5.80 over OREGON STATE - The Beavers are assured of posting their worst back-to-back seasons since 1997 (3-8) and 1998 (5-6). Oregon State was 5-7 last year and can do no better than 4-8 this season. Washington can get to 8 wins with victories this week and next week against Washington State in the Apple Cup rivalry game at Qwest Field in Seattle.
Oregon State won 38-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS

RICE (-12.5) by 13.10 over Tulane - Tulane has lost each of its last four away games by at least 21 points and, in fact, has lost its last 3 away games by exactly 21 points.
Rice won 19-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Tulsa (-13.5) by 16.43 over UTEP - The Golden Hurricane are on a 6-game winning streak in which only the game at UCF was won by less than 17 points. The computer is 7-3 ATS with Tulsa and 6-3 with UTEP.
Tulsa won 57-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 61-19 SU (.763), 37-43 ATS (.463)
This Week: 3-2 SU (.600), 3-2 ATS (.600)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 19
UCLA (-14) by 5.47 over Colorado - The computer is 8-2 with UCLA against the spread.
UCLA won 45-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TCU (-35.5) by 29.88 over Colorado State - The computer is 6-2 ATS with the Rams and 6-3 with the Horned Frogs.
TCU won 34-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS (-7) by 5.74 over Kansas State - The Wildcats lead the series 6-5 after taking the last three meetings. The computer is 6-3 on Texas games, but just 4-5 on KSU contests.
Kansas State won 17-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Western Kentucky (-2.5) by 0.36 over NORTH TEXAS - The computer is 7-2 ATS with games involving the Hilltoppers. The Mean Green are 3-1 at home with the only loss coming to Houston.
Western Kentucky won 31-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OHIO STATE (-5.5) by 3.93 over Penn State - The computer is 7-3 ATS with the Buckeyes and 7-2 with the Nittany Lions. Penn State ranks 10th in the conference on total offense while Ohio State ranks 11th. The Nittany Lions are 3rd in defense while the Buckeyes are 5th.
Penn State won 20-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-34 SU (.414), 28-30 ATS (.483)
This Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 1-4 ATS (.200)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 19
CONNECTICUT by 2.56 over Louisville (-1) - Both teams are in contention for the conference title in the annual Big East scramble, despite the fact that the Huskies are just 4-5 overall and the Cardinals are 5-5. The computer is 5-4 SU with UConn and only 4-6 with Louisville.
Louisville won 34-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

LA.-MONROE by 0.61 over Fiu (-1) - FIU is one of three bowl eligible teams in the Sun belt, but the Golden Panthers are only 6-4 while Arkansas State and La.-Lafayette each have 8 wins. Thus, FIU may need to win its last 2 games just to get a sniff of a bowl invite. The problem for FIU is that the homestanding Warhawks may only have a 3-7 record, but 3 of their losses have been by 5 points or less to the three best teams in the league - Arkansas State, Western Kentucky and La.-Lafayette.
FIU won 28-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

PURDUE by 0.31 over Iowa (-2.5) - Last week's shocking overtime upset win over Ohio State lifted the Boilermakers to the break-even mark at 5-5 overall and 3-3 in the conference. Iowa is also just 3-3 in the Big Ten and 6-4 overall. Purdue is 5-1 at home this season and is 4-1-1 at home vs. Iowa since 1994.
Iowa won 31-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

USF by 2.55 over Miami, Fla. (-1.5) - A loss at home last year to USF cost Randy Shannon his Miami head coaching job. Now, it's up to new head coach Al Golden to try and exact some revenge. The Bulls picked up their first Big East win of the season last week at Syracuse while Miami lost to its biggest in-state rival, Florida State. Both teams need 1 more win to become bowl eligible.
Miami won 6-3. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TENNESSEE by 2.43 over Vanderbilt (-1) - Tennessee is winless in the SEC (0-6) and just 4-11 in conference games under Derek Dooley. The Vols finished last season with consecutive wins over Mississippi, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Unfortunately for them, Vandy and Kentucky are all that's left on the schedule and the Commodores (5-5, 2-5) aren't all that bad, and Tennessee must win each of those games to become bowl eligible.
Tennessee won 27-21 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.





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